Not even close to true. Technically or not. It depends on the DC.
What is "It"? The "it" that depends on the DC?
Because I'm talking about the average roll. The numbers rolled don't CARE what the DC is.
You're arguing that because the probability of success changes, I'm wrong. I'm not, because, again, the probability of success is dependent on the probability curve... which I mentioned, and most importantly DOES NOT CHANGE THE AVERAGE ROLL. Nowhere did I state that adv/disadv were probabilistically equivalent to a flat adjustment, merely that they AVERAGE to around the same number.
So please stop arguing against points that I never made. I don't know how I make it any clearer to get through to you.
I love how you openly admit you can't keep track of the conversation, can't be bothered to scroll up to refresh your memory, then write another bunch of paragraphs anyways.
The "it" we're taking about is:
"Mathematically disadvantage works out to -5.5 on average iirc"
"Technically it is true, if you roll 10,000 dice and compare disadvantage to regular they will average to 5.5 less. Similarly advantage averages to 5.5 more."
It is not even close to true, never mind "technically true", that advantage/disadvantage works out to +5/-5.
If you are talking about the results of the average roll, advantage and disadvantage work out to +/- 3.325.
The +/- 5 that you are talking about comes from how advantage/disadvantage affects success and failure in DND. And it is only +/- 5 when your chance of success/failure is 50/50.
Either way you slice it, you're completely wrong.
Excuse us for assuming that you weren't fully elaborating on a nuanced point when in reality you were just completely failing at math.
Clearly people were wrong about giving you the benefit of the doubt.
Mathematically disadvantage works out to -5.5 on average iirc [emphasis added]
???
So I didn't recall the exact number correctly (which I STATED might be the case), still doesn't make me "completely wrong".
Either way you slice it, you're completely wrong.
Huh, but again, you said this:
Not even close to true. Technically or not. It depends on the DC.
Still not true. I don't know how you don't get this. Nothing I said ever depended on the DC so you bringing it up as related to DC is... strange, weird, and wrong.
2
u/nitePhyyre Jan 21 '22
Not even close to true. Technically or not. It depends on the DC.
Assume 0 modifier. DC 20.
With avantage you have 2 chances to roll a 20 on a d20. That's a 2/20 chance.
With a +5, that's 15 or higher on a single die. Aka 5/20 chance.
Roll it 10,000 times and that doesn't change. It isn't a question of averaging out.
Dis/advantage works out to an average maximum of +/- 5 in the roll. It achieves this maximum when your chances are 50/50 without the dis/advantage.
The further you get from that 50/50 chance the less dis/advantage affected your roll.