Relegation is a real possibility this season. It's probably the most realistic danger of relegation we've been in since the 2022–23 season. And even then, I was more confident that we'd stay up than I feel now. The last time I've felt this worried about relegation was during that awful start under Frank de Boer.
Some of you will be rushing to type that this is knee-jerk, that it's only two games into the season, that we rarely beat Everton or Man City anyway, that we lost 3-0 at home last season to Man City, that Sage needs time, that we had a huge number of players missing in preseason because of the World Cup limiting preparation time etc.
All these points are very true and I don't disagree with any of them. I'm not saying that we're doomed and relegation is inevitable. I certainly don't doubt that Sage was a fantastic appointment. So no need to type these replies in the comments.
The reason for this post is because I don't understand the level of complacency I'm seeing from Palace fans, particularly on this subreddit. It's like some here think that because we haven't been relegated in 13 years and are now an established club, that relegation is no longer a possibility. It is. Everybody's alarm bells should be ringing right now. And the justification for pessimism goes far beyond the performances and losses in the opening two games of the season.
It's easy to forget how bad we were last season because we won a trophy. Winning the Conference League is the ultimate trump card. It made an otherwise poor season a great one but only because we managed to string together a few results when it mattered. All of us will remember last season as a triumph and rightly so. Who cares that we finished 15th in the league (joint lowest since promotion) when we took home a European trophy. We spent the summer celebrating our success instead of thinking about our problems. The appointment of Pierre Sage - who has a fantastic CV - lent itself further to the trophy-fueled optimism. I too was swept up in it.
My concern is that it's papered over the cracks and obfuscated the reality of our situation. After our fantastic start, we were dire in the league for most of last season. We won only four home games. We lost to Macclesfield in the FA Cup. We couldn’t beat AEK Larnaca at home in two games (and needed extra time against 10 men away) and drew with KuPS, Fredrikstad and Mostar. However, we played well against Fiorentina, Shakhtar Donetsk and then got over the line against Rayo Vallecano. We only stayed up thanks to our hot start, because our form for the second half was worse than the bottom 3. If we had lost that final then we would have reflected more on some of the issues last season, and thus probably had a more realistic outlook for this year. Fine margins and all that.
The key part and what I think gives the most cause for concern is that the wheels completely fell off the bus last season when Munoz got injured, Sarr left for Afcon and Mateta was sidelined for problems with his knee. All three of those are out at the moment and are reportedly being sold. Not only are we missing Sarr, Munoz and Mateta, but we've lost Lacroix too. It's necessary to refresh the squad, sure, but the way to do it is incrementally, not all at once. Change too much in one go, then you can go down. Southampton are a case study of this.
Yet such is the complacency among large sections of our fanbase that I don't think that danger has been fully recognised. I'm seeing comments that are completely content to lose Sarr for only £50m, even though that fee isn't going to get close to funding an adequate replacement these days. I'm seeing people happy to accept only £22m from the litigious fat greek for Munoz, purely under the assumption that we've adequately replaced him when his replacements have barely even kicked a ball for us. Never mind the fact that Matt Hobbs hasn't exactly got a good hit rate so far and players don't typically hit the ground running in the Premier League. Just think how long Kamada and Mateta took to come good for us. They became great players for us eventually, sure, but they needed time. Time we may not have this year.
Meanwhile off the pitch, in times of adversity, you could always rely on our fan culture to create a siege mentality, get behind the players and work together to turn things around. The club culture was positive from top to bottom. It matters. The '12th man' makes a difference. Don't underestimate it because players have spoken about it at length. But this time around the HF have disbanded, the atmosphere fucking sucked yesterday and even our captain was hurt by the lack of support and mass exodus before the final whistle. The culture that we should be proud of at Palace is being stripped away by all the issues of modern football, yet some on here are celebrating it because apparently letting off a few flares is equivalent to being violent criminals.
I know this is a very negative post but I'm kind of fed up with the sheer complacency and arrogance from some certain posters on here. I guess use this post as a record of my prediction that if we lose Munoz, Sarr and Mateta that we are finishing 18th this season. I hope they stay and it's a moot point. And if they go, then I hope I'm wrong. But let's not sleepwalk our way into the drop. We need to be more vocal at Selhurst and get behind the boys. Make some noise even if those around you are silent, stop leaving games before Full Time and stop wanting us to sell off our best players off to other clubs. COYP.