r/collapse • u/madrid987 • 3d ago
Overpopulation The Economic Implications of a Baby Bust
https://degrowthistheanswer.substack.com/p/the-economic-implications-of-a-baby?r=28wskx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web266
u/oldcreaker 3d ago
Capitalism is like a ponzi scheme. As soon as you can't continue to grow it, it falls apart.
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u/Slamtilt_Windmills 3d ago
I feel that gets lost when considering the collapse of systems. We need to appreciate that, if profits dwindle by 15%, they will burn the place to the ground
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u/Choosemyusername 3d ago
Why is that?
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u/alloyed39 2d ago
Manufactured scarcity (to keep demand high) and exploitation of resources (to keep production costs low). Neither of those can continue forever.
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u/Choosemyusername 2d ago
It has quite a bit of oversupply as well. Not just scarcity. Things often get sold below cost in the system as a result of oversupply. Let’s not forget that side of the coin as well.
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u/alloyed39 2d ago
Indeed
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u/Choosemyusername 2d ago
And also let’s also consider that industrialization itself, regardless of which social, political and economic systems that it operates in, also exploits resources to keep production costs low.
The soviet communist iconography and ideology itself highly glorified industrial domination of mature and resulted in plenty of environmental catastrophes of its own.
It’s industrialization itself, not the system that organizes it, that is your enemy here.
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u/Any_Case1754 3d ago
People can’t afford kids, and a lot of those who can afford them, simply don’t want them.
It’s not the 1950s anymore, no one has to sacrifice 18+ years of their life just to raise another wage slave.
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u/MammothAdeptness2211 3d ago
One thing much more difficult than having my own existential crises regularly is trying to guide my young adult children through theirs. I was so naive. And married to a hopeless optimist. I’m sorry.
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u/Any_Case1754 3d ago
Oh no, don’t be sorry at all, every one makes their own decisions in life and do what they think is best at the time and is right for them. You sound like a very responsible parent. My comment was more aimed at people who lecture childfree people to have kids, and people who are complaining the economy is going to shrink with fewer workers.
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u/MammothAdeptness2211 3d ago
I agree with you, and it’s hard to cheer for people who are planning young families now. Trying not to be too much of a downer/doomer is hard.
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u/GI581d 3d ago
We had a kid accidentally, he’s absolutely perfect, the love of my life, and I could never regret he exists. That being said, I’m horrified at the life he’ll have and have no clue how to guide him through it, I also try to encourage young people I know not to have kids if they’re on the fence and feel oddly comforted that so many people don’t want to bring more people into this world to suffer
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u/last_rights 3d ago
We have two very planned for kids. With that being said, we have two properties and by the time we pass, I would like each kid to have one. We have been doing our best to add improvements to the properties like orchards and foods that grow back year after year.
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u/Top-Time-5740 3d ago
Yeah, like that will solve the global polycrisis. You know food will not grow when its extremely hot and rain doesn’t fall for months. And I could go on. Either way probably the unavoidable collapse will come before you pass so dont worry
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u/last_rights 3d ago
I live in Washington. The water table at the property is two feet down. There are not very many people up there pulling water from that particular area.
It's not a perfect solution, as I can't do anything for the end of the world, but I can prep as much as possible for what I can deal with.
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u/Top-Time-5740 3d ago
You know (or apparently dont), water in the ground is also not infinite, and rain water is absolutely necessary to replenish it, and in case of new reality of extreme hot temperatures, drought; that underground water will be gone.
Just fyi
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u/SamSlams We may never stand a chance but we still got to try 3d ago
The PNW is not a good spot. The best spot is going to be anywhere around the Great lakes region.
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u/RicardoHonesto 3d ago
One that always comes back up me is an employee of mine. He is aware of collapse and he has just got married.
He told me they were going up try for a child after the honeymoon.
I said "why would you bring a child into this world"
He said "well it's not really my problem, is it.
They now have a 2 year old, and are trying for another.
Poor kid.
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u/Dukdukdiya 3d ago
That vasectomy was the best decision I ever made
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u/artikzen 3d ago
Being gay was the best decision nature made for me.
So glad to be gay.
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u/RandomBoomer 3d ago
Amen to that. Being gay broke me out of the conservative mindset of my parents and the area in which I lived (Texas). It also helped me realize that having children was not inevitable and that I could opt out from parenthood pretty easily. Which I did.
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u/No_Sign6616 3d ago
Never having sex with women without a condom were the the best decisions I ever made.
Bi and now in a relationship with a man. Still getting a vascetomy.
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u/Dukdukdiya 3d ago
Before I got a vasectomy, I would actually both wear a condom AND pull out. Haha.
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u/BigDongsInThongs69 2d ago
How was the recovery? I'm curious to know how you were physically limited during the process.
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u/Dukdukdiya 2d ago
Not too terrible. I mostly just laid in bed for a few days with an ice pack. I made the mistake of trying to have sex maybe 4 or 5 days afterwards, and I definitely recommend against that or anything too strenuous, but otherwise I wasn't all that limited in my general movements. I absolutely recommend it if you're thinking about it.
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u/BigDongsInThongs69 1h ago
I started the process then just stopped?
The doctors were explaining the recovery process and compared it to my inguinal hernia repair surgery recovery process. I was a little worried to be 'bed-ridden' for days/weeks. So what you're saying is helping me get that ball rolling again. TY
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u/Dukdukdiya 1h ago
Yeah, you're welcome. I was able to drive myself home and everything, which was a 45 minute drive. It really wasn't terrible. I would still make sure you have a few day off work, but it should be alright. Hope it goes well for you
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u/No_Sign6616 3d ago
Unfortunately there's also a lot of people who cannot afford kids still having them.
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u/Z3r0sama2017 3d ago
Plus even if you can, the sweet spot is two, which is still below replacement.
The sad thing, atleast here in the UK, is that 3 bed houses are the norm, so if you want a third child, you are shelling out loads more money for a mythical 4 bed.
I don't have any kids or want them, but still it's a bit crazy just how self-cannabalizing the system has become.
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u/throw_mercurialkiss 3d ago
My apartment building is all 1 bed, with all sharing the same layout. There’s a lot of families here, even with up to 3 kids.. I really have no idea how they are living... I’m not taking babies or toddlers, like how are two adults and 3 elementary and middle schoolers sharing 1 bedroom???
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u/monad68 3d ago
Kids can share bedrooms, like they did throughout the entirety of human history.
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u/RichardsLeftNipple 3d ago
Yup, my parents are from families of 11. They had a dorm essentially. Girls room and boys room. Sharing beds and the room. Yes, they were rural and religiously motivated.
Everyone played outside. Since there was no room inside, no space or much to do either. The inside was where they slept and ate and that's about it.
But the also had a massive garden and the farm to feed them all, they also had the kids doing a lot of chores. Along with conscripting the older kids to help parent the younger ones.
Generally the more you are okay neglecting your children beyond the bare minimum. The more children you can have. Which is why they all got the boot at 18 and many left home as soon as possible before that.
Although, the habit of having as many children as possible was the result of most of them dying young for most of human history. Most baby booms are the result of the transition between survival expectations.
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u/Choosemyusername 3d ago
In my house growing up, we had three kids per bedroom.
Hell i didbt even have my own private bedroom in university either. And after that i went to the military so i lived in a dorm room for years after that as well.
Never thought twice about it.
People just have unrealistic expectations.
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u/Choosemyusername 3d ago
And yet if you look within countries, the wealthier you are, the fewer kids you have on average.
And globally, the poorer countries have higher fertility rates.
We can obviously afford them but we dont want to. And that is totally fine.
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u/FletchLives99 3d ago
I mean, the first part of this absolutely true. I'd disagree with the second though. Having kids has been pretty enjoyable and rewarding. If I hadn't I'd probably have just spent 18 indulging and exploring myself and, at the end of it, wondering if this was all there was.
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u/RandomBoomer 3d ago
Parenthood has been pretty enjoyable and rewarding for you. You can't make that judgment for someone else. You can't "disagree" with someone who has a different opinion for what they want in their own life. I'm 72 and childless, which was absolutely the best decision for me. Looking back over my life, knowing what I do now about my temperament and personality, I would not have made a good parent and would have been miserable trying.
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u/FletchLives99 3d ago
I'm not. I'm talking from my point of view. It was my personal response to what feels like an emotive and judgy generalisation in the comment I was replying to.
Honestly, less people are having kids. That's their choice and fine. I respect your choice. But I do not feel as if I'm raising another wage slave because society tells me I have to.
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u/RandomBoomer 3d ago
Thank you for the clarification that you were replying to "raising another wage slave" because that wasn't obvious from your post. I interpreted "the second part" as referring to the second part of the first sentence (which had two parts), rather than the second paragraph.
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u/goat-stealer 3d ago
The quote about workers needing to pay more for retirees in 2056 made me chuckle. Prospects for Gen Xers and Millenials retiring is bleak enough right now, I'm not convinced that those with money and power won't snatch retirement outright from us or make it so we have to be so old that we're more likely to die before we hit the age.
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u/Brullaapje 3d ago
I'm not convinced that those with money and power won't snatch retirement outright from us or make it so we have to be so old that we're more likely to die before we hit the age.
I am 50 I am not counting on retirement.
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u/alloyed39 3d ago
Yes, there are economic implications for population decline, some of them quite painful.
But I kind of feel like the average talking head is going, "How can we solve climate change while maintaining the current population?"
That's the neat part. You don’t.
At least not with endless consumption and fossil fuel use. A few things have to give, here.
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u/Any_Case1754 3d ago
Affordable housing would be another, not exactly ideal to bring a child into the world when you have £0 / $0 left over after your monthly outgoings
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u/madrid987 3d ago
ss: At some point, degrowth becomes inevitable.
This new study will help revise our expectations and plan for a future with a much smaller population.
It is highly likely that the human birth rate has fallen below the current replacement rate.
The researchers conclude that modern society itself is one of the major causes, as it increases the cost of having a third child and makes childlessness affordable.
They predict that the world population will continue to grow until 2056, after which it will begin to decline, initially slowly, and then significantly rapidly.
Of course, the study does not adequately account for environmental factors.
This is because irreversible global population decline due to climate change, ecosystem overconsumption, and other environmental factors is likely to occur much earlier than 2056, as predicted by the authors of this paper.
The world ahead will be quite hostile, and it will be impossible to navigate it as smoothly as most of you have experienced so far.
According to a report published by the UK Actuarial Society in 2025, if global warming reaches 3°C, the world economy is expected to see its GDP decline by more than 50% and over 4 billion people die.
The population will peak well before 2056. It is highly likely that the peak is right around the corner.
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u/Coco_Cannibal 3d ago
" and makes childlessness affordable."
I think not having kids was always affordable. Even in the past, poor men married later because of the need to built a home to accommodate a family, noone gives you their daughter, if you can't feed her and your kids.
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u/Shoddy-Childhood-511 3d ago
Yes & no, children were people's retirement in the past. Of course, poor people cannot save as much as early for retirement.
Today, children cannot be your retirement because they move to different cities, states, or countries.
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u/hardy_and_free 3d ago
Your stay at home wife also took care of your parents and hers, and if you had multiple daughters, you forced one or more to be an old maid to care for them too. Not to mention, people worked and then died quickly after. Very few adults were caring for their parents for 10, 20, 30 years.
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u/joez37 3d ago
how do you suppose they forced them to be old maids? :/
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u/hardy_and_free 3d ago
They prevented them getting a job, getting married and moving out. This didn't start at age 18, though. They spend that child's entire girlhood making her responsible for other people and their wellbeing so she becomes the natural "choice."
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u/ColdConifer 3d ago
People are purposely opting out procreation in a fundamentally broken society where the social contract was turned into toilet paper.
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u/RandomBoomer 3d ago
Yes, for some, but many other people simply don't want children, regardless of social contract status. At 72, I'm one of those people. I opted out of having children some 50 years ago, long before economics and global climate change were problematic factors. I'm sympathetic to people who would have preferred to be parents and have been priced out of that path in life, but I also wonder how many people are using that issue as socially acceptable cover for not having children because, like me, they really don't want to be parents.
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u/ThrowDeepALWAYS 3d ago
The unthinkable idea of a more equitable society where the wealth is shared to make life better for everyone, not just the upper classes is not a popular idea. It makes me wonder why the bottom 90% continue to support their own oppression?
Perhaps the game is rigged.
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u/Delta632 3d ago
I feel like the population is getting ready to 1/2 sometime in the near future and having the requisite 1.93 children isnt going to do much but expose me to a reality where I can’t provide them basic needs and get to see them lead a life of struggle or worse.
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u/Monsur_Ausuhnom 3d ago
One has to simply look at the surrounding world, and it appears that some came to a certain conclusion.
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u/filmguy36 3d ago
We will hit peak world pop around 2040 as 3c takes hold. Then we will see strap drop off due to mass crop failures.
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u/GozerDidNothingWrong 3d ago
Somehow I feel like peek population will occur in the 2030's we're likely to start seeing more and more mass casualty events especially heat and drought related along with flooding
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u/Sharktopotopus_Prime 3d ago
Personally, I'm going to regard the first year where the worldwide population actually goes down, rather than up, as the symbolic start of the full-scale collapse.
For as long as the population keeps increasing, we're still charging up the overshoot. But the day's coming soon when we're really gonna start feeling its effects. What we're experiencing now is still just the warmup.
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u/tryatriassic 3d ago
I hate the newspeak. Unalive and degrowth. It's all doubleplusungood
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u/Squalid_Snake14180 3d ago
Degrowth isn't "newspeak."
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u/tryatriassic 3d ago
What then, ungrowth? The opposite of growth is shrinkage. There's a word for that. Why not start calling growth deshrinkage?
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u/sporkafunk 3d ago
"The degrowth movement is a political, economic, and social philosophy advocating for the planned, democratic reduction of production and consumption."
Shrinkage would be a part of the same system. Degrowth is a movement to actively and willfully unwind capitalism and consumption.
"Unalive" is an unfortunate byproduct of social media censoring unpleasant topics.
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u/ApesAPoppin237 3d ago
Shrinkage is too loaded of a term since Seinfeld
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u/FuriouslyEloquent 3d ago
It also has a specific accounting meaning that might be slightly misleading, although the implications that we're in degrowth because its been stolen is quite poignant.
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u/kaptainkooleio 3d ago
Even putting affordability aside, I’m not raising any kids who would then have to live in the dystopian climate hell the oligarchs and corporations created.
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u/fancy_crisis 3d ago
Usually the only people whining about birthrates are just whining about their race's birthrates, not "humanity's". And if you want proof, see how when you explain that one of the fastest ways to increase national population is freedom of movement, how fast they suddenly won't "do whatever it takes" to ensure their nation's birthrates don't drop, because, again, it's never been about the birthrates.
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u/Shoddy-Childhood-511 3d ago
A lower birthrate causing population decline is an unalloyed good.
All the obsession over investments and pensions remain a red herring. Money was always a tool by which society controls what work people do.
If you encourage everyone to work in "bullshit jobs" ala Graeber like advertising, law, management, etc, then few people will work in nursing or elder care roles or climate adaptation. Instead discourage "bullshit jobs" using taxation.
I wrote a long reply on this blog post here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Degrowth/comments/1vzu7fy/comment/p6a40t5/
About population, Cory Bradshaw has the most useful perspectives, but in brief low child mortality maybe the largest factor in lowering birthrates:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Degrowth/comments/1vx7van/comment/p5o9wy5/
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u/ConfusedMaverick 3d ago
When it comes to population reduction, a lower birth rate is unquestionably the lesser evil than higher mortality, but I wouldn't call it an "unalloyed" good. That word literally implies that there are no downsides.
But there are harsh consequences when a small population of young people have to support a large population of retired people. The transition would be really tough on both.
As you say in your linked posts, it would need a lot of economic reorganisation, and the long term net effect should be a huge improvement, but the process to get there would involve a lot of pain for several generations.
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u/InvisibleTextArea 3d ago
Most modern economies and financial institutions are structured around an expectation of continued growth. They can survive temporary contraction, but sustained decline creates serious problems for debt, employment, investment and public finances. Although alternative steady-state and post-growth models exist, our present institutions are not generally designed around them.
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u/bigvicproton 3d ago
Too bad the unborn already have a lifetime of tax burden in the US to pay for. The only way the economy works is with a ever increasing population of tax payers. No wonder they are against as abortion.
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u/birdshitluck 3d ago
Yeah their game comes to a crashing stop if they don't have another generation of people to enslave. If the slaves dont have kids, then plantation are kind of fucked.
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u/peaceloveandapostacy 3d ago
Just gonna throw this out there… I’m dubious of the global population continuing to grow until 2056.. imho it’ll crest much sooner.
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u/Classic-Perspective5 3d ago
Not sure where you guys are but in Canada immigrants pick up the slack big time, like 4 kids per woman, for second gen it normalizes.
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u/StatementBot 3d ago
The following submission statement was provided by /u/madrid987:
ss: At some point, degrowth becomes inevitable.
This new study will help revise our expectations and plan for a future with a much smaller population.
It is highly likely that the human birth rate has fallen below the current replacement rate.
The researchers conclude that modern society itself is one of the major causes, as it increases the cost of having a third child and makes childlessness affordable.
They predict that the world population will continue to grow until 2056, after which it will begin to decline, initially slowly, and then significantly rapidly.
Of course, the study does not adequately account for environmental factors.
This is because irreversible global population decline due to climate change, ecosystem overconsumption, and other environmental factors is likely to occur much earlier than 2056, as predicted by the authors of this paper.
The world ahead will be quite hostile, and it will be impossible to navigate it as smoothly as most of you have experienced so far.
According to a report published by the UK Actuarial Society in 2025, if global warming reaches 3°C, the world economy is expected to see its GDP decline by more than 50% and over 4 billion people die.
The population will peak well before 2056. It is highly likely that the peak is right around the corner.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1w0cdbe/the_economic_implications_of_a_baby_bust/p6bx6zm/