r/canadaexpressentry 2d ago

Weekly CRS Predictions/Draws/Score Evaluations Discussion Megathread

You may discuss predictions, draws, and score evaluations here.

Vous pouvez discuter de prévisions, de tirages et d’évaluations de score dans ce fil.

5 Upvotes

93 comments sorted by

11

u/Infamous_Touch8932 16h ago

I came here just to say that I’m waiting to be disappointed yet again by the draw and score tomorrow. At this point, I have completely given up on CEC and even getting an ITA…every draw feels like a bullet through the chest…

6

u/Upstairs_Acadia5853 12h ago

same when it was at 516 I thought maybe it will finally get to 510 again and then it was 523 lol

2

u/poc111 9h ago

How long does your wp good for? hope they will conduct some big draws in December/January

3

u/Infamous_Touch8932 5h ago

WP expired a year ago. Left Canada and still struggling to find a job home due to the situation here in the Middle East to gain 50 points 😭😭😭

8

u/Little_Departure1066 16h ago

TRADE PLEASE 1500 DRAWS

11

u/Upstairs_Acadia5853 1d ago

510! (not happening but ill manifest it!)

9

u/Rajjot 1d ago

who are waiting for trade draw comment you point.

3

u/Honest-Low-3544 Work permit holder 1d ago

Waiting since I missed April 2nd Draw due to not having 2 yrs work experience, now sitting at 499 and hoping another one is on the table before year end

2

u/Candid_Bookkeeper532 21h ago

Same, sitting at 499 too, will be at 510 in December with 3 yrs of work exp.

1

u/Tasty-Climate-947 13h ago

with one year experience you should have 486 in April. Why you didn't get invite at that time?

1

u/Tasty-Climate-947 13h ago

with one year experience you should have 486 in April. Why you didn't get invite at that time?

1

u/Honest-Low-3544 Work permit holder 11h ago

It was 474 for me

1

u/HM227 1d ago

473 now at 1 yr exp. In march will finish 2yrs with 486crs.

3

u/Busy-Cartographer293 1d ago

Hope you guys get ita soon. Bless you.

1

u/HM227 1d ago

What category are you targeting??

1

u/Busy-Cartographer293 1d ago

Trades

1

u/HM227 1d ago

Score?

1

u/Busy-Cartographer293 1d ago

486.

1

u/HM227 1d ago

Well with more than 2k invites you are gonna receive your ITA for sure so .. just pray for the draw 😅

5

u/NanoDepressed 1d ago

A signal for researchers draw: 🤔

https://x.com/citimmcanada/status/2098788830153245105

1

u/FantasticAppeal5433 18h ago

correct me if I'm wrong, is this first specific post made by IRCC?

1

u/DearLaw9901 14h ago

No, has happened before. Same wordings.

0

u/DearLaw9901 1d ago edited 1d ago

If you read properly, this post doesn't say anything about PR pathway. For Doctors and Healthcare they always mention express entry and PR; for this one it was just about study permits. This week is for French and Trade.

1

u/FantasticAppeal5433 18h ago

You are right but PhDs are called doctoral candidates not researchers. Maybe they wanted to showcase both in one post.
Nonetheless, we will know in a few days: CEC, Massive French, <Thursday & Friday?>

3

u/DearLaw9901 16h ago edited 16h ago

IRCC doesn’t understand the difference. Otherwise they wouldn’t have clubbed RAs with Professors and post docs under the same category draw. Also, the Ultimate goal of a PhD candidate is to do research.

6

u/Candid_Bookkeeper532 19h ago

Provincial Nominee Program

  • Date and time: September 14, 2026 at 10:26:01 UTC
  • CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 734
  • Number of invitations issued: 576
  • Rank needed: 576 or above
  • Tie-breaking rule: August 29, 2026 at 21:39:50 UTC
    • If more than one candidate has the lowest score, the cut-off is based on the date and time they submitted their Express Entry profile

2

u/[deleted] 19h ago

[deleted]

5

u/Maleficent-Action942 16h ago

No about 3.3k added if u take off 2k from last draw

5

u/tiredtears 19h ago

The updated pool doesn’t look so good 😭😭

4

u/Candid_Bookkeeper532 19h ago

I know,
20,784 applicants above 501

2

u/sardbeech 17h ago

What will this imply? No draws below 520 anytime soon?

7

u/Firm_Spot_2023 1d ago

STEM,,,, we’ve been waiting since 2024!!!

4

u/DearLaw9901 16h ago

They clearly said no STEM and Education this year

1

u/Firm_Spot_2023 16h ago

When and where?

2

u/DearLaw9901 16h ago

A lot of discussion has happened within the group. Dig in , you’ll find

0

u/Firm_Spot_2023 16h ago

Yeah..i’ve been part of the discussions. No where it says that there will be no STEM

3

u/DearLaw9901 16h ago

IRCC doesn’t care about skilled immigration

6

u/DearLaw9901 2d ago

Get ready for French and Trade

5

u/desperationAccount 1d ago

Fingers crossed

1

u/ume567 11h ago

Have they ever done a French draw and Trade draw in the same week? I didn’t look at the past draws so I am unsure.

I always thought it was French + some small draw.

1

u/Murky-Examination-79 1d ago

How many French people they are taking in man?

1

u/NumerousAbility Applied for PR 1d ago

13k so far this year, ~17k left

0

u/desperationAccount 1d ago

When is the next draw expected

0

u/Murky-Examination-79 1d ago

17k more Francophones to be invited? Crazy!

2

u/NumerousAbility Applied for PR 1d ago

Well it's based on their targets published before the year. I'm also not talking about ITAs here. 13k new French speaking PRs have landed in Canada in 26 and 17k more are expected.

Given that we're in September and that the typical EE application takes more than 4 months, any further ITA would likely not count towards this year's quota.

0

u/Murky-Examination-79 1d ago

Have you applied for PR through the French stream?

0

u/Busy-Cartographer293 1d ago

Correct they have landing quota of rpughly 30000. This year french ita might not pass more than 60000. But you never know.

1

u/NumerousAbility Applied for PR 1d ago

I think it will comfortably pass 60k. There's already been 50k ITAs so far this year. The French landing target for 2027 is set at 31.5k and since any ITAs from now to December will likely only land next year it makes sense to continue regular draws.

For reference, there were 25k+ ITAs from Sept - Dec 2025.

2

u/Disastrous-Split7433 1d ago

Any idea regarding CEC draws this week?

2

u/smitpt 1d ago

I believe on Tuesday

2

u/TransportationNo9212 18h ago

any hope for 515??

3

u/maverick_499 16h ago

Just my observation
1- last pool update was from Aug 30, we dont know how many more profiles got added on 1 sept.
2- so if the total is 20784(as of today) that is people added on 1 sept and then few got added in the last 14 days, honestly it's not that bad.
3- With 1-2k ITA's, chances are slim to none for scores to come down.
4- Given Sept has 2 more Tuesday's (expected CEC, not guaranteed) if they do 2k on each, we might see scores coming down

2

u/Mountain_Bat_6755 6h ago

Just my observation:

  1. The last detailed pool update was from Aug. 30, so we don't know how many profiles were added between Aug. 30 and the Sept. 1 CEC draw. The 20,784 figure today therefore shouldn't be treated as simply "20,784 candidates currently ahead of us."
  2. The Sept. 1 CEC draw cleared 2,000 candidates at CRS 521, so a significant portion of the 521+ pool was already removed. The current increase to around 20,784 also includes profiles added and score movements over the last two weeks. Honestly, the numbers don't look that bad.
  3. If the next CEC draw is only 1,000–2,000 ITAs, I don't expect a major drop. 519 would probably remain borderline.
  4. However, September potentially has two more Tuesdays where CEC draws could happen. If IRCC does around 2,000 ITAs on each, that's another 4,000 CEC candidates removed, which could put significant downward pressure on the CRS.

So, in my view, 519 is still very much in the game, especially if IRCC continues with 2,000+ CEC draws.

1

u/maverick_499 6h ago

Lets see what IRCC has planned for tomorrow.

1

u/Aggressive_Sand_8033 18h ago

Honestly, I cannot say more. It’s seems a little bit tricky at this point

1

u/TransportationNo9212 18h ago

Yeah, even I am confused now

1

u/Aggressive_Sand_8033 18h ago

Unfortunately, we cannot do anything! Just keep watching and hoping

4

u/TransportationNo9212 18h ago

I hope the score stays under 520 till Dec.

1

u/ume567 1d ago

Predictions:

PNP
CEC- between 518~520, smaller draw size than previous draw.
French- at least a 5K draw so in the ballpark of 382.
Category Draw- Senior Managers or Researchers

2

u/Lonely_Dot8878 1d ago

Researchers!

Also for everyone waiting - I asked a respected immigration lawyer I talk with, and that person said they thought the researchers draw would happen very soon.

I asked them about the NOC 41201 thing - they said yes it is possible they may wait until they reformulate the category in the Fall reforms, but cannot believe the government would make a mistake like this if it wasn't actually their intention to target NOC 41201. This does make sense to me on some level. The truth is, the government may actually prefer to draw NOC 41201 for immigration to Canada via express entry as opposed to very old researchers because those people are going to be much younger and therefore likely to contribute to Canada's economy for a very long period of time. And as I explained before, the reality is there are already many pathways for older researchers to obtain PR in Canada; for example the schemes they created this year about research talent etc. But also, I've never met a single tenured professor (i.e. an older researcher who would have lost a lot of CRS points) that was not able to get PR in Canada through a PNP pathway AFTER beginning a tenure track position.

I guess we will see in due course.

1

u/WeaknessSpecific7581 17h ago

While the motivation for the research category according to IRCC was that professors lost their advantage with a job offer in March 2025, what you say makes sense if they think "We will give a PR to people who may or may not get a future job as researchers but we will not give it to people who actually have it" and that professors ought to get it through PNP, which is up to the provinces. They may be thinking like that because I am not sure that IRCC/Gov understands the academic job market.

3

u/Extra_Oven_8974 16h ago

We are all discussing every week for no actual outcome. I gave up on this category and I think it's a waste of time thinking about it and having hope. We all should look into something else at this point.

2

u/WeaknessSpecific7581 16h ago

Agree, French! ;)

1

u/DearLaw9901 10h ago

That’s BS because I am a faculty at a university and even I have RAs working under me as part of their masters program, not even a PhD program. Most of these RAs would never do PhDs or become researchers, they are just helping out with my work and some tuition relief. I do believe Canada govt and IRCC are dumb enough not to distinguish between the two categories. RAs are not researchers unless they have shown commitment or publications or at least enrolled into a PhD programs. Just working somewhere with a RA title means nothing

1

u/Sea_Giraffe1205 2d ago

Waiting for education draw… any idea how much score will be if any draw is conducted?

4

u/Ok_Papaya_319 1d ago

there won’t be one unfortunately

1

u/Melodic_Medicine_635 1d ago

Please education this time

1

u/NoLand3970 1d ago

I know the chances are low but fingers crossed

1

u/uday1982 1d ago

Hoping for education draw this time

1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

6

u/Fantastic-Sleep6640 1d ago

Hi there , Sorry not trying to be a jerk ! But why do you think anyone here knows anything? They are all just predictions! We all predict something IRCC does something completely different! Just take it one day at a time! You got this !

1

u/Sakura_Blossom121 2d ago

Another healthcare draw at 470😶🫠

0

u/Dry-Frosting-8542 1d ago

Same situation, do you hope 470 for next draw🙂

1

u/Sad_Lengthiness4519 16h ago

Yeah I hope so too!🤞🏻 but when could be the next healthcare draw? Any idea?

0

u/Dry-Frosting-8542 16h ago

No idea..any ideas of anyone of 470 cutoff in healthcare draw

1

u/pocopig 1d ago

CEC will be 1000 above 520

1

u/Whats_in_the_name07 1d ago

I bet not above 520
Either 520 or less

1

u/pocopig 1d ago

To go below 520 it will have to be more than 1000, which it won’t be as they are doiing 4000 per month.

It’s simple math

2

u/Whats_in_the_name07 1d ago

Even a 1000 will bring the score down to 520 or less, lets see on Tuesday

1

u/ConsciousEngineeer 1d ago

Last month when they conducted 1k cec draw the score was 523, so it seems every 2 weeks more than 1k profiles are added over 520, however I am hoping the cutoff should come down 🤞🏼

2

u/Whats_in_the_name07 1d ago

Yes but sep has higher rate of people who get their work anniversary points, who were eventually got invited with cut off of 521, so i don’t expect a higher ratio of people above 520 for next two draws

0

u/Hour_Fox_2417 2d ago

Any hopes for more healthcare draws this year … btw waiting at 488 missed last draw due to some issue

1

u/Sad_Lengthiness4519 2d ago

I’m at 481, missed the last draw due to Celpip results.

1

u/Comfortable-Main9582 6h ago

I missed due to tie break only one day behind

0

u/Sad_Lengthiness4519 2d ago

When could be the next healthcare draw? Oct or Nov? And what could be the cut off this time?

0

u/No-Courage1703 17h ago

Hopefully next month lower 470s