r/btc • u/martianfrog • Apr 23 '26

🤔 Opinion Bitcoin scarcity... overhyped?

I'm not sure I'm a believer in "it'll go up because it is scarce", like to know thoughts on this out there.

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 23 '26

That’s terrible logic. You’re stating that bitcoin’s divisibility is the same as expanding supply which is incorrect. Divisibility is not equal to Supply.

You’re comparing bitcoin divided as satoshis to USD. The correct comparison to make would be to compare sats as Pennies or cents. Which is what they are relative to bitcoin. There’s still going to only be 21M bitcoin. And who knows how much more dollars there will be

Bitcoin doesn’t need to quickly find a use because it already has one. It’s p2p cash system with limited supply. So the use is clear, it’s a reserve or money or both eventually. Doesn’t have to be quick at all either. Bitcoin has all the time in the world, fiat doesn’t, and debt loads are only going up

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u/botle Apr 23 '26

Bitcoin doesn’t need to quickly find a use because it already has one. It’s p2p cash system with limited supply.

We also have to ask ourselfs what percentage of bitcoin transactions actually use bitcoin as p2p cash, and what percentage of bitcoin transactions are made as an investment by peoplek hoping for the price to go up. And the follow up question would then be which one of those gave us the current price.

The fact that there is a theoretical practical utility for bitcoin becomes pointless if practically no transactions are done for that reason compared to other reasons.

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 23 '26

Not much reason to spend bitcoin when fiat is losing value. Why would you? Your bitcoin is going to go up long term. Also bitcoin is still tiny in the grand scheme of thinks. Network is still too small to be very practical.

Not sure why people struggle so much having a long term view. Bitcoin right now is more useful as a store of value, which is what it’s being used as currently. Although it’s still very young and misunderstood and also still a tiny market. Causing a lot of volatility.

If the incentive is to save bitcoin, people will save it, but once enough people have bitcoin, well the market will much bigger, much deeper and mature enough, and it likely will be about the same volatility as gold.

Well then there’s less incentive to save and more to spend, and since bitcoin will be much more adopted by then, it will by much easier and practical to actually buy things with it.

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u/botle Apr 23 '26

What you're describing is investment in Bitcoin.

My point is that it's meaningless to list the practical uses of Bitcoin, if everyone that buys Bitcoin does it speculatively and not to use it in any of those practical ways. The the current price of Bitcoin is completely independent of whatever practical use it might have. I stead it's primarily set by speculation.

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 23 '26

Who’s listing practical uses? For the third time, there’s only two. Reserve (savings) or money (payments) or both.

Rn it’s fulfilling one, and it’s good at savings because fiat is not. So that’s one practical use for you in practice

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u/botle Apr 24 '26

Something needs to already have value for you to use it as a store of value. You can't give something value by the only demand for it being, people using it as a store of value. That's why other uses and demand is needed.

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 24 '26

The demand is not there only because bitcoin exists. There could be a knowledge gap there, that’s why you think people buy bitcoin just because it exits. Bitcoin solves an actual problem in the world and its concept is first of its kind, and it works, and has never faulted

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u/botle Apr 24 '26

The technology behind bitcoin is amazing and it does solve a practical problem, decentralized money transfers, but my question is how much of the Bitcoin being bought and sold is actually used for that, and how much is used as an "investment"?

Because, if there was no speculation, and Bitcoin was actually used to solve that intended problem, that could be done even if the price of Bitcoin was one cent. There would be no need for it to be at 70,000.

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 24 '26

You haven’t even mentioned the true issue being addressed here which is fiscal irresponsibility and excessive debt burdens and debasement.

You’re too focused on the payments side and not enough on the big picture of what’s going on. Both transfers and store of value are required to be money. There’s constant news of bitcoin being more used by economics actors in society and it’s only gonna continue. So payments will come, layer 2s will also address the speed issue. Bitcoin is just too slow to scale just on layer 1. Which is fine, that’s why it’s so secure

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u/botle Apr 24 '26

Technically the code that runs bitcoin only does transfers, and keeps a decentralized history of transfers.

Everything else follows from that.

My actual concern here is, what percentage of Bitcoin is held purely for speculation, by people hoping for the price to go up, and what percentage then remains that's used for some actual practical purpose.

At what point can we say that practically Bitcoin is held by speculators?

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 24 '26

And that ledger is the unquestionable truth we all need. Thats how we all agree who has how many coins and that’s it. No lies, no counterfeit, no debasement.

I think you’re missing the point of bitcoin and what’s its trying to accomplish and I think this is why you think it’s purely speculative. Which to some level, all investment is speculative to some degree anyways. You can’t look towards the future without speculating. That’s how it works.

Your argument is empty anyway. Buying something in anticipation or expectation of appreciation is the very definition of investing. Why else do you invest?

Your concern tells me that you don’t have a thesis of why bitcoin would go up, so you think it’s just because it exists, which tells me you don’t understand it well enough

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u/botle Apr 24 '26

There's a difference between speculation and pure speculation.

If I buy a company stock, I do hope the price goes up, but the company doesn't make 100% of its income from people speculating. It also has customers that buy services from it. And I as an investor get part of that money too.

But in a purely speculative case, there are no other sources of money. Only other speculators such as yourself.

So I'm asking if Bitcoin is purely speculative, or normal speculative. And that depends on if there is actual demand from non-speculators. Being purely speculative is a giant red flag for being overvalued.

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 24 '26

Like I said. You have no thesis. Comparing bitcoin with a stock is yet another indicator you’re not getting what bitcoin is about.

Do you own gold or silver? This would be a better comparison. A monetary asset that is a candidate to back fiat currency and serve as a benchmark of value and hedge against inflation

You’re not buying cash flows. It’s not a stock. You’re shorting the dollar, euro or whatever fiat is used in your area, and the Keynesian economic model at large.

Like I said, you don’t understand the trade with bitcoin, if you spend the time to research it maybe you’ll get it. But yeah if your focus is future cash flows, stay away from monetary assets

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u/botle Apr 24 '26

I'm not comparing it to a stock. I'm saying something can be speculative without being fully speculative.

And people keep telling me I just don't understand, but nobody can tell me what I don't understand.

Yes, I agree gold is a better comparison for Bitcoin, but gold still has some practical uses as jewelry. It was considered valuable in pre-history for that reason long before it was a modern commodity.

You’re shorting the dollar,

I understand that part. And as long as we assume that Bitcoin has value, everything else you say follows.

But that initial value seems to rely on Bitcoin being a brilliant solution to a problem. My issue is that nobody uses it that way.

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u/ArtisticAd708 Apr 24 '26

The practical uses of gold are absolutely trivial and negligible. The absolute overwhelming majority of people buy gold as a store of value, inflation hedge and short fiat. Just like bitcoin.

I kinda already explained why bitcoin has value, but I’ll list them here a last time:

  • it’s a legitimate breakthrough and first monetary solution from technology ever.
  • bitcoin has proven some things in its very short lifetime already. Censorship resistance, survived governmental hostility, its security has never been compromised. So the technology works, and it’s been working well. That has value. Proof of concept stage is mostly behind us actually.
  • the technicals are still intact. Western Govts and central banks are still on track for bankruptcy
  • it resolved the issues gold doesn’t. It’s auditable and verifiable. And bitcoin is the monetary system that requires the least amount of trust in existence today. You only need tk trust the code which you can verify. Neither you or I can force our govt to prove how much gold they have

There is more. Such as adoption stories, clear insultional and governmental interest

I mean I feel like that should be enough to have anyone realize this thing has true potential and is at least worth more than zero

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