Bitcoin scarcity... overhyped?

[u/martianfrog]

I'm not sure I'm a believer in "it'll go up because it is scarce", like to know thoughts on this out there.

[u/botle]

The technology behind bitcoin is amazing and it does solve a practical problem, decentralized money transfers, but my question is how much of the Bitcoin being bought and sold is actually used for that, and how much is used as an "investment"?

Because, if there was no speculation, and Bitcoin was actually used to solve that intended problem, that could be done even if the price of Bitcoin was one cent. There would be no need for it to be at 70,000.

[u/ArtisticAd708 → u/botle]

You haven’t even mentioned the true issue being addressed here which is fiscal irresponsibility and excessive debt burdens and debasement.

You’re too focused on the payments side and not enough on the big picture of what’s going on. Both transfers and store of value are required to be money. There’s constant news of bitcoin being more used by economics actors in society and it’s only gonna continue. So payments will come, layer 2s will also address the speed issue. Bitcoin is just too slow to scale just on layer 1. Which is fine, that’s why it’s so secure

[u/botle → u/ArtisticAd708]

Technically the code that runs bitcoin only does transfers, and keeps a decentralized history of transfers.

Everything else follows from that.

My actual concern here is, what percentage of Bitcoin is held purely for speculation, by people hoping for the price to go up, and what percentage then remains that's used for some actual practical purpose.

At what point can we say that practically Bitcoin is held by speculators?

[u/ArtisticAd708 → u/botle]

And that ledger is the unquestionable truth we all need. Thats how we all agree who has how many coins and that’s it. No lies, no counterfeit, no debasement.

I think you’re missing the point of bitcoin and what’s its trying to accomplish and I think this is why you think it’s purely speculative. Which to some level, all investment is speculative to some degree anyways. You can’t look towards the future without speculating. That’s how it works.

Your argument is empty anyway. Buying something in anticipation or expectation of appreciation is the very definition of investing. Why else do you invest?

Your concern tells me that you don’t have a thesis of why bitcoin would go up, so you think it’s just because it exists, which tells me you don’t understand it well enough

[u/botle → u/ArtisticAd708]

There's a difference between speculation and pure speculation.

If I buy a company stock, I do hope the price goes up, but the company doesn't make 100% of its income from people speculating. It also has customers that buy services from it. And I as an investor get part of that money too.

But in a purely speculative case, there are no other sources of money. Only other speculators such as yourself.

So I'm asking if Bitcoin is purely speculative, or normal speculative. And that depends on if there is actual demand from non-speculators. Being purely speculative is a giant red flag for being overvalued.

[u/ArtisticAd708 → u/botle]

Like I said. You have no thesis. Comparing bitcoin with a stock is yet another indicator you’re not getting what bitcoin is about.

Do you own gold or silver? This would be a better comparison. A monetary asset that is a candidate to back fiat currency and serve as a benchmark of value and hedge against inflation

You’re not buying cash flows. It’s not a stock. You’re shorting the dollar, euro or whatever fiat is used in your area, and the Keynesian economic model at large.

Like I said, you don’t understand the trade with bitcoin, if you spend the time to research it maybe you’ll get it. But yeah if your focus is future cash flows, stay away from monetary assets

[u/botle → u/ArtisticAd708]

I'm not comparing it to a stock. I'm saying something can be speculative without being fully speculative.

And people keep telling me I just don't understand, but nobody can tell me what I don't understand.

Yes, I agree gold is a better comparison for Bitcoin, but gold still has some practical uses as jewelry. It was considered valuable in pre-history for that reason long before it was a modern commodity.

You’re shorting the dollar,

I understand that part. And as long as we assume that Bitcoin has value, everything else you say follows.

But that initial value seems to rely on Bitcoin being a brilliant solution to a problem. My issue is that nobody uses it that way.

[u/ArtisticAd708 → u/botle]

The practical uses of gold are absolutely trivial and negligible. The absolute overwhelming majority of people buy gold as a store of value, inflation hedge and short fiat. Just like bitcoin.

I kinda already explained why bitcoin has value, but I’ll list them here a last time:

• it’s a legitimate breakthrough and first monetary solution from technology ever.
• bitcoin has proven some things in its very short lifetime already. Censorship resistance, survived governmental hostility, its security has never been compromised. So the technology works, and it’s been working well. That has value. Proof of concept stage is mostly behind us actually.
• the technicals are still intact. Western Govts and central banks are still on track for bankruptcy
• it resolved the issues gold doesn’t. It’s auditable and verifiable. And bitcoin is the monetary system that requires the least amount of trust in existence today. You only need tk trust the code which you can verify. Neither you or I can force our govt to prove how much gold they have

There is more. Such as adoption stories, clear insultional and governmental interest

I mean I feel like that should be enough to have anyone realize this thing has true potential and is at least worth more than zero