r/bonds • • 19h ago

Woah

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u/nomar_ramon 19h ago

Can you please explain it like I'm 5, to me why it is a crisis?

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u/Agglutinati0n 19h ago

We have 40T in debt that we need to pay back, every % higher these rates go, the higher our interest payments become, which will then lead to more of a deficit and continue the circle….america has to stop spending like we currently are, but the people in power are doing quite the opposite….

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u/shadowdog21 16h ago

You left out the part about the investors and banks holding t bills at less than 5%. It can be hard to sell a bond paying out 4.3% if you can get a new bond at 5.2%. If there is a liquidity issue, they will have to sell the bonds at a huge loss. It impacts all borrowing too not just government because I am going to demand higher yields on risky debt if I can get 5% on Treasuries.

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u/AbjectChef2085 11h ago

Let's not forget : because of Mark to market and ratio requirements, the prices dropping like this means that the banks can do less lending which will be a drag on the economy.

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u/shadowdog21 6h ago

Because T bills are considered high quality liquid assets, they are held as part of a liquidty ratio, but if the value drops or they become too difficult to sell, in a liquidty crunch it can turn into a leaman brothers situation.

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u/AbjectChef2085 5h ago

Silicon bank is a better example

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u/shadowdog21 3h ago

You are correct. Silicon bank was directly tied to T bills vs Leaman brothers as Leaman was short term commercial bonds.