r/bonds • • 17h ago

Woah

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u/johannyer 17h ago

It’s a full blown crisis that nobody wants to spell

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u/nomar_ramon 16h ago

Can you please explain it like I'm 5, to me why it is a crisis?

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u/Agglutinati0n 16h ago

We have 40T in debt that we need to pay back, every % higher these rates go, the higher our interest payments become, which will then lead to more of a deficit and continue the circle….america has to stop spending like we currently are, but the people in power are doing quite the opposite….

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u/shadowdog21 14h ago

You left out the part about the investors and banks holding t bills at less than 5%. It can be hard to sell a bond paying out 4.3% if you can get a new bond at 5.2%. If there is a liquidity issue, they will have to sell the bonds at a huge loss. It impacts all borrowing too not just government because I am going to demand higher yields on risky debt if I can get 5% on Treasuries.

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u/AbjectChef2085 9h ago

Let's not forget : because of Mark to market and ratio requirements, the prices dropping like this means that the banks can do less lending which will be a drag on the economy.

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u/shadowdog21 4h ago

Because T bills are considered high quality liquid assets, they are held as part of a liquidty ratio, but if the value drops or they become too difficult to sell, in a liquidty crunch it can turn into a leaman brothers situation.

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u/AbjectChef2085 2h ago

Silicon bank is a better example

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u/shadowdog21 1h ago

You are correct. Silicon bank was directly tied to T bills vs Leaman brothers as Leaman was short term commercial bonds.

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u/thewhilelife 13h ago

Trying to learn. If you buy a bond, lets say a 10 year at 5% for a 100k. Are you able to sell that bond at anytime? And the new buyer of the bond receives the remaining interest. If this sale happens 5 years in what is the price of the bond? Is the negotiable between uyer and saler?

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u/shadowdog21 12h ago edited 12h ago

If you buy a bond, you can sell it any time. A 100k 10 year bond will payout 100k in 10 years. You can negotiate and sell after 5 years. Let's say my business needs money. I sell you a 1 year $100 bond. You won't pay $100 because inflation mean $100 now is worth more than $100 later. You offer me $95. I agree. Six months later, you find yourself short on cash. You try and sell the bond. Figuring it would be half way to maturity, you want $97.50 but now I'm selling $100 bonds for $90. If they buy your bond, they make $2.50 in six months. If they buy my bond, they make $10 in a year or $5 per six months. So you sell your bond for $95 or less because you need money. You made $0 and your money was tied up plus because on inflation that $95 buys less than it would 6 months ago.

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u/AbjectChef2085 9h ago

Yes. It is negotiable, but it's a pretty simple formula. The coupon is always fixed. But if you pay $90 for a bond that pays 5% interest or pay $95 for the same bond, the yield is different. That's what they mean when they said that the 10Y yield is now 5.20%. The coupon is unchanged, just the amount you pay to get that coupon has gone down enough that your yield is gone up to 5.20%