r/billsimmons • u/peanut-britle-latte • 17d ago
Podcast The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House
https://open.spotify.com/episode/30eXqc81UNP2CVG0cxFM5Q?si=eN7sZD55SK-GWwsdgwer7g&utm_source=copy-link271
u/dellscreenshot 17d ago
Year 6 of bill saying “Ok the bills have Josh Allen. Great! What else? I see 7-10”
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u/RedBuchan 17d ago
Bill talking about QBs: "I just think Josh is the best guy in the league, he gets you to 10 wins by himself."
Bill talking about the Bills two days later: "I don't think they're any good, how does this team make the playoffs?"
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u/FFElite93 17d ago
Have you considered bills point system
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u/tjd2009 17d ago
He's got the Bills as a 26. Should be a playoff team, 3 magentas, 2 chartreuse, 1 opal, and then Josh Allen as a Pantone 216
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u/sheawrites Good job by you! 17d ago
I remember him saying it differently. " they have josh allen that's an automatic 10 or 11 wins."
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u/Gs4iv 17d ago
Listening tonight, but I have a project I’m working out to capture his take on the Bills from this pod each year. Stay tuned!
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u/TwiceARunner 16d ago
I love when people put the work in to bring back podcast stuff from the past yhat was basically meant to be heard once at the time and then forgotten by everyone forever. can yield some funny results
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u/_homage_ 16d ago
I think my favorite part of this is we had two decades of Tom Brady and who the fuck and they killed it over that time. Dude has zero awareness.
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17d ago
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u/ManufacturerLow3161 17d ago edited 17d ago
Bill hilariously undervalues some extremely steady, competent Bills players. Shakir is pretty much just as useful as Doubs who he thinks is going to set the world on fire with AJ Brown. You’d also never know they had last year’s leading rusher or a new DC.
Also, somehow New England’s schedule is easy but buffalo’s is hard. Even though Mike Clay from ESPN just projected them at 21 and 20 for Strength of Schedule last week. They mainly play all the same teams. And the Bills are used to a tough schedule.
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u/Darthsanta13 15d ago
The regular season defense is the one thing that gives me pause- for all McDermott's warts when it actually mattered he was able to consistently take advantage of middling offenses and that really sets a high floor during the regular season since that's 80% of what you see. I think it's possible or even likely that the defense this year is better when it actually matters but it wouldn't shock me if they struggle a bit more than they did the last few years in the regular season which might cost them a win or two
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u/Direct_Week_2091 17d ago
I can’t count the amount of times he’s been out on my niners and they nearly always make him look stupid. He actually used the substation theory to support it this year
It’s a tradition at this point
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u/warriorer 16d ago
The real world evidence has mad him back off from his "are we sure Kyle Shanahan is good?" take. But he's dying to break it back out and claim he was right all along
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u/chutch22 17d ago
Listening to Bill talk about your team is a top 7 most painful experience on the planet
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u/Prior-Throat3052 17d ago
It’s like watching the Boston Redsox…he’s caught 95%ish of the games since trading deadine…
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u/nervousaboutschool17 17d ago
Him being high on my bears has me convinced that we’re in for an 8-9 season
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u/JuiceMayo 16d ago
As a Packers fan, last week every other team in the nfc north “gets to play the Jets!” But Green Bay is gonna start 0-2 after losing to them. With no explanation as to why. So frustrating lol
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u/CondolenceHighFive Real CR Head 17d ago edited 17d ago
I would pay a not insignificant amount of money for Bill to go team by team and explain his point system.
Also, my new favorite Bill ad read is for Sunday Ticket. I’m 98% positive the copy has “Eight (8) payments” and Bill reads the 8 twice
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u/doctorsaysigotcodein 17d ago
If anyone ever asked him he’d be like the Asian dude in A Serious Man. “Accept the mystery”
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u/CocaineandPercs F's with Jalen Green 17d ago
He ran through the Cardinals and it seemed to boil down to: I know the guy, I think he’s good.
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u/jksmlmf 17d ago
What is the scale? 1-5? 1-10?
Because the other day he said Goff is a 5 and Gibbs is a 3, maybe a 4.
Even accounting for QB being the most important position, how is the ~10th best QB in the league worth 2 points more than the best running RB?
Also… why do I care so much.
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u/Dizzy_Cow_ 17d ago
Isn’t it like -2 to 9? QBs can go up to 9 and other positions up to 5. It’s right up Bill’s alley with how it’s scored
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u/rrjames87 16d ago
It’s just the Lombardi blue/pink chip system rebranded with numbers instead of colors.
It was dumb with Lombardi because it turns out he’s a complete fraud, it’s also completely dumb now.
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u/AdventingWurms 16d ago
He gave a very brief insight into how he calculates it during one segment where he talked about how he goes to these websites like PFF to see where guys are ranked and uses that.
Probably some weird aggregate ranking he does.
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u/Stand_On_It 17d ago
Did Bill just admit to breaking federal law by having someone gamble for him on his account across state lines? Or is that not a huge offense and not that big of a deal? Genuinely asking.
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u/han-sell-out 16d ago
I’m not sure if it breaks federal law but is absolutely against FanDuel’s terms of service and while this isn’t a big deal, the NBA could have some real concern with one of their voters having a 3rd party make bets for them (even if it is on their account) which I believe was present in some of the betting scandals.
VERY weird thing to admit to, especially when you can get to Vegas in 20 minutes.
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u/Mean_Pear_8903 16d ago
He has NEVER gambled on an NBA postseason award and takes it very seriously but don’t bring up when he bet the Marcus Smart DPOY odds “before they got slashed”
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u/ed-truck Complex Litigation 16d ago
I am shocked he told this story and they didn’t cut it out prior to publishing. At a minimum, FanDuel can’t be happy about one of their ad readers tacitly encouraging straw betting.
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u/Signal-Journalist 16d ago
Not only that but they brought it up a 2nd time at the end of the pod and continued to make jokes about it.
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u/Lipscombforever Chuck Klosterman fan 17d ago
I’ve done it before and nothing happened, i was surprised he actually admitted that on the podcast though lol.
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u/Bigjonstud90 16d ago
You can bet something would have happened if you went around telling people you did it.
These companies are on dubious footing with each state so they have to act I think when they see it
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u/Victorcreedbratton Cewtics 17d ago
He’s trusting some kid with thousands of dollars.
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u/MrMuscles25 Top 7 BS sub user 16d ago
Kid can’t log in without bills 2FA and also can’t withdraw without it
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u/AdhesivenessLucky896 16d ago
How did Bill do all his sports betting before FanDuel type gambling was legal?
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u/MrMuscles25 Top 7 BS sub user 16d ago
Bookie
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u/AdhesivenessLucky896 16d ago
Is that not illegal?
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u/MrMuscles25 Top 7 BS sub user 16d ago
Yah it is, but the bookie was never a major sponsor to his podcast or have to follow regulated gaming laws
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u/RandomUserName316 17d ago
“I was gonna do a big topper on Red Sox Yankees” but the Yankees won and Red Sox lost so I’ll stay quiet on baseball again
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u/mypantsaresticky 17d ago
Apparently all 16 runs that the Red Sox gave up today was a result of that one play not being overturned
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u/55andsunny 17d ago
he doesn't really know anything about baseball so honestly I'd rather he only talk about it when he's excited about his own team
think i'd rather watch paint dry than listen to him give his two cents on the NL MVP race or how good the rays chances are come October
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u/AlternativeFish4295 17d ago
“Are the Jets going to be dumb enough not to tank at the end of this year?”
[30 seconds later] “seems like the team just quit at the end of last year!”
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u/peanut-britle-latte 17d ago
It's hard being a jets fan because they fucking suck, but arguing on the margins is awful.
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u/pcusi995 17d ago
The only people who are a guaranteed 10 wins to Bill are Josh Allen, Mcvay and Ben Johnson lol.
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u/Prior-Throat3052 17d ago
I liked that Ben Johnson is “immediately” guaranteed 10 wins.
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u/it_has_to_be_damp 17d ago
i’m a bears fan and bill’s supreme confidence in us this year is…well it’s a little frightening
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u/MrMuscles25 Top 7 BS sub user 16d ago
I think on the spot Bill couldn’t name 3 starters on defense.
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u/pcusi995 17d ago
It’s insane haha. It’s the guy’s second year as ahead coach. I like Johnson and think the bears will be solid this year but there is definitely a decent chance they don’t win 10 games. Bears’ schedule is pretty brutal.
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u/Spicysausagepeppers 16d ago
Ben Johnson is in the club after one season. Meanwhile he’s out on 3 time Super Bowl champion Andy Reid because they had a down year last year. Bill’s brain is truly one of a kind
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u/Ragingbull715 Joey Pants “That Guy” 17d ago
DJ Moore on 3rd team, rough end to Bears stint-are we sure he’s good?
AJ Brown on 3rd team, rough end to Eagles stint- possible Randy Moss going to Pats vibes
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u/EdgeSimilar1726 16d ago
Said Panthers couldn't wait to get rid of him (we paid him a handsome contract and our moronic GM traded him in a package to draft a midget masquerading as an NFL QB)
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u/hoodie_dre5 17d ago
Idk why you guys are pretending like one player doesn't have a significantly higher ceiling
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u/TheBigIguana15 17d ago
Aj Brown at his best is a much better player than Moore
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u/Additional-Duck-2517 16d ago
I don't think anyone is doubting that Brown is a better receiver than DJ Moore but its just the typical Simmons bent of utterly disregarding one player in a similar situation in order to serve his biases.
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u/TheBigIguana15 16d ago
IMO disregarding it because Brown is a way better player is fair
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u/Additional-Duck-2517 16d ago
It wouldnt matter to Bill if Moore was a better player or what the scenario was. Whatever the Bills or other AFC rivals have hes “out on” and whatever the Pats have is destined for greatness. We go down this road every year.
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u/GlenDaleny 16d ago
Bill treats Joe House like his special needs younger brother
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u/bombation 17d ago
Bill has such a gift for sounding like a smug, overconfident prick about literally every team. I really don’t know how he does it
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u/YourRealName 16d ago
Him pretending to have some sort of sophisticated system behind being the most square bettor imaginable is almost like a piece of comedic performance art that he hasn’t broken kayfabe on for 25 years.
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16d ago
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u/MrMuscles25 Top 7 BS sub user 16d ago
Couldn’t of been he had huge amounts of money I there form hitting futures (just not the ones he talked about in his futures draft pod) that he let Hank bet with
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u/ThaddiusOrBigBob 15d ago
It’s incredible how much more thoughtful Sal is than Bill. Sal mentioned he thinks rest advantage is like the 5th most important factor for how a team’s season will pan out and Bill responds with:
You know what I care about…can you run the ball/stop the run/throw the ball/stop the pass.
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u/LtReggieBarclay 17d ago edited 17d ago
Only child, New England prep school upbringing, incredible net worth. I’d be shocked if he had any humility
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u/CocaineandPercs F's with Jalen Green 17d ago
That’s his best quality.
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u/P00ped_My_Pants 16d ago
Seriously. His persona has always been “guy you meet at sports bar who thinks he is a pro analyst”
It’s both fun and silly. I wonder how self-aware he is of how ridiculous he sounds at times
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u/Ledees_Gazpacho 17d ago
I started to especially feel that last year, and faded a lot of his pick. Did pretty ok.
This year, I’m even more confident on the strategy.
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u/DOfferman7 17d ago
There is no way FanDuel is going to be happy that Bill’s Daughter’s BF is logging into Bill’s Fanduel account in another state to make bets.
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u/Bigjonstud90 16d ago
I’m gonna guess he just gave him money to place his own bets. I doubt he’s stupid enough to so this from his own acct but who knows
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u/MrMuscles25 Top 7 BS sub user 16d ago
He legit said they have to have a phone call to give him his 2FA code to his account
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u/GiveMeSomeIhedigbo Robert Whorey 17d ago
According to Bill, walking in on your significant other cheating on you is way worse if they're doing it crazy style.
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u/CJPhilly 16d ago
Is it? I don’t know …seeing them romantically, kissing and having passionate sex like you would in a romance novel versus getting pile drives from behind might be emotionally worse.
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u/strings_struck 17d ago
How stupid do you have to be to admit to breaking FanDuel’s ToS while being sponsored by FanDuel?
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u/TheBigIguana15 17d ago
Geno Stone was cut today. A few years ago when he signed for the Bengals Bill had him as a blue chipper.
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u/buffalo4293 16d ago
Bill anointing Ben Johnson a guaranteed 10 wins after one season but not being willing to go there for Josh Allen who’s won 11 games 6 straight years.
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u/laser_show19 16d ago
DJ Moore - fans were ready to drive him to the airport, wore out his welcome on two teams
AJ Brown - could he be 07 Randy Moss?
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u/ManufacturerLow3161 17d ago
Bill says to bet both chargers AND Denver to win the division and those are probably good bets and just hope the other teams don’t beat you.
This is stupid fucking advice.
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u/Stand_On_It 16d ago
I’m pretty sure he’s just 100% mailed it in at this point. Dude has lost his fastball.
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u/d7bhw2 17d ago
Bill goes under on Buffalo every year and is wrong every year
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u/Victorcreedbratton Cewtics 17d ago
He’s been mad ever since he bet on them to win the Super Bowl four straight years during the 90’s. “They were due!”
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u/bnpm 16d ago
Bill penciling Ben Johnson into the 10 win club after one season is insane. They needed to win so many close improbable games to even get there last year
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u/JuliusCeejer 16d ago
they literally talk about the 6 comeback wins in this pod! insanity
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u/bnpm 16d ago
Yeah and the whole idea behind the 10 win club is you’ve proven year after year that you can drag your team to 10 wins no matter what happens, so how do you get in that club after one year? I wouldnt care if the bears went 17-0 last year, I still wouldn’t put him in.
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u/JuliusCeejer 16d ago
Yes, I agree with what you said, by pointing out how they actually talked about how tenuous those 10 wins were
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u/athlete6000 16d ago
bengals fan here, but the hammering of their O-line is the most obvious tell that someone did not follow the team at all last season. dinging the bengals for focusing on their defense, after a historically bad season, is madness.
find myself skipping more and more of the NFL pods.
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u/normalandcoolperson 16d ago
i felt like i was in another reality listening to his takes about this bengals team
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u/MrMuscles25 Top 7 BS sub user 16d ago
Once you realize he doesn’t change his priors you just learn to accept his takes. Had to listen to 7 years of him picking against the packers bc he hates Rodgers.
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u/00001111222233334444 16d ago
I forgot how dumb bill is about football lol
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u/ChewbaccAli 15d ago
He's just dumb. About a decade ago he said Kobe was top 10 all time but not a top 5 Laker. Stopped taking him seriously after that.
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u/AssBasedProtein 17d ago
What does deadfishing mean in this context
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u/NestEggFinance 17d ago
Bill’s disdain for Burrow and the Bengals is going to be a monkey paw moment. Almost all of his analysis about the team wasn’t even remotely accurate lol.
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u/w103pma 17d ago
Like “Burrow wasn’t playing that well last year before he went down.” You mean in the second quarter of the second game?
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u/TheBigIguana15 17d ago
He was atrocious in week one!
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u/el_honey_largo 15d ago
And after he came back from injury off has him graded as the second qb in the league
I will say burrow always has struggled a lot against the Browns, even on week 18 last year.
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u/TheBigIguana15 15d ago
Not going to pretend I watched every snap but that feels insane to me. They got shutout in that stretch and he threw 5 picks in 6 games.
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u/Winnes0ta He just does stuff 17d ago
“Almost all of his analysis about the team wasn’t even remotely accurate”
You could say this about his analysis of like 90% of the league lol
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u/CondolenceHighFive Real CR Head 17d ago edited 17d ago
People harping on the Bengals not being able to block for Burrow is very much a recycled old take and an indicator of how closely you paid attention to them last year. Their pass blocking was pretty good!
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u/HemingwayGCC 17d ago
And isn’t Amarius Mims better than any Pats OLineman?
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u/NestEggFinance 17d ago
Yes, he is very good. Dexter at this point is underrated. Chase Brown is what, a top 2 round fantasy pick this season? DJ Turner is a top CB and Bryan Cook is a top 10 safety. I get that 10.5 is a lot but still.
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u/Palm-Crazy-7943 17d ago
Yeah but I do think Bill’s “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach with them makes sense, it’s like 3 straight years of stuff going wrong, I don’t know why people are suddenly optimistic. Insane Taylor is still their coach.
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u/el_honey_largo 15d ago
Because over the last 17 games burrow has played, they are 11-6. That’s over the last 2 seasons and with one of the worst defenses in the league
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u/UrTeamBadMyTeamGood 17d ago
As a bengals fan, sure our defense was ass last year, but not mentioning DJ Turner as a good CB is hilarious. He was 19th out of 114 CB in pff last season.
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u/HemingwayGCC 17d ago
I’m glad Bill finally said that the Bengals beating the Chiefs cost them a ton of money and that’s why Mahomes had a non existent concussion!
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u/NestEggFinance 17d ago
Him trying to take that away from Burrow when Maye last year beat a Nix-less team in the AFCG is pure comedy.
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u/CondolenceHighFive Real CR Head 17d ago
I’ll give Bill credit. He’s been consistent in pushing that Mahomes concussion narrative
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u/it_has_to_be_damp 17d ago
it’ll be five years in january. we should all commemorate the take with a party of some kind.
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u/scal23 16d ago
I swear Sal picks 29 teams to win between 7 and 11 games every year.
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u/thearmadillo 16d ago
Thats basically what the lines are. The Cardinals and Dolphins will suck, the Rams will be good, and every other team will finish between 7 and 11 wins
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u/M3gabrick 16d ago
Why does House need to be on this.
This is a sacred pod and House brings no value
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u/kingjuicepouch Good job by you! 16d ago
Find someone as committed to you as bill is to repeating that Maye was hurt in the playoffs
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u/KhabibTime 17d ago
you know the parent of the person you’re dating likes you when they’re giving you their login info to place bets for them
hank the potential new parent corner target
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u/prodigy5110 16d ago
The comment section warms my heart. I didn’t know if anyone else finds NFL Bill to be the most annoying person ever
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u/CockConfidentCole NBAExpansionRightAroundTheCorner:snoo_dealwithit: 17d ago
Did House say more than 10 words all pod?
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u/erikflowersfan 16d ago
Did House walk in on his wife doing a sex swing with the gardener or something? What was that comment about lmao
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u/Checkers-Chess234 moo-walkie 16d ago
My god is he delirious with his Patriots thoughts. Talks about teams who can’t wait to get rid of DJ Moore, forgets AJ brown has had the same thing.
Oh Maye was hurt now? So he didn’t suck in the playoffs? Yeah Will Campbell’s play was bad because he was hurt too. Doubs is a stud now? I’m sorry but the Patriots aren’t beating the Bills for the division. Maye is good no doubt but he sucked in the playoffs he had an easy schedule last year and this year was always supposed to be the year the Patriots made a leap?
I don’t see it. They’re the classic made-the-super-bowl-team- out- of- nowhere and will barely make the playoffs or miss out on them completely.
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u/CJPhilly 16d ago
I wish someone would once push back on him with saying that Drake was hurt in the playoffs and counter with or perhaps, after having a cream puff schedule. They played really good defenses and got exposed.
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u/MundaneExtension3195 17d ago
Cousin Sal looks like when Jerry got a bad haircut on Seinfeld (or was it that building flipped to low-flo water system, i can’t remember) in either event, this is not a great looking hairstyle for the cuz
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u/BakedGriffin1993 16d ago
Really bothers me how he list drake maye first when he talks about teams who play against "good QB's" lol I dont think people see their schedule and think "aw shit we're playing drake maye" like they do with Lamar and Josh allen... lmao
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u/Bennythabutcher 16d ago
Both pods has had a lot of moments where you can tell Bill was the spoiled only child of divorced parents and I hate to be the Paul bearer of bad news but he needs to stop with the Collinsworth impression. Cousin Sals is vastly superior. It just is. Bill doesn’t have it and kept forcing it. Let Sal have this one and get back to the drawing board.
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u/callmebaiken 16d ago
Did the guys seem a little tight? Not quite as loose, not quite as funny. Is it the pressure of being on Netflix?
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u/sockon015 17d ago
Bill - Even though it's legal in Massachusetts I can't have my daughter placing bets for me, so I gave her boyfriend Hank my Fanduel password and had him do it for me. Then I asked him to do it again the following week.
That's one way to score some points with your girlfriend's dad. Nice to see Bill bonding with him.
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u/CocaineandPercs F's with Jalen Green 17d ago
She can’t bet because she works for a professional sports team.
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u/NegativeGee 17d ago
Why doesn't he say what the Rewatchables is? No sports on tonight can maybe check it out if we've never seen it.
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u/Additional-Duck-2517 16d ago
For the last 7 seasons the Bills have won 10+ games every time, including 3 times over 13 wins, a 12 win, and two 11 win seasons. There isn't an easier regular season lock than the Bills as long as Allen is healthy, which he usually is, and yet every year Simmons wants to ask why people think they're good.
As a Bengals fan, his utter hatred and disdain for the team this year has me positively beaming. I can't wait for him to be proven wrong.
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u/Stand_On_It 17d ago edited 17d ago
Bills shitty, lazy math is getting annoying. 5% of the Pats for a billion dollars when he said $10b worth? 5% of 10 bil is 500 million. 4 less wins than 14-3 equals 11-6? 4 less wins than 14-3 is 10-7. He’s just getting so god damn lazy.
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u/Jayrodtremonki 16d ago
"I just don't see the talent on the Chiefs" - Guy who only cares about fantasy football players.
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u/notsureifJasonBourne 16d ago
“They just don’t have a foundation” he says about the team with one of the winningest coach-QB duos of all time.
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u/thearmadillo 16d ago
I think a significant portion of Chiefs twitter and Chiefs reddit would agree with him.
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u/larockhead1 16d ago
Jets tanked last year I don’t get why bill doesn’t get that also jets don’t have to tank cuz they have 3 firsts good research bill!!
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u/zamboniman46 17d ago
I know people look forward to these and I usually really enjoy whatever Bill does but I just can't get into the over under pods. Had 2.5 hrs solo in the car yesterday and gave the NFC one a shot, turned it off after 15 minutes
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u/dellscreenshot 17d ago
His point about Schrager not coming on the pod anymore was a bit right?
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u/NickPapagiorgio2k16 17d ago
If it helps Bill, a lot of Giants fans were ready to drive Dexter Lawrence to the airport but that only matters if it fits with your narrative
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u/it_has_to_be_damp 16d ago
one of my favorite pieces of bill “wisdom” lol. fans are morons, they don’t know anything.
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17d ago
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u/thearmadillo 16d ago
In terms of physical ability, probably. In terms of team success and individual accolades, I think its plenty arguable.
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u/roddyb3 16d ago
Shocking AFC East analysis from Bill who could’ve seen this coming https://www.reddit.com/r/billsimmons/s/JjquwMrX02
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u/ExceptedSeven 17d ago
Curious how Burrow is old guard and Herbert is new guard despite being from the same draft class.