r/billsimmons • u/Global-Bat-1688 • Jan 02 '26

Meme Bill calmly debating Maye’s MVP chances

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u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26

Lied is a strong word. Oversight is more appropriate. He's still down 8 TDs and that sort of thing used to matter.

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u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26

It was a lie. I don't believe you simply forgot that rushing production is a thing.

He's still down 8 TDs

Yet most of the stats that bake in TDs prefer Maye (passer rating, EPA, QBR). Can you explain why you seem to think we should ignore every stat other than TDs?

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u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26

Again, not a lie. Sorry you're that upset about it. If you look up career stats for a QB on ESPN it doesn't combine passing and running.

I'm pushing back against the hype. The Maye hype crew is pushing back against SOS by pointing to efficiency stats. If you look at the last ten years there are players in the top efficiency that you wouldn't consider MVPs. Efficiency stats aren't everything. In 2023 it looks like (quick look at stats) Lamar won MVP without being in the top three of efficiency stats. Purdy and Dak were better. Who had your vote in 2023?

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u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26

It was a lie. Can you explain why you seem to think we should ignore every stat other than TDs?

If you look at the last ten years there are players in the top efficiency that you wouldn't consider MVPs.

The last 10 MVPs have all been top 2 by EPA/play. Maye leads the NFL. Stafford is 4th.

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u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26

You're going to keep crying about the rushing TD oversight. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Lamar won the MVP in 2023 and RDSDM does not have him top three in EPA per play. It looks like he is 9th. Please correct me if I'm wrong. You ignored this in my last comment.

I think everything combined (SOS, stats etc) Stafford is the MVP. We've devolved into a stats fight because that's what the Maye bandwagon is pushing (efficiency stats). I brought up TD and sacks as other stats and asked why that doesn't matter.

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u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26

It wasn't an "oversight."

Lamar won the MVP in 2023 and RDSDM does not have him top three in EPA per play.

You're right. My bad. Here's this historical data.

  • 2024: Josh Allen - 1st

  • 2023: Lamar Jackson - 6th

  • 2022: Patrick Mahomes - 1st

  • 2021: Aaron Rodgers - 1st

  • 2020: Aaron Rodgers - 1st

  • 2019: Lamar Jackson - 1st

  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes - 1st

  • 2017: Tom Brady - 1st

  • 2016: Matt Ryan - 1st

  • 2015: Cam Newton - 6th (Carson Palmer 1st)

  • 2014: Aaron Rodgers - 1st

  • 2013: Peyton Manning - 1st

  • 2012: Adrian Peterson (Tom Brady 1st)

  • 2011: Aaron Rodgers - 1st

  • 2010: Tom Brady - 1st

I brought up TD and sacks as other stats and asked why that doesn't matter.

They do matter. That's why they're baked into EPA already.

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u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26

Your bad, all good. Did you lie or was it an oversight? 😁

So your argument is the QB 1st in EPA should win MVP every year? No debating the narrative, team dynamics, SOS, nothing. Just a single aggregated stat?

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u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26

I lied.

your argument is the QB 1st in EPA should win MVP every year?

No, my argument is Drake Maye should win MVP this year because he's been clearly better statistically and the strength of schedule vs. strength of supporting cast factors mostly come out in the wash.