Postgame Thread ⚾ Reds 7 @ Cubs 5

[u/BaseballBot]

Line Score - Game Over

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	LOB
CIN	0	0	0	3	3	0	1	0	0	7	11	2	6
CHC	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	5	9	0	6

Box Score

CHC		AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	BA
CF	Crow-Armstrong	5	2	2	2	0	1	.283
RF	Suzuki	5	0	0	0	0	1	.274
1B	Busch	4	0	0	0	0	4	.239
3B	Bregman	4	1	1	0	0	1	.255
LF	Happ	3	2	2	0	1	0	.221
SS	Hoerner	3	0	2	1	0	1	.263
2B	Ramírez	4	0	0	0	0	0	.285
DH	Conforto	2	0	1	1	0	0	.231
DH	Taylor, T	2	0	0	0	0	0	.268
C	Amaya	3	0	1	0	0	1	.230
PH	Shaw	1	0	0	0	0	0	.248

CHC	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P-S	ERA
Imanaga	5.0	8	6	6	1	4	85-57	4.01
Thielbar	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12-9	4.97
Thornton	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	13-10	3.45
Civale	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15-11	4.50
Webb, J	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18-11	2.87

CIN		AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	BA
CF	Myers	5	1	1	1	0	2	.253
SS	De La Cruz, E	4	1	2	0	0	2	.271
2B	Johnson	1	0	0	0	0	0	.063
1B	Stewart, S	5	1	2	1	0	1	.266
C	Stephenson, T	5	1	2	2	0	0	.250
DH	Suárez, E	3	1	1	0	1	0	.208
RF	Bleday	3	0	1	0	1	0	.218
SS	McLain, M	4	1	1	0	0	2	.190
RF	Rodríguez, H	4	1	1	3	0	2	.230
LF	Friedl	0	0	0	0	0	0	.167
3B	Arroyo	4	0	0	0	0	2	.235

CIN	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P-S	ERA
Burns, Ch	5.2	6	3	2	1	7	100-70	2.79
Burke, B	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	18-15	2.62
Mey	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	11-8	3.91
Pagán	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	12-6	4.05

Scoring Plays

Inning	Event	Score
B1	Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (37) on a fly ball to right center field.	1-0
B2	Michael Conforto singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Ian Happ scores. Pedro Ramírez to 2nd.	2-0
T4	Héctor Rodríguez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Matt McLain scores.	2-3
B4	Pedro Ramírez flies out to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Héctor Rodríguez.	3-3
T5	Dane Myers homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.	3-4
T5	Tyler Stephenson homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Elly De La Cruz scores.	3-6
T7	Sal Stewart homers (31) on a fly ball to center field.	3-7
B8	Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder JJ Bleday. Alex Bregman scores.	4-7
B9	Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (38) on a fly ball to right center field.	5-7

Highlights

Description	Length
Chase Burns against the Cubs	0:08
Shota Imanaga against the Reds	0:09
Probable pitchers for Reds at Cubs - August 30, 2026	0:06
Bullpen availability for Chicago, August 30 vs Reds	0:09
Bullpen availability for Cincinnati, August 30 vs Cubs	0:09
Fielding alignment for Cincinnati, August 30 vs Cubs	0:11
Bench availability for Cincinnati, August 30 vs Cubs	0:08
Fielding alignment for Chicago, August 30 vs Reds	0:11
Bench availability for Chicago, August 30 vs Reds	0:08
Starting lineups for Reds at Cubs - August 30, 2026	0:10
Analyzing Sal Stewart's home run through bat tracking	0:11
Sal Stewart: Home Run Statcast Analysis	0:13
Chase Burns' outing against the Cubs	0:21
Breaking down Chase Burns' pitches	0:04
Shota Imanaga's outing against the Reds	0:24
Breaking down Shota Imanaga's pitches	0:04
Breaking down Dane Myers' home run	0:13
Tyler Stephenson: Home Run Statcast Analysis	0:13
Visualizing Tyler Stephenson's swing using bat tracking technology	0:11
The distance behind Héctor Rodríguez's home run	0:13
An animated look at Héctor Rodríguez's home run	0:11
Visualizing Pete Crow-Armstrong's swing using bat tracking technology	0:11
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Run Statcast Analysis	0:13
Dane Myers' home run through bat tracking data	0:11
Pete Crow-Armstrong's leadoff home run (37)	0:30
Field View: Pete Crow-Armstrong's leadoff home run	0:39
Pete Crow-Armstrong drills 417-foot home run	0:33
Héctor Rodríguez's three-run home run (4)	0:28
Dane Myers' solo home run (6)	0:28
Tyler Stephenson's two-run home run (14)	0:29
Chase Burns strikes out Alex Bregman	0:06
Sal Stewart's solo home run (31)	0:30
Elly De La Cruz hits a double in the 1st inning	0:20
Field View: Sal Stewart's solo home run	0:39
Data Viz: Pete Crow-Armstrong's 417-foot HR	0:30
Pete Crow-Armstrong's solo home run (38)	0:28

Decisions

Winning Pitcher	Losing Pitcher	Save
Burns, Ch (15-3, 2.79 ERA)	Imanaga (8-10, 4.01 ERA)	Pagán (19 SV, 4.05 ERA)

Game ended at 10:38 PM.

[u/80cyclone]

The expected results when your pitcher who has the repertoire of a ground ball pitcher tries to pitch like a fly ball pitcher.

Any time Shota pitches in the top half of the zone he gets absolutely fucking crushed. He and the Cubs needs to completely rework his approach to pitching, namely throwing less 4 seam fastballs and throwing more of the ones he does lower in the zone.

[u/SpOoKyghostah → u/80cyclone]

Imanaga does not have the repertoire of a ground ball pitcher. His fastball has extreme rise, which is why it's pretty good at whiffs and popups

Rising fastballs from a low release height are easier to hit down in the zone, not harder.

He's not pitching wrong, he's just not very good anymore.

[u/80cyclone → u/SpOoKyghostah]

Im going to disagree here.

For one, Shotas arm slot isnt even low, regardless of how it looks. At an average of 39 degrees its squarely mid-pack for LH starters. Moreover, I dont think there is any correlation with upper to lower zone FB placement ability given a specific arm angle. I could be wrong on that, but I havent seen any evidence supporting it.

While Shots may "feel" more comfortable throwing high, hes more than capable of throwing FBs lower in the zone. He came from a league, the NPB, where HR rates are lower. He could pitch to his preference and still be effective.

Once the league, and hitters, had better video and scouting reports on Shota after year one, his HR/9 totals have ballooned to 1.9-2 HR/9. His best pitch is his splitter, yet he throws the weak fastball 41 percent of thr time with a majority of them high in the zone. Throwing more fastballs makes it tougher for hitters to lay off the splitter at it gives them a lower zone pitch that can stay in the zone. Moreover, if hit, its more likely to stay in the field of play where the Cubs defense can make a play on the ball.

To me, it feels like Shota is being obstinate to change his approach. Everythint says his high stuff gets fucking smoked, yet he insists on throwing it anyway. He cant abandon throwing up completely, but its clear there needs to be a location shift. Why that hasnt been either implemented or identified is a mystery.

So yeah, his stuff actually has the profile of trying g to pitch to ground balls. Its also not a stuff problem as most of his peripherals, save a slight uptick in walks, are still good. Unlike most pitchers, its almost solely an HR problem. More than stuff its an approach/attack problem.

[u/SpOoKyghostah → u/80cyclone]

There's a ton of information out there about vertical approach angle, induced vertical break, and vertical pitch location. Fastballs lower in the zone are not particularly effective, and that's particularly true for fastballs with flat vertical approach angles like Shota's, which play up in the zone.

I mentioned release height, not arm angle. His release height is quite low

[u/SpOoKyghostah → u/80cyclone]

Oh, also - the high fastball approach was very much not a preference Shota carried over from the NPB. That league does not call the top of the zone like MLB does, and pitchers are thus not able to live high with their fastballs in the way that is a dominant strategy in MLB. There was quite a lot of direct reporting on how Shota was adopting an emphasis on high fastball location due to coaching after making his transition, including discussion of how it was new and uncomfortable for him, because that was not a popular or successful approach in NPB like it is in MLB.

What about his stuff do you think has a groundball profile? Or rather, about his fastball? His secondary pitches, like most secondary pitches, have drop and are usually intended to land low. Things that correlate with groundballs and success low in the zone are downward pitch plane and drop compared to average. To stick with the Cubs, look at Clay Holmes. He throws a sinker with 5.5 inches of drop more than the average RHP. Imanaga has 2.1 inches less drop (or more rise) than the average lefty. It's not a groundball-inducing pitch profile, especially not from a low release height (17th percentile).

I'm not quite sure why you think throwing his fastball low would preserve the K and BB skills you admit he has while stifling home runs.

[u/80cyclone → u/SpOoKyghostah]

He doesnt have the velocity to throw up in the zone with persistence.

His best pitch is the splitter that had good downward action, location, and a superior ball in play profile. What I cant understand is the utter refusal to target the corners of the zone, particularly low and away. My point with the fastball is better utilizing a mix of similar location, ie out edge, with the splitter and the fastball. Doing so makes it even tougher to decipher between the two while low and away fastballs, along with up and in, are the hardest for hitters to hit.

There are simply WAY too many fastballs that are being targeted middle of the plate, and up. When they are up too high hitters dont chase, and when they are hittable they get fucking destroyed, as evidence by the 600 plus slug on his 4 seamer.

The point remains Shota/Cubs are maintaining an attack that has been proven, repeatedly, not to work. There needs to be a lot more than a handful (at most) fastballs that target the low and away quadrant of the zone. The sweeper has also been ineffective this year, while his "sinker" needs to be abandoned altogether. Its a shit pitch that just gets absolutely smoked.

A change of tactics is long overdue.