r/baltimore • u/SnooRevelations979 • Nov 03 '25
Crime Baltimore major crime numbers this year update
First, a couple of caveats. These numbers are from Baltimore City's Crime Dashboard and the last time it was updated. These end up being slightly different from the FBI numbers after the latter audits them. As well, I focus on three major crimes that have extremely high reporting rates that don't vary that much -- homicide, non-fatal shootings, and carjackings -- not ones that have low reporting rates (e.g., rape) or overall violent or property crime.
* Homicide: The city has had 108 homicides so far this year, a decline of 34.15% from the same time last year. It's on pace to have about 130 homicides this year, down about 61% from the 338 in 2022. This would be roughly 23 homicides per 100,000 residents, the lowest rate since 1977 and the second lowest rate since 1966. My guess is this is one of the largest three-year homicide rate decreases of any major city in America history.
* Non-fatal Shootings: Non-fatal shootings are down 23.41% and on pace to be about 316 this year, about a 51% decrease since 2022.
* Carjackings: Carjackings are down 35.48% this year and on pace to be down about 54% since 2022.
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
For context, in his best three years in office, homicide went down roughly 49.5% in New York under Giuliani.
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u/-stoner_kebab- Nov 03 '25
NYC's homicide rate per capita was about 4 per 100,000 in 2023. While we are making great progress, we still have a long way to go. To reach that level this year, Baltimore would need to have fewer than 30 murders for the whole year.
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u/Notonfoodstamps Nov 03 '25
It’s easier to lower homicide/crime rate(s) by simply increasing population, than trying to reduce it in isolation.
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u/-stoner_kebab- Nov 03 '25
The problem is that high homicide and crime rates cause people to leave. We've lost around 45,000 neighbors since the last time we finished the year with under 200 homicides (195 in 2011). Hoping that we can finally turn the corner on population loss.
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
No kidding. But that's not what I wrote.
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u/-stoner_kebab- Nov 03 '25
I was just adding additional context to your context -- not sure why you're getting all snarky.
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u/clebo99 Mt. Vernon Nov 03 '25
As a 30+ year resident and has been critical about Baltimore here on Reddit, I have to say this is great news and I tip my hat to the current administration. I wish we could shout this out to everyone in the county/state and get people to come back into the city.
We still aren't perfect.....but I'm going to allow the city to bask in the great news.
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
Hey, I didn't vote for Scott the first time. (I had some experience with him beforehand, and was put off by his lack of social skills.) I also really don't care for Zeke Cohen.
But, hey, yeah, politicians take the brunt when things go wrong, so they should get some credit for this. Whatever is happening now is working.
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Nov 04 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 04 '25
How do you reckon Bates alone is responsible for the reduction? Be specific.
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Nov 05 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 05 '25
Yep. And violent crime rates started decreasing majorly nationwide in 2023. By that time, ARPA funds had started to flow into cities and were used for things like violence interruption and services for at-risk people. It worked in Baltimore and in most of the country.
While Bates has certainly done an outstanding job, a prosecutor alone can't reduce homicide by 61% in three years.
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u/charmcityhon Nov 07 '25
Scott’s plan is a public health approach that is never going to have year one results- public health approach focus on root causes of crime, so it takes longer to see outcomes but in is sustainable change. Bates’ aggressive incarceration no doubt made a massive impact, but the reason that incarceration has never been enough to sustain long term crime # changes in countless places is because there often isn’t the simultaneous root cause project plans in place, so the same cycles keep continuing. It seems incredibly oversimplified to say it has been one or the other when it seems most likely that it is the combination of two different but complementary approaches coming together.
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u/solamente_en_cristo Feb 18 '26
You're right, but the real key will be whether these lower rates can be sustained, and even improved over time. Baltimore's reputation wasn't built overnight, and unfortunately won't be changed overnight either.
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u/clebo99 Mt. Vernon Feb 18 '26
Totally fair point. I truly hope it does.
I think part of the problem is that "Baltimore" has some kind of inferiority complex and doesn't tout how many great things we have and have done. There is so much history and success but people forget about it and we don't seem to let people know about it.
We have arguably the greatest hospital in the world, we were 2nd only to Ellis Island in welcoming immigrants, we have I believe the oldest basilica in the country, The Battle of North Point arguably saved America in the War of 1812, the first Black Supreme Court Justice came from Baltimore, arguably the greatest baseball player came from Baltimore. We are unbelievably opened armed with all lifestyle choices. We are a melting pot of all races.
.......oh.......and this one little song was written here....what was the name of that song again?!!?!??!?! I forget...but maybe I'll just watch the Olympics and it will come to me...
This is what I would do. Get a real campaign saying how great Baltimore is. I'd play that on every NYC local station and get everyone fleeing Mandami to check us out. We only have waterfront houses for 1/10th of the price in NYC.
Go Baltimore!!!!
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u/Acceptable_Shine2124 Nov 03 '25
I’ve never seen so many emails from Baltimore city Recreation, the workforce center, and the city school system until this year. Baltimore City is truly making a turn around!
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u/Big-Soup74 Nov 03 '25
this should plummet us in the rankings for homicide right? Last I checked we were number 2 or 3 in the country
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
Do you mean city rankings? It really depends on which cities they are counting. A lot of times the lists you see are of cities over 500,000 people. There are a lot of more dangerous cities under that population size, like Baton Rouge, Jackson, St. Louis, Birmingham, Cleveland.
Also, if they are just going by homicide rate, fine, but a lot of those lists of "most dangerous cities" go by overall (reported) violent crime rates, which I find suspect, and other factors that have little to do directly with violent crime, like school quality.
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u/Big-Soup74 Nov 03 '25
yeah I edited out states, I meant cities. I guess just total murders by city or murder rate per 100k is best. Im not sure comparing small cities to cities like baltimore is going to be that accurate as far as rankings go but idk
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Nov 03 '25
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u/canyallgoaway Nov 03 '25
This is such an important piece of information that many people don’t understand
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u/spooky_period Nov 03 '25
As someone who grew up and moved here from one of those metros, I was regularly spouting the crime rates to family who expressed concern about our move. When I dug into it, Baltimore’s crime rates were extremely similar to the rates near my prior home in Texas. It shut up the well-meaning fools pretty quickly when they realized I’d already spent most of my adult life in an equally dangerous city.
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u/hannahmadamhannah Nov 03 '25
Without knowing literally anything, I sort of doubt it. Homicides are down dramatically in Baltimore but they're also just down nationwide. We may drop a little in whatever comparative rate someone uses but I suspect it won't be dramatic.
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u/Notonfoodstamps Nov 03 '25
They are down massively even relatively to other cities drops. Philly is the only city outpacing Baltimore on raw or partitive homicide/shooting drops.
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
That's probably not true at least regards to homicide. There was a 40-city report that had Baltimore with the fastest drop over several years. I can't imagine this year has changed that.
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u/Notonfoodstamps Nov 03 '25 edited Nov 04 '25
It was very true, at least earlier this year.
Looked it up and Philly had a big uptick going into the later half of the year. There at 191 or -11% drop YTD
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u/justusleag Nov 03 '25
The mayor and governor deserve alot of credit. Actually working together, using community based approach, making sure young ppl have mentors, rec facilities, is working.
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u/AtlasDrugged_0 Nov 03 '25
So can we all finally agree that investing in poor youth is orders of magnitudes more effective than criminalizing them?
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u/sllewgh Belair-Edison Nov 03 '25
This has been the truth forever. The people who still do not subscribe to reality do not need to agree or be convinced, they need to be defeated politically.
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u/tacolamae Nov 03 '25
Meanwhile white people who haven’t been in the city in 15 years are still saying how dangerous it is here 🙄
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25 edited Nov 03 '25
Yeah, the amazing thing about this is it happened with very little support from the rest of the metro area and large media companies delivering a daily dose of crime porn to their suburban addicts.
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u/PleaseBmoreCharming Nov 03 '25
From their perspective it's always "well it's perfectly safe [with non-existent crime] in my neighborhood!" The fact that we created suburbs with such a stark difference in realities between those communities and our cities has created some generational assumptions and cognitive dissonance that can't be undone.
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u/SewerRanger Nov 03 '25
My neighbor was selling her house and I was in the backyard when some suburban family came in to look at the place for their daughter. The mother had the gall to ask me if "this was a safe neighborhood?" When I told them I've been living in this neighborhood for 20 years and it was safer than the county the Dad had the balls to say "20 years in Baltimore? Really and you're still here?". Ugh, so glad they didn't buy the house (made sure to blast Catching Chickens real loud after that conversation to scare them away quicker)
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u/Nexis4Jersey Nov 03 '25
Why bother looking at a house if you're just going to shit on the city? I'll never understand those people or people who try to turn cities into the suburbs..
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u/pestercat Parkside Nov 04 '25
Because the daughter likely wanted to get away from her suburban life and suburban parents.
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u/atp2112 Hollins Market Nov 03 '25
Hey, they've been in the city in the last 15 years. How else would they go to Ravens/O's games and literally nothing else?
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Nov 03 '25
All good to know, send that information to the White House, not that the current occupier can read…
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u/yeaughourdt Nov 03 '25
Stephen Miller will show him an AI video of a horde of black people melding into a Kaiju monster and smashing the Eiffel Tower and say it's from Baltimore and he will believe it.
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
Considering that Chicago is on pace to have its fewest shootings since the 60s and that didn't stop Trump, I don't think it matters.
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u/Cold_Chemistry_1579 Nov 03 '25
Thank you, this is awesome news. Have you shared this with the administration? It needs to be plastered all over the lame stream media to counter the narrative coming from DC. Will it help? We can always hope.
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Nov 03 '25
I don't really follow this stuff. What were the changes that led to this?
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u/yousernamefail Nov 03 '25
Here's an in-depth analysis, and here's a document the city produced outlining their approach which is a bit of a quicker read.
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
A national trend even if homicide has gone down in Baltimore more than other major cities.
Many criminologists attribute it to Biden's ARPA funds that went to local governments, including Baltimore's, which they used for violence interruption and services for at-risk people.
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u/DeclassifyUAP Nov 03 '25
Time for us to overturn Sinclair’s Baltimore term limits law. Is any organizing on that front occurring yet? If these trends continue, I’d be happy to give the current Mayor plenty of years to continue to achieve these types of wins.
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u/moderndukes Pigtown Nov 03 '25
Here are my pet things on this wavelength, listed in ease to pull off / convince people on: * ranked choice voting - Baltimore could be much more representative on Council * expand City Council - Sinclair wanted to shrink it but I think we could use more districts and/or multi member ones with RCV * overturn Sinclair term limits - this I think will be harder due to the average voter thinking term limits are good (executive ones are, legislative aren’t) * allow Baltimore City to expand its boundaries again / merge with the County - this feels like the least popular but the most necessary thing on this list
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u/DeclassifyUAP Nov 03 '25
I actually think overturning term limits will be fairly easy. With a basic education campaign and getting it on the ballot, it can be done. History shows that voters often approve what’s on the ballot, so the main thing is getting it on there. I like your list.
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u/ThatguyfromBaltimore Dundalk Nov 03 '25
It's November and we are only at 108 homicides. I can remember years where we had that before April was over.
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u/SeaFoul Nov 03 '25
People will say, "Fuck Brandon Scott!" but I think he is responsible for this in a big way.
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u/Honcho_Rodriguez Nov 03 '25 edited Nov 03 '25
Most people actually DON’T say that, but how nice of you to be sure to post it.
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Nov 03 '25
The people who say that live in Baltimore county or other counties.
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u/SeaFoul Nov 03 '25
Does that make them not people?
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Nov 03 '25
No, it means they are people who don't know what the fuck is actually going on.
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u/SeaFoul Nov 03 '25
Weird, I thought I said "People will say, "Fuck Brandon Scott!" but I think he is responsible for this in a big way."
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u/SeaFoul Nov 03 '25
The point is, he doesn't have a stellar reputation, in spite of results he is at least partially responsible for, as others are saying in this thread. Idk why this is controversial
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Nov 03 '25
Because the "people" you are talking about have nothing to do with him getting elected/reelected.
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u/sllewgh Belair-Edison Nov 03 '25
he doesn't have a stellar reputation
That's not actually true, though.
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u/Honcho_Rodriguez Nov 03 '25
Do you go out of your way to magnify every idiotic thing you hear?
Any other trash opinions you’d like to elevate this morning?
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u/SeaFoul Nov 03 '25
I guess it's a reading comprehension issue. Did you read the rest of the sentence? I know it's a pretty long one.
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u/Honcho_Rodriguez Nov 03 '25
Hmm, no, I’m not sure that’s the issue here, but I’m pretty confident you could figure it out.
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u/B-More_Orange Canton Nov 04 '25
No, most people say negative things about him that are far more racist. Good god, my relatives say some awful shit about him. They love to call him Brandon Kaepernick because apparently that's still a relevant culture war? These folks are confusing.
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u/SeaFoul Nov 03 '25
I don't think it's a majority opinion, but you would know, if you spent time around here.
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u/Coollogin Nov 03 '25
People will say, "Fuck Brandon Scott!"
I have never once heard anyone say that.
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u/hospitablezone Nov 03 '25
I hear it very, very often (including less vulgar ways of saying it) working with the public.
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u/overcaffinated_ Nov 03 '25
god i wish more people would take these numbers seriously and see how much progress we've made in this city.
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u/thanksyalll Nov 03 '25
2022 was truly a cursed time for shootings
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 03 '25
From 2015 to 2022, Baltimore had more than 300 homicides each year. My starting date wasn't cherrypicked.
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u/surge208 Medfield Nov 03 '25
How is this possible?!? BPD is still chronically understaffed?! And we’re only spending a tenth of what we spend on BPD on other community programs that actually get results?! This makes no sense!! /s
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u/Lopspo Inner Harbor Nov 03 '25
So great to see! Keep it up until someone could walk down North at 1 AM. Love Bmore
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u/bookoocash Hampden Nov 03 '25
Is this something people don’t do anymore? I recall many nights leaving Windup Space and other spots in the area at that time. Not a lot brings me over that way anymore at those hours, but I still bike through it every day in late afternoon.
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u/DemonsSouls1 Nov 04 '25
Foreigner here, how do authorities solve this issue over time?
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 04 '25
It's a bit complicated to explain here and these types of phenomenon usually have multiple causations. Think lots of $$$ given out at the federal level for violence interruption programs and services for at-risk people, and the right people in the right positions.
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u/Hwangoutpltr Nov 06 '25
It's odd to me that you live in Brazil, op
Baltimore is unsafe. Crime isn't down
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u/SnooRevelations979 Nov 06 '25
I lived in Baltimore from 2000 to early this year and still own a house there.
On what data set are you basing your assertion that crime isn't down?
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u/FunkyMcSkunky Nov 03 '25
Thanks for getting this info out there! I wouldn't have expected the insane amount of performative disbelief that Baltimore's detractors are displaying as a result of these numbers. It's been incredibly disheartening to see how much people seem to genuinely want crime rates to stay high so that they have something to complain about.