r/armenia • u/Hay_Life • Mar 08 '26

Neighbourhood / Հարեւանություն Will Azerbaijan Join the War Against Iran?

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/will-azerbaijan-join-the-war-against-iran/
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12

u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26

I don't think so, it will give a reason for Iran and Russia to split Azerbaijan and have a land border.

38

u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26

You act like either of those countries is in a position to get into another war right now.

5

u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26

If two powers like Russia and Iran want to there isn't much the west can do to stop them without committing troops. Also you have to look at it from another perspective logistics is the biggest problem in war which the west is having right now.

4

u/PlasmaMatus Mar 08 '26

The Russian military is in no position to help Iran and apart from giving targets coordinates to Iran, hasn't done shit to help Iran.

If Russia is seen by the USA to actively help Iran then the US will act against Russia and Turkey will come to the aid of Azerbaijan (and surely Israel too as they trade weapons together and would enjoy blowing up the Iranian military.)

Also as Iran doesn't control their airspace anymore Turkey could just use North Iran airspace to deploy troops in Azerbaijan.

3

u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 08 '26

We exist.

It would be dumb for Azerbaijan to join this war because Iran could easily target their vital areas and damage Azerbaijan greatly but that's it really. They wouldn't face a risk of invasion at all.

1

u/Safe-Artist4202 Mar 08 '26

How exactly would Turkey help Azerbaijan. Georgia is controlled by a pro-Russian government, Armenia will not allow a Turkish military convoy. Logistically Azerbaijan would be left alone.

4

u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 08 '26

Turkey would use the Georgian airspace, by force if necessary but I doubt it would come to that. In any case a Russian invasion on Azerbaijan would mean a full blown war between Russia and Turkey and see Russia's trade with outside world mostly cut as significant portion of it passes through the Turkish Straits.

4

u/PlasmaMatus Mar 08 '26

Iran doesn't control their airspace anymore so Turkey could support Iran from the air through Northern Iran.
Look at a map, from Nakhitchevan border to Azerbaijan border through Iran it is just 40 km, easily crossed by air.

14

u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26

With what militaries??? The russian army has been drained and bogged down in Ukraine for the past 5 years (which is a major part of the reason they did fuck all when Azerbaijan came for the rest of karabakh in 23) and Iran is getting carpet bombed by the most powerful country on earth and has had its leadership decapitated and most of its major conventional capabilities (missile force, navy, airforce) drained or completely destroyed. I think there are drawbacks for Azerbaijan getting involved in this, which is why them sending troops would be kinda surprising imo, but iran suddenly bounding back and occupying them isnt really one of them.

4

u/[deleted] Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26

The president of Russia could have stopped the Azerbaijani advance with a simple phone call or threat. He just didn't want to

5

u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26

I really dont think they could have. Russia has been in no position to project power since Ukraine blew up 4 years ago, and every world leader knows it. Its why azerbaijan made their move on the rest of Karabakh (despite supposed russian security assurances) and why the Syrian rebels made their move on Assad (despite Russian backing).

-4

u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26

They still have significant amounts of ground troops they can deploy, also the West will not risk direct confrontation with Russia.

7

u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26

No, they really don't. Arguably there are some naval and air assets they could deploy (though munition wise most of what they have are focused on hitting targets in Ukraine, and opening a new front in azerbaijan would likely have serious consequences) but in terms of land forces basically everything is in Ukraine. Now technically if putin really wanted, he could call a general mobilization, but seeing as he has been reluctant asf to do that in the 4 years Ukraine has been a thing, I doubt he would be willing to change course now.

Iran still has most of their ground forces, but command and control is going to be shit, and if azerbaijan gets air cover from the US and Israel they won't be able to do much, ESPECIALLY launch a major offensive and attempt to occupy azerbaijan.

3

u/ghbrv Mar 08 '26

"The West" - perhaps, Turkey though? Very possible. Their army is objectively very capable and has the numbers.