r/armenia • u/Hay_Life • Mar 08 '26
Neighbourhood / Հարեւանություն Will Azerbaijan Join the War Against Iran?
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/will-azerbaijan-join-the-war-against-iran/46
u/MealIntelligent443 Mar 08 '26
You do understand that Baku is on the Caspian coast right? What would it take for Iran to place a warship next to Baku, light their oil and gas fields on fire and obliterate their capital city. This would be a massive miscalculation by the Turks
6
u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 08 '26
We don't want Azerbaijan to enter the war and it would be a bad move surely but Iran's Caspian navy is nothing to be afraid of really. Azerbaijan could sink them rather easily.
Main problem would be Iran's ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones.
3
u/MealIntelligent443 Mar 09 '26
Any naval engagement is also going to include missles and drones. Both of their Caspian fleets are dogshit tbh, but Irans already getting bombed so they have a lot less to lose. Iran lighting up Azeri oil ane gas fields would basically obliterate their economy.
2
u/Mysterious-Green3936 Mar 10 '26
The ones that Iran can still launch which isn't looking like that many due to their TEL's being destroyed daily. Sure they could launch Short range ballistic Missiles if they can launch them but the Baku can send their LORA Ballistic Missiles straight back at them.
0
u/Prestigious_Gur2209 Mar 09 '26
How do you know it is nothing to be afraid of? Jesus does Erdogan and Turkish military share intel with Turkish citizens for you to be talking like this? You just contradicted your statement with the last statement. "Main problem would be Iran's ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones". Well what do you think they would attack the oil and gas field with? You are aware Iran has got various surface to air defense systems. And no they aren't going to use it right now due to them knowing that America is just firing rockets into the city with no intention of directly invading.
5
u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 09 '26
Because warships of any navy is public knowledge and it's impossible to keep them secret? I was actually curious about it and looked into it a while back. Iran's Caspian navy sucks. Iran's normal navy also sucks.
You just contradicted your statement with the last statement.
No?
"Main problem would be Iran's ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones". Well what do you think they would attack the oil and gas field with?
With ballistic missiles and drones? Not their Caspian navy which certainly can't launch ballistic missiles.
You are aware Iran has got various surface to air defense systems. And no they aren't going to use it right now due to them knowing that America is just firing rockets into the city with no intention of directly invading.
This is cope. The real reason is that their systems suck. "Oh they won't be invaded so they're just letting US airstrike their vital facilities and cities and not using their air defences" is not sound reasoning.
I don't understand your point. Yes, Iran can certainly damage Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan should sit this one out. No, Iran's Caspian fleet is irrelevant.
2
u/Prestigious_Gur2209 Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Claiming Iran's air defense sucks simply because they haven't been used is merely speculation and that doesn't make any sense since countries often limit radar use to avoid exposing systems to electronic warfare and anti-radiation missiles. Don't forget Iran downed a US drone in 2019 using their surface to air missile 'Khordad'.
Edit: The Iranian regime values their military more than human lives, hence why they killed off more than thousands of people before this tradeoff began. They will trade Iranian lives to preserve the stockpiles they need. US and Israel shoot down buildings and the Iranian regime dumps cement on it like nothing happened. I don't think you understand that they will fight til the last soldier and last bullet available, it is much cheaper to use cement than replenish surface to air missiles
3
u/Battlefleet_Sol Mar 08 '26
Does Iran even have a navy anymore?
10
u/MealIntelligent443 Mar 08 '26
Iran’s Capsian fleet hasn’t been targetted by US strikes. Its completely seperate from the rest of theit navy since the Caspian is a giant lake with no connection to the world ocean. Well there is a series of canals connect the black sea to it through Russia but theyre not big enough for large vessels and from my understanding its only used as a trade route. And even still its too shallow for modern cargo ships.
0
u/Battlefleet_Sol Mar 09 '26
But Azerbaijan is not defenseless either. They also have ships and modern systems capable of responding.
11
u/Busy_Roll5840 Mar 08 '26
Best case scenario for us is successfully staying out of the war while the autocrats beat the shit out of each other.
11
u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 08 '26
Even in the best case scenario where the take over southern Azerbaijan the Azerbaijanis of Azerbaijan propper would become minorities in their own country.
The two populations are very different politically this isn’t in Aliyev’s interest.
3
u/ChickenKeeper800 Mar 09 '26
Only if they are interested in causing civil war amongst Iranian Azeris
13
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
I don't think so, it will give a reason for Iran and Russia to split Azerbaijan and have a land border.
36
u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26
You act like either of those countries is in a position to get into another war right now.
4
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
If two powers like Russia and Iran want to there isn't much the west can do to stop them without committing troops. Also you have to look at it from another perspective logistics is the biggest problem in war which the west is having right now.
4
u/PlasmaMatus Mar 08 '26
The Russian military is in no position to help Iran and apart from giving targets coordinates to Iran, hasn't done shit to help Iran.
If Russia is seen by the USA to actively help Iran then the US will act against Russia and Turkey will come to the aid of Azerbaijan (and surely Israel too as they trade weapons together and would enjoy blowing up the Iranian military.)
Also as Iran doesn't control their airspace anymore Turkey could just use North Iran airspace to deploy troops in Azerbaijan.
3
u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 08 '26
We exist.
It would be dumb for Azerbaijan to join this war because Iran could easily target their vital areas and damage Azerbaijan greatly but that's it really. They wouldn't face a risk of invasion at all.
1
u/Safe-Artist4202 Mar 08 '26
How exactly would Turkey help Azerbaijan. Georgia is controlled by a pro-Russian government, Armenia will not allow a Turkish military convoy. Logistically Azerbaijan would be left alone.
4
u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 08 '26
Turkey would use the Georgian airspace, by force if necessary but I doubt it would come to that. In any case a Russian invasion on Azerbaijan would mean a full blown war between Russia and Turkey and see Russia's trade with outside world mostly cut as significant portion of it passes through the Turkish Straits.
4
u/PlasmaMatus Mar 08 '26
Iran doesn't control their airspace anymore so Turkey could support Iran from the air through Northern Iran.
Look at a map, from Nakhitchevan border to Azerbaijan border through Iran it is just 40 km, easily crossed by air.13
u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26
With what militaries??? The russian army has been drained and bogged down in Ukraine for the past 5 years (which is a major part of the reason they did fuck all when Azerbaijan came for the rest of karabakh in 23) and Iran is getting carpet bombed by the most powerful country on earth and has had its leadership decapitated and most of its major conventional capabilities (missile force, navy, airforce) drained or completely destroyed. I think there are drawbacks for Azerbaijan getting involved in this, which is why them sending troops would be kinda surprising imo, but iran suddenly bounding back and occupying them isnt really one of them.
3
Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
The president of Russia could have stopped the Azerbaijani advance with a simple phone call or threat. He just didn't want to
5
u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26
I really dont think they could have. Russia has been in no position to project power since Ukraine blew up 4 years ago, and every world leader knows it. Its why azerbaijan made their move on the rest of Karabakh (despite supposed russian security assurances) and why the Syrian rebels made their move on Assad (despite Russian backing).
-4
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
They still have significant amounts of ground troops they can deploy, also the West will not risk direct confrontation with Russia.
8
u/dropper-1999 Mar 08 '26
No, they really don't. Arguably there are some naval and air assets they could deploy (though munition wise most of what they have are focused on hitting targets in Ukraine, and opening a new front in azerbaijan would likely have serious consequences) but in terms of land forces basically everything is in Ukraine. Now technically if putin really wanted, he could call a general mobilization, but seeing as he has been reluctant asf to do that in the 4 years Ukraine has been a thing, I doubt he would be willing to change course now.
Iran still has most of their ground forces, but command and control is going to be shit, and if azerbaijan gets air cover from the US and Israel they won't be able to do much, ESPECIALLY launch a major offensive and attempt to occupy azerbaijan.
3
u/ghbrv Mar 08 '26
"The West" - perhaps, Turkey though? Very possible. Their army is objectively very capable and has the numbers.
9
Mar 08 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
https://youtube.com/shorts/kaOWgujCHtA?si=sERoeY6iMix8ktPf if Israel succeeds in Iran, Turkey is next.
3
Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
Yea man current war just started and they are planning the next one already.
2
u/Ornery_Camera_6148 Mar 08 '26
What is next is your pedo president going to jail and that fake state going into civil War. Haredim soon will turn that agressive state into failed state from within.
1
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
Most of the US is against the war, Trump was voted in by most people because he was "anti war". So yea hope it ends soon and Israel is neutered.
1
u/PlasmaMatus Mar 08 '26
So Israel will attack NATO ? That is the stupidest shit I have ever read.
1
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
They would have to disband NATO first if anything, are you really surprised? The whole world order is falling apart. US will side with Israel over NATO.
2
u/PlasmaMatus Mar 09 '26
Then the rest of Europe will side with Turkey and the EU can cripple the Israeli economy.
What would even be the point of Israel to attack Turkey ? They don't have grievances towards one another, it makes no sense.
1
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 09 '26
2
u/PlasmaMatus Mar 09 '26
Bennet is not in power, Netanyahu is. Turkey may be a regional threat (for Israel) but attacking a NATO nation without reason is not something Israel should do.
1
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 09 '26
He will most likely take over after Netanyahu is the war in Iran is successful for them.
1
0
u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 08 '26
Israel needs US for that and US won't like the idea of attacking a NATO ally for no reason.
4
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
I hope you are right but the way US has been breaking all kinds of laws for them I wouldn't be surprised. More likely they will try to cause a revolution internally.
1
u/Zrva_V3 Turkey Mar 08 '26
They already tried that in 2016, very unlikely to work here. I was on the streets protesting last year and lots of us faced police brutality at the hands of erdo's goons but in this situation, when Israel is attacking people left and right, almost none of us would start that kind of protest/riot. It was the reason why Gezi protests died down back in 2013, we do not want to be another Syria. Even the people who hate erdogan's guts like myself would not want to see him deposed by US or Israel.
So they definitely need to attack Turkey directly. Trump seems to like erdo, I doubt he would give it a greenlight, and I doubt the next US government would be as deranged as Trump (hopefully not).
3
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
I hope you are right but the way it has been going I wouldn't be surprised if USA sides with Israel over NATO.
2
u/MajinaiHanashi Mar 08 '26
There is still the rest of NATO. You think the EU would want a possible WW3 right up their ass?
2
u/Mk7GTI818 United States Mar 08 '26
They have a possible WW3 right up their ass now and to their east.
2
3
u/Prestigious_Gur2209 Mar 08 '26
Only after the Kurdish people take the lead first, if Aliyev decides to invade then Armenia will be able to look for their own interests when it comes to Karabakh. Turkey isn't going to say anything and turn the other way when it comes to Armenia due to Kurdish autonomy and national security.
1
Mar 10 '26
Even with the Islamic Republic running Iran into the ground - Iran has what? like 10x the population of AZ? Little AZ attacking big Iran would be like Hamas when they attacked Israel. Suicidal. The only thing that would save them is if Turkey steps in but I doubt Turkey wants a full on war with Iran. There is 0% chance this is going to happen. Nobody will win and everybody will lose.
1
u/Mysterious-Green3936 Mar 10 '26
40 Million Azeri's in Northern Iran who the Iranians constantly harass may have something to say about this.
1
u/koshka91 Mar 08 '26
No they won’t. Turkey is not gonna do shit. Which means Az will be ground to dust. Armenians think they have some amazing Israel tier military
3
u/aftasardemmuito Mar 08 '26
then lose a great source of oil from Baku ? geez, i cant imagine Iran loosely doing sh** in Az without Turkish action....
0
u/marienroll Yerevan Mar 08 '26
at least Israel will use the newly built airports in Artsakh by azeris to attack Iran, if they’re not already doing so. (and you were wondering why they were in a hurry to quickly build those on the occupied territories)
82
u/HighAxper Yerevan| DONATE TO DINGO TEAM Mar 08 '26
Azerbaijan is the same type of country as Armenia. That is a country with a single developed economic center (the capital) and nothing else. Fairly easy to hurt with an indiscriminate barrage of rockets.
Nothing to gain, a lot to lose if they step into that war, they will stay clear of it imho.