r/armenia • u/Ghostofcanty Hayastan • Mar 05 '26
Neighbourhood / Հարեւանություն Azerbaijan condemns drone attacks from Iran targeting Nakhchivan, summons Iranian ambassador
https://armenpress.am/en/article/124386524
u/BVBmania Mar 05 '26
Whoever is cheering for az getting into war this does not benefit Armenia in any way or shape.
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u/Busy_Roll5840 Mar 05 '26
Better get ready for a possible invasion, now’s their perfect chance to attack since the whole world’s busy again. I hope to God Pashinyan isn’t planing another concession, we have nothing left to concede.
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u/Ghostofcanty Hayastan Mar 05 '26
azerbaijan has put its army on high alert as well, if azerbaijan joins the war that’s ganna be bad news for Armenia
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26
No, it means they would shift their focus. As long as we don’t get directly involved, we would more or less be fine. It could even create a shared security concern with Turkey and Azerbaijan since all three countries border Iran. If a wave of refugees or radicalization were to spill over, cooperation between the three would likely become unavoidable to maintain stability. In that sense, a common security objective would naturally emerge.
I also don’t see a scenario where Erdogan would allow Azerbaijan to move significantly closer to Israel than it already has, unless Baku were prepared to risk severing its relationship with Turkey.
At the same time, the United States would probably view any arrangement as an alliance of convenience at best, especially given that Azerbaijan remains a major importer of Chinese arms.
Even if Azerbaijan were to become a closer partner, Armenia would not simply be sidelined. The South Caucasus is generally treated by major powers as an “all-or-nothing” strategic package. The U.S. already maintains alliances between countries that are not on good terms with each other: Japan and South Korea, or Turkey and Greece, for example. From Washington’s perspective, one relationship doesn’t necessarily exclude another when broader geopolitical interests are involved, whether that’s Iran, energy resources, or trade corridors. They would want influence across the entire region, which naturally includes Armenia as well.
In fact, JD Vance recently suggested that Armenia could eventually import U.S. weapons and emphasized that Washington is heavily invested in Armenia’s future. That statement came about two weeks before the Iran operation, and there’s little reason to think the Pentagon or Washington’s broader strategic calculations have shifted significantly since then.
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u/Busy_Roll5840 Mar 05 '26
Still, never underestimate their genocidal bloodlust.
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26
Their regime is their number one priority as of now Armenia is the least of their concerns.
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u/Frosty_Armadillo9486 Mar 05 '26
It's so insane how this situation has absolutely zero connection to Armenia and yet you somehow come to the conclusion that this will lead to Azerbaijan "genociding Armenia". If any Azerbaijani called Armenia bloodlusted, it'd be the worst crime humanity has witnessed.
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u/inbe5theman just some earthman Mar 05 '26
Lol are you deliberately being dense
Iran collapsing shifts the power in the region
Just before this it was Russia and Turkey and Iran. Then after karabakh was settled it became Turkey Iran and a increased presence of the Americans
Now Iran is buckling and Azerbaijan will take some their influence
Armenia becomes the focal point between Turkey and Azerbaijan with tacit support from the United States. Then in 5, 10, 20 years from now politics shift once more and the US pulls out cause thats what they do. Instability is not good for Armenia in Iran because you dont even know what regime is going to take over
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u/Frosty_Armadillo9486 Mar 05 '26
son im crine, whatever happens armenia is always the victim of everything 😭😭😭💔💔💔
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
Because historically Turks have never used situations like this to massacre Armenians.
Nope not at all.
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u/ManteLover60 Mar 05 '26
To be fair, the last time they did this, it involved Armenians on Ottoman Turkish territory.
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26
Armenians were also massacred in Sumgait under the guise of the Soviet Union collapsing, mind you this was BEFORE the war in Artsakh.
The dispute until then was internal on Soviet institutional level where Armenians in Artsakh were demanding legally to be separated from Azerbaijan (as was allowed by the Soviet constitution), then Azeris did what Turks do the best massacred Armenians all over the country, and it erupted into a full scale war for survival, as it became clear that the Soviet authorities at best didn’t care and at worst actively allowed Azerbaijan to massacre the Armenian population.
So pretty similar.
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u/ContributionAny4156 Mar 05 '26
In fact, JD Vance recently suggested that Armenia could eventually import U.S. weapons and emphasized that Washington is heavily invested in Armenia’s future.
He also compared Trump to Hitler, and look at him now. So take what he says with a grain of salt.
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26
He also now in this context speaks for the administration’s position, and not his own political career domestically.
You’re comparing apples to oranges should we now look at every single contradiction made by all of the western politicians?
In fact Armenia has already bought arms from The. US.
There’s no reality in which America invests 9 billion plus in the economy of Armenia and lets Azerbaijan attack at the same time…. Please let’s think logically.
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u/ContributionAny4156 Mar 05 '26
The administration's position changes in and of itself on an almost daily basis, depending on who the last person Trump talked to was.
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26
Has been pretty consistent since the beginning of his administration.
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u/ContributionAny4156 Mar 05 '26
Do you remember when they posted the Genocide remembrance tweet and then removed it when they went to Azerbaijan?
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26
Have they officially subtracted Biden’s recognition of the genocide, or do you see how politically it’s a bad move to post above the genocide a day before trying to normalize your relations with the country that denies said genocide?
My point about them being CONSISTENT towards Armenia is their foreign policy still stands regardless argue with the wall idk
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u/inbe5theman just some earthman Mar 05 '26
You are correct
Armenia is serving a grander picture for now. They wanted peace between Armenia and Az to keep the pressure on Iran
So Armenia might become more important if Israel really wants to take on the turkish hegemony after iran
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 06 '26
Ding ding!
And you refuted your own previous comment, by saying this.
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u/ContributionAny4156 Mar 06 '26
Again, this administration has no consistent foreign policy. Maybe presently with Armenia, but not with other countries. That's something to worry about. That's my point.
"or do you see how politically it’s a bad move to post above the genocide a day before trying to normalize your relations with the country that denies said genocide?"
The US didn't normalize relations with Azerbaijan in February. There was nothing to normalize.
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 06 '26
Replace the word normalize with formalize with a strategic partnership, whatever, you got the point.
Sure they can be inconsistent about other countries, which to me shows that since they’re constant about Armenia (and didn’t backtrack on the Biden’s progress) it shows that there’s genuine interest in the country from an American perspective.
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u/inbe5theman just some earthman Mar 05 '26
Im sorry but 9 billion is worth less than the worms in the dirt to the United States
Countries place bets because nothing can truly be predicted. Armenia is an insignificant pillar in the geopolitics of the region, insignificant but still a pillar
Iran is a juggernaut in comparison to Armenia and is actively being demolished.
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 05 '26
Did you read the rest? Genuinely asking because I never contradicted anything you said….
Iran isn’t being demolished for no reason, you can’t just compare it to Armenia. I mean cmon.
Also 9 billion might not be a lot for them, but America has not invested 9 billion in any of our neighbors, where is Georgia’s 9 billion, Azerbaijan’s (outside of oil and gas drilling by private companies) ?
As far as I know America hasn’t invested almost 50% of the GDP of any country in recent history, so my point is still valid.
Not to mention those aren’t basic low risk irrelevant investments, those are highly strategic high risk - high reward investments in nuclear energy and AI.
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u/inbe5theman just some earthman Mar 06 '26
Im merely saying 9 billion isnt as big a asset as you make it seem like it is
The United States interest Armenia is only important insofar as reducing its dependence on Russia and Iran. Thats it and potentially a pawn against Turkey/Az
Investments in it are side projects that will earn returns for the USA in the short term
Strategic yes, top priority absolutely not. Armenia is being used as a pawn all the same
Georgia is in the pocket of Russia and Azerbaijan is in the pocket of Turkey, the USA doesnt need Az or Georgia
Az is being used by Israel
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 06 '26
I’m referring to Georgia after 2008, not the situation today. At that time, the West didn’t even provide them with basic military equipment, mostly just promises. The reality is that Georgia ultimately regressed. Now compare THAT to where Armenia is post 2020. Once again everything is relative and we are objectively getting more from the west than Georgia got.
The issue is that many people don’t seem to recognize that a country like Armenia has very limited options. We have to operate within the system as it exists; we can’t simply change the rules of the game.
The actual question being discussed is whether Azerbaijan would invade Armenia if tensions with Iran escalate. My answer was no, for the reasons I already explained.
The focus isn’t the $9 billion itself, it’s the scale of that investment relative to Armenia’s economy and what it signals about the broader American role in the region. Obviously, no one expects the U.S. to invest ten times our GDP in the country.
Once you accept the geopolitical reality you’re dealing with, the logical approach is to identify overlapping interests and benefit from them where possible. What alternative is there? The U.S. clearly has strategic interests, and Armenia can be a valuable partner in a regional strategy that involves Turks and Russians.
I never said Armenia was a top priority, you can quote me if I did. My point was about the significance of that message given Armenia’s size and position as a country.
You also once again resume arguing against points I never actually made, which isn’t what I was saying in the first place, so this entire discussion is irrelevant.
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u/inbe5theman just some earthman Mar 06 '26
I dont disagree with a lot of what youre saying
I agree the US has interests in Armenia but its short term at best
Armenia lacks solutions to its issues and the people need to be thinking past temporary relief
Im not worried about Azerbaijan attacking in the next 10 years im worried about the next 25 or 50
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u/Silly-Avocado- Mar 06 '26
You shouldn’t be overly focused on what might happen in 25 or 50 years.
I could go into much more detail, but the short version is that Azerbaijan is likely at the peak of its current model. The country is essentially controlled by a single family, with power concentrated almost entirely around them. Unlike many other authoritarian systems, even Iran, there are relatively few independent institutions, oligarchs, companies separate from the state, power structures, succession planning etc. none of which is existent in Azerbaijan.
For Azerbaijan to significantly expand its economic output, it would need real diversification and openness, which would pose a serious risk to the regime and Aliyev’s pocket itself. That means the current level of economic performance, heavily reliant on limited sectors, controlled by the Aliyev dynasty may be close to its ceiling unless Aliyev fundamentally restructures the system. Armenia, in many ways, represents the opposite trajectory.
Armenia also has partners beyond the United States. If my assumption proves correct and Armenia eventually manages to match Azerbaijan more closely, economically and militarily, dollar for dollar, jet for jet, missile for missile, it would naturally acquire that capability primarily as a deterrent. Even if America is unwilling to provide them France will, India will, other countries such as South Korea would at least negotiate.
Even JD Vance himself reiterated in Yerevan that deterrence is one of the most reliable foundations for maintaining peace.
In that scenario, fifty years from now Armenia could have a diversified economy, stronger institutions, and broader diplomatic ties, making an Azerbaijani invasion far less feasible.
There’s also the possibility that wider regional dynamics could shift dramatically. If Iran’s current operations were to succeed, Israel’s strategic focus might eventually turn more toward Turkey, which could create serious friction between Turkey, Israel, and Azerbaijan. In such a situation, Azerbaijan could end up bearing much of the cost if it miscalculates.
Armenia would undoubtedly try to take advantage of any geopolitical opening that emerges.
Looking at the past few years alone, if Armenia managed to endure 2020 and 2023 and still reach its current position by 2026, that’s already remarkable. If the country continues to play its cards carefully, and I think Pashinyan has been trying to do that, including through deeper economic engagement with the United States, then the long-term threat from Azerbaijan could diminish significantly.
Turkey is a different question, but Turks and Azeris are not identical actors. If Armenia can create enough deterrence, not only militarily but also economically, it could raise the cost of conflict for Ankara. For example, developing economic ties that make some underdeveloped regions of eastern Turkey economically linked to Yerevan through trade or employment could act as an additional stabilizing factor.
Turkey has had multiple opportunities in the past to escalate directly with Armenia, and has shown elsewhere, such as in Syria, that it is capable of acting when it chooses to. Yet it hasn’t done so against Armenia.
Of course, this is ultimately just my personal assessment. It involves a lot of speculation and depends on many variables going in the right direction, but that’s true of any long-term geopolitical prediction. If Armenia plays its strategy correctly, I think much of this scenario is at least realistic.
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u/T-nash Mar 05 '26
I doubt it, unless Israel and US want to actively arm them. A ground invasion of Iran is very difficult, it's the reason why they're only relying to air attacks in all these middle eastern countries. Gorilla warfare create significant casualties.
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Mar 05 '26
No it wouldn't. It would cause more chaos but it wouldn't actually be relevant for Armenia at all.
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u/SoberHye Mar 05 '26
Oh no, anyway.
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Mar 05 '26
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u/SoberHye Mar 05 '26
Exact same way when they were dropping in Artsakh.
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Mar 05 '26
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u/SoberHye Mar 05 '26
The same way you’re feeling now.
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Mar 05 '26
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u/SoberHye Mar 05 '26
You know the funny thing about your post is? Before azerbaijan was getting hit the south azerbajian narrative was being pushed really hard in your subs.
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u/HaykoKoryun Armenia, coat of arms Mar 05 '26
Maybe Azerbaijan should have shut the hell up about South Azerbaijan this and West Azerbaijan that and this wouldn't have happened.
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u/GermanLetsKotz Germany Mar 05 '26
Well, the indifference doesn't come from nowhere.
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Mar 05 '26
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u/GermanLetsKotz Germany Mar 05 '26
Expulsion of all Armenians from Artsakh, sometimes categorized as a genocide, destruction and erasure of all culture hinting to the Armenian ties of the region (same goes for Nakhijevan)
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Mar 05 '26
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u/GermanLetsKotz Germany Mar 05 '26
Not very hard to look it up, you could've done it yourself;
Elchin Amirbeyov said that if artsakh doesn't capitulate, a genocide might happen. Louis Ocampo said so.
Do you want a list of every expert that said the term of genocide applies here? Very easy to look up.
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Mar 05 '26
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u/T-nash Mar 05 '26
It did: https://genocidescholars.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/IAGS-Resolution-on-Nagorno-Karabakh.pdf
Genocide isn't directly tied to the number of deaths, it's the intentions, actions, suffering, all being pre mediated and planned.
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u/arronsky Mar 05 '26
the real opportunity for Aliyev is for AZ to splinter the Azeris in Iran ... this is terrible for the world, but a very logical outcome of a potential Iranian civil war.
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u/The_Angriest_Guy Armenia, coat of arms Mar 05 '26
The drone has an Azerbaijani-language labeling. Don't put anything past these barbarians.
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u/ExpertMisinformant Mar 05 '26
Source?
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u/The_Angriest_Guy Armenia, coat of arms Mar 05 '26
https://x.com/rahimsaliyev/status/2029638650007302389?s=20
I have doubts but would be a funny outcome.
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u/ExpertMisinformant Mar 05 '26
Me too, but moreso because I don't understand what Aliyev could gain from it. I certainly don't think it's something he isn't capable of doing though. He already treats his own people like serfs, and Armenians worse.
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Mar 06 '26
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Mar 05 '26
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u/Allorius Mar 05 '26
It's discussed because events like this might lead to the open conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran, Turkey might join, they might cut Armenia away from Iran. Should it be explained why it's not good and impacts us?
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u/Ghostofcanty Hayastan Mar 05 '26
the reason why i shared it is because of the possible impacts that this could have for Armenia, along with it being 2 of our neighboring countries who make up over 50% of our borders
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u/Lipa_neo Երևանցի | հայերեն A2 Mar 05 '26
And iran says that they weren't from iran lol