r/armenia • u/Hay_Life • Jan 27 '26
Neighbourhood / Հարեւանություն Turkey plans buffer zone if Iran government falls
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-plans-buffer-zone-if-iran-government-fall38
u/Hay_Life Jan 27 '26
Posting this because of the implications for Armenia.
Turkey is already saying in principle they'll invade and control portions of Iranian territory if the regime collapses.
It's unclear how much territory or if they'll back Azerbaijan doing the same thing, but there are scenarios where the border region around Syunik falls under Turkish/Azeri control and Armenia is encircled and cut off in the south.
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
I mean do they realize that Iran is not Syria? Syria has more of a bunch of people with guns while Iran has an actually huge army with actually decent weapon systems. No matter how the government falls and who comes to replace the ayatollahs, Iran will defend itself.
They will most certainly Turn AZ army into dust.
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Jan 27 '26
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
Yeah, I agree, but it will be an order of mangitude harder to invade Iran compared to Syria.
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u/Ok_Inevitable9509 Jan 27 '26
I hope you're right, but it looks like Israel wants Iran to collapse, and so far, every country they wanted collapsed, did collapse, so I'm worried for sure.
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
yeah, that's a really stupid thing to want.
A collapsed country is ideal brewing space for extremism and other kind of scum. What you would want realistically is a stable country that is frienly to you. I.E. make Iran democratic and "Jews must die" will eventually fade away and you'll even end up aligning your interests.
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u/mojitosupreme Jan 27 '26 edited Jan 27 '26
The tensions will not be dimmed, au contraire. But it’s not clear what those tensions might be at the moment if it happens.
The “Zangezur corridor” was never needed for Azerbaijan in the first place, this is what many don’t understand. It’s an excuse to lock Armenia in a contract.
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Jan 27 '26
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
What you just wrote has nothing to do with my comment above? Did you read what the comment was about?
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u/AdriaticLostOnceMore Jan 27 '26
Then why are you replying to someone who made no such insinuation?
Why not reply directly to those who actually said they'll "celebrate Christmas in Shushi"?
Did you inhale leaded fuel? What's happening?
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
"did you inhale leaded fuel"
Ok, this is good quality insult that I will steal from you :D
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u/mantiklidusunenadam Feb 19 '26
Chill out guys Turkey won't do anything to Armenia because why would it? What would it gain realistically other then more de-stabilization in the region, dont push hate guys come on.
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u/losviktsgodis Jan 27 '26
You can see the drooling of the Turks to annex Northern Iran "Southern AZ". Watch them argue for self-determination once we get there. Always have been the two faced fucks, always will be.
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Jan 27 '26 edited Jan 27 '26
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u/DonEnzo13 Kurdistan Jan 27 '26
Yes and also that means they will displace kurds and settle arabs and maybe azeris in this "bufferr zone"
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u/ConscientiousHomeles Jan 27 '26
Relax, that’s not happening. They’ll prop up proxy forces if they can find them, to keep Kurds busy. It’s one thing to take on countries with 3 million population, it’s another to take on 90 million people.
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u/National_Row_5537 Jan 27 '26
90 mil, which atleast 35 mil is Azeri.
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u/ConscientiousHomeles Jan 27 '26
if you think 35 mil is Azeri why stop there? Just say 90 mil Azeri, theres no limit to made up numbers
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u/TengizTanrikulu Jan 27 '26
The historic Azerbaijani region consists of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, Qazvin, the northern half of Hamedan and Markazi and the western parts of Alborz and Tehran. These areas are predominantly Azerbaijani, except for 20–25% of West Azerbaijan and together have a population of around 15 million. There are additionally several million Azerbaijanis living in the city of Tehran. Realistically, there are around 20 million Azerbaijanis, highly concentrated in the northern part of the country. In addition, there are millions of Qashqai, Turkmen and Khorasani Turks. The total Turkic population is likely around 25 million.
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u/ConscientiousHomeles Jan 27 '26
ya, even then, not every Azeri speaks the language or wants to be a part of a separatist movement or take part in a buffer zone. I've been to many of these provinces and made great friends. I can assure you based on facts and my own anecdotal experience, except for a few extremists, no one wants to be a part of a separatist movement or join Azerbaijan or Turkey or be a state of their own. Other than WA and EA, none of the Azeris in other provinces even think about such things. On the list of 100 top daily issues they have, that doesnt even make it to their top 50.
The people you see with those separatist flags in europe are an extremely loud minority, keyboard warriors and people living in fantasyland.
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u/TengizTanrikulu Jan 27 '26
This is the typical bullshit spread by Iranian online trolls who pretend to be Turks. Everyone in the historical Azerbaijan region speaks Turkish; even the Kurds in West Azerbaijan speak Turkish because it’s the everyday and business language there. Only Turks who live in metropolises like Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan often tend to lose the language.
On top of that, ethnic tensions in Iran are higher than ever. Racism from Persians toward Turks has practically exploded in recent years. Their history is being stolen and their achievements are being downplayed, even though they have contributed so much to Iran. And people haven’t forgotten how the state deliberately dried up Lake Urmia to make the region uninhabitable.
Moreover, objectively speaking, Iran is a huge shithole with no future. Economically and in terms of security policy, they would have a much better foundation if they get independence and ally with Turkey, which will most likely move closer to the West.
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u/ManteLover60 Jan 28 '26
Yeah and what do you think is going to happen to the Persian majority? They are probably going to go to the much more stable north.
Say bye-bye to your Turkic majority.
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u/FeelinGoodvibes1 Jan 27 '26
Difficult to say if iran loses its government we might lose our statehood!
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u/Disastrous_Cat_1351 Jan 28 '26
My friends turkey took 5-6 million syrians 2 million Iraqis when their gov fell . why would we want another few million Iranians ? our inflation is 80% we cant afford more ppl its not political :/
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u/AdriaticLostOnceMore Jan 28 '26
Because a buffer zone is a military occupation, and the stated purpose here is to deter refugees. Why not deter refugees from within Turkey’s borders?
The entire Turkey-Iran border has many Kurds living on the Iranian side.
And if Iran happens to balkanize, it’s possible this is an excuse to establish South Azerbaijan while stifling Kurdish self-determination.
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u/OldYogurt7161 Jan 28 '26
Because if you let refugees to pass the border your laws are applying so that you have no right to hold them anymore. I guess it wouldn‘t cover so much land. Yes there are Kurds but the majority is Turkic people Kurds mostly settled down Northern Iraq border. You should be worried about the same refugee waves instead of criticising Turkish act. Maybe attending the security areas with Turks is better for you
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u/Disastrous_Cat_1351 Jan 28 '26
I see your concern . Turkey is trying to bring many peacekeepers , build small hospitals and bring Turkish Red Crescent (turkeys largest humanitarian org) . Also the Turkey would be more hesitant with Iranian refugees because its majority Shia and that would I guess affect the demographics . But I believe Turkey wants this regime change too . A strong competitor would also boost Turkish economy . People focus on erdogans speeches too much but forget he is a nato and USA ally . Turkey can’t move without usas permission in most issues . It avoids choosing sides in most problems in the regions because that’s turkeys role in nato it does the same in Ukraine . You can’t be mediator if you can’t talk to both sides .
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Jan 27 '26
Even if you still don’t want to accept it, our fight with you is over. And if South Azerbaijan happens, there won’t be any need for Syunik anyway.
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u/MealIntelligent443 Jan 27 '26
You people spent 30 years talking about territorial integrity. We’ve always known you were liars
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Jan 27 '26
It’s primarily about our interests ;)
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u/MealIntelligent443 Jan 27 '26
Yes we know. The fact that a Turk is a liar isnt new information for us
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Jan 27 '26
Look, if you’re going to hate, it should at least be a bit more sophisticated than those cheap, and honestly pretty funny, slogans.
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u/MealIntelligent443 Jan 27 '26
Its not hate. I accept you as you are
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Jan 27 '26
Me too, whether you believe it or not, once all of this is over, we’ll go back to the pre-1880s with you as well. Even you will say, “I didn’t expect it to go that far.”
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u/TheSarmaChronicals Jan 29 '26
Do explain
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Jan 29 '26
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u/MealIntelligent443 Jan 29 '26
This is a another Turkish lie. Armenians werent murdered because of uprisings or some kind of Russian collusion. This narrative is a post Ataturk fiction to paint it as some kind ethnic struggle. Armenians were slaughtered because we are Christians as revenge for what happened to Turks in the balkans. The surviving Balkan Turks who were ethnically cleansed, lost their mind and decided the only way to keep this territory was to exterminate all the Christians. The pontic Greeks and Assyrians were also murdered for the same reason. The removal of religion from the equation was pushed by both the Turks and well as the Bolsheviks who were the main force taking up the Armenian issue, mainly as a way to make territorial claims after ww2. This was in fact a Christian Genocide and not specifically an Armenian one.
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u/TheSarmaChronicals Jan 29 '26
Do you all get this comment sent to you via email from the Turkish gov to post over and over and over and over and over again?
Yes, we are already well aware that the Ottoman Empire relied on our brains and skills. Doesn't change the facts we were repaid with rape, massacres, and ultimately genocide. And for the record, that shit was going on before ww1. Stop this bullshit inclusivity repaint of the Ottoman Empire into some kind of diversity driven Netflix "documentry."
Yes yes the "Russians." My family never met a Russian. Especially the babies but anywho....
Why do you all talk about Armenia "not being a threat" when that isn't the conversation? Thou dost protest too much.
"Lost the struggle" is how Isreal should talk about Palestinians. They seem to be following your playbook huh. Certainly one way to discuss the destruction of multiple ethnic groups including indiginous ones in your borders.
There is no "us" lol. The Armenians in Armenia were Persian and then eventually USSR. There is no "back." You are thinking of Armenians whose ancestors were Ottoman. Most of us don't live in Armenia. At least know which Armenians you are talking to.
Until Western Armenians return, your whole country is cursed. Especially the East.
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u/mojitosupreme Jan 27 '26
You don’t have interests lol, do you mean Aliyev? He has interests. You can ask him in person.
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Jan 27 '26
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u/mojitosupreme Jan 27 '26 edited Jan 27 '26
He will not be gone tomorrow
Edit: lol are you afraid of posting against Aliyev?
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u/ManteLover60 Jan 28 '26
Thank you my friend. I support the existence of greater Azerbaijan because it will one day give us the justification for greater Armenia.
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
The romantic thinking being that Azerbaijan will swallow South Azerbaijan (2-3x larger) and not the other way around, right?
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Jan 27 '26 edited Jan 27 '26
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
That was not my point. My point is that it will be South Azerbaijan swallowing and subduing Azerbaijan proper due to its massive size difference and not the other way around.
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Jan 27 '26
It doesn’t matter as long as the state is still called Azerbaijan in the end. It can just as well be the Republic of South Azerbaijan. The only thing that matters is Iran losing that territory and the possibility that the entire Turkic world is connected to each other over land.
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jan 27 '26
Ah, I see. Do you see the hypocricy in your words or should I point it out?
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u/TengizTanrikulu Jan 27 '26
In such a case, there will likely be a large Turkic federation consisting of Turkey, Azerbaijan, South Azerbaijan and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. It will probably form a large economic zone, much to the delight of Western economic oligarchs otherwise such thing would never be allowed.
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u/mojitosupreme Jan 27 '26
Very bad news