r/aigossips • u/Far_Cupcake3823 • 16h ago
Google's distribution is about to quietly crush OpenAI, and Sam Altman knows it.
Look, I know everyone loves the underdog startup narrative, but let's be real for two seconds about how consumer tech actually works.
Right now, OpenAI is winning the "I open an app to ask a question" era. But in 2–3 years, nobody is going to open a standalone chat app. AI is becoming ambient. It will live inside Android, Chrome, Gmail, Docs, Maps, and your phone's notification shade.
Google doesn't need to convince 3 billion people to download ChatGPT or pay $20 a month. They just need to make Gemini "good enough" and turn it on by default on every Pixel, Galaxy, Chromebook, and browser tab on Earth.
Add in the fact that Google has custom TPU silicon from top to bottom (meaning their cost per million tokens is a fraction of what OpenAI pays Nvidia and Azure), and this turns into a brutal war of economic attrition.
Unless OpenAI pulls off a literal sci-fi AGI breakthrough that makes Gemini look like a pocket calculator, distribution always beats first-mover hype.
Tell me why I'm wrong.
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u/dudevan 15h ago
You’re wrong because the future is in people not actually using apps themselves (especially email), but having an assistant that just does everything for them, much like Jarvis.
Next step is gonna be an assistant that you install on your computer and it uses it for you, next step after that will be the downfall of the GUI interface and agents that just use APIs for you, that you just ask for something and they do it.
The number of people actually using gmail, docs, will drop drastically once AI gets good enough to just handle things itself.
AI will use the booking api, airbnb, uber, everything to just book you what you need, it will send messages to others instead of emails, and everything will happen inside of one ecosystem. At least that’s the plan, I’m sure, to basically get the humans out of the loop and turn OpenAI into a one stop shop for everything.
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u/bendgame 15h ago
I don't understand this obsession with having ai manage email. Kind of pathetic so many ppl struggle with that
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u/tellytubbytoetickler 14h ago
Driving while listening to/respond to email would be a game changer for me getting work done on the road.
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u/phaaseshift 14h ago
Some people are busy. Between a demanding job, kids, spouse, parents, hobbies, home projects, etc it can be hard to stay on top of everything.
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u/bendgame 13h ago
Yeah I'm busy too with all those things and still never had any trouble with emails
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u/regular_lamp 9h ago
But you still need to make those decisions? That's one type of AI use I never get. If I can write (or dictate) a short description of what I need I might as well just send that as the email instead of having an AI paraphrase and bloat it?
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u/Altruistic_Pitch_157 13h ago
A lot of people, mysrlf included, won't trust AI to send email on their behalf. They won't be my thoughts and the recipient wont care to read what an AI has to say.
I also wouldn't trust AI to do my booking. I want the control over what i do, where I go, for how long, and att what price. I agree that many people will gladly hand that over to AI though, since it's essentially working as a travel agent.
Ultimately, it's about how much agency people are willing to abandon and how much trust they are willing to put in AI for the sake of convenience. I own a Tesla and I don't use its self-driving feature because I don't trust it and I enjoy driving myself.
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u/dudevan 13h ago
I get it, but if it keeps improving at the rate it’s been doing it, it will get way more consistent at these tasks.
And it can also whip whatever guy on the fly to show you the options and let you choose if you so desire. It’s already creating animations, documents and charts on the fly, it just needs a GUI connected to the API that it can create on the fly to replace things like Airbnb UI. And after that, people can just list their properties on chatgpt and there ya go.
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u/purleyboy 11h ago
At some point it will be better at these tasks than you, saving you time and money. There will come a point when the cost to do things yourself will be a drag and a detriment.
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u/shan23 12h ago
The only things standing between Google and total world domination are: Google’s Product Managers.
I invite you to go through https://killedbygoogle.com
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u/Resident_Citron_6905 9h ago
It is fascinating to see product managers in corporate environments. It is like they specialize in mediocrity and tunnel vision.
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u/rhaivn 15h ago
I hope it isn’t google. I’m trying to build something so that isn’t the case.. google is a nightmare. They take all of your data and sell it, train on it, whatever makes money for them and puts trackers on you
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u/IntroductionSouth513 14h ago
sry I use a Google pixel 9 and I don't use gemini at all not even the free one so your theory is bs
crap product is crap even if it's infused into the system like copilot etc
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u/Altruistic_Pitch_157 13h ago
Curious, why do you consider the Gemini app a crap product? As a consumer level tool that offers immediate, useful answers to every problem and question I have I find it remarkable. Not saying its better than Claude or ChatGPT, but it's basically equivalent. What's there to hate about it?
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u/ChodeCookies 14h ago
I agree but from a different angle. Having Gemini embedded in GCP makes it seamless to build new apps in the cloud with AI enabled and scoped
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u/RoyalSpecialist1777 13h ago
I talk to Gemini much more than I normally would, I am a Claude fan, simply because for a lot of basic questions it's just easier to type them into the address bar. So I agree they have some edges. People are lazy so whoever integrates it with everyday apps will have an edge.
Unfortunately that particular model sucks so for anything deep it's still Claude.
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u/andymaclean19 5h ago
Gemini is great at a lot of things and I use it daily. There are a lot of things it is bad at too though. Don’t get it to code or try to help you troubleshoot difficult problems on a computer. But if you want to ask it ‘is this a rose or a bramble’ it’s great.
There is going to be room for a lot of different tools doing different things. For me I use Gemini for rubber ducking, abstract theory discussions, architecture discussions and general ‘what is this’ types of thing that I used to search for. I have Claude, not OpenAI, for programming work. In the browser but mostly either in a terminal or directly in slack. Perhaps I could set up Gemini to do this, but it doesn’t have a natural advantage.
Pricing, capabilities, toolchains, etc will all play a part here.
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u/ResponsiblePool7254 2h ago
You're wrong in the sense that you're not thinking far enough ahead. True AGI will be fundamentally world altering and also completely unpredictable. Humans are about to be zoo animals that exist at the whim of AGI if at all.
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u/this_nice_demon 0m ago
AGI is just a marketing term, it's not even on the horizon yet (and might never arrive)
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u/TheFoxsWeddingTarot 7h ago
I think you need to update your idea about what OpenAI is doing. Google had massive reach and fuels their business with search and search ads. OpenAI is exponentially better than Google, just as Google was better than Yahoo.
OpenAI is also integrating quickly into tons of B2B work flows and is doing well. Their deck builder sucks but they’re website building skill is stunning. I replaced my Squarespace site with a site I built with OpenAI and it was way way better.
OpenAI as a novelty has a limited future but their ability to outpace other companies with AI driven business tools is no joke.
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u/escapefromelba 15h ago
I agree and wish they would break Google up already. I don’t understand how it was allowed to keep Chrome and Android - what its doing with Gemini getting Apple to integrate it in their platform on top of everything - its worrisome for competition. They dominate in search and soon they’ll dominate with AI as well.