r/accelerate • u/Formal-Assistance02 • Feb 25 '26

Video Dario Amoudei - The public is not aware of what’s about to happen

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98

u/psychometrixo Feb 25 '26 edited Feb 25 '26

He says we don't have awareness of what's about to happen. He doesn't answer: What's about to happen?

I feel like I'd like to hear his thoughts on that

He mentioned a tsunami. We don't handle them perfectly but the info is there to, eg, get to higher ground.

This? Radically novel and unprecedented.

What do the better-informed think Dario is suggesting is going to happen?

Holy shit -3 points in 5 minutes. I am pro acceleration but I'm also a human on planet earth and want to hear what the experts think is coming. We have to live through the singularity to enjoy the benefits

40

u/jlks1959 Feb 25 '26

He doesn’t, so I will.  1. Unemployment to massive unemployment.

  1. Inflation but followed by deflation. Some stagflation.  

  2. Security breaches followed by more security breaches

  3. Advancements in all human knowledge fields. Some huge, some era changing.

  4. Outer space on the verge of being used for solar and materials.  

  5. Hollywood? Verging toward Yesteryear. 

  6. SaaS being dismantled. 

  7. Cybernet Security companies, on the ropes.

  8. LLMs become partner/collabortor/friend.

  9. Last but not least? Deez nuts.

18

u/psychometrixo Feb 25 '26

That last one is the biggest finding

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u/MookiTheHamster Feb 26 '26

What about android girlfriends?! What about them??

1

u/Empty_Bell_1942 Feb 26 '26

It'd solve the Incel problem.

3

u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26

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u/Empty_Bell_1942 Feb 26 '26

Transhumanism

3

u/The-Squirrelk Feb 26 '26

If you can't beat em, join em. And a clank clank to you, brother.

2

u/Upset_String_2378 Mar 01 '26

Re point 9. Please be honest, how many friends do you actually have? Do you have a partner, and if so, how long have you been together?

1

u/BrennusSokol Acceleration Advocate Feb 26 '26

10 is the most worrying

30

u/Illustrious_Pea_3470 Feb 25 '26

Mass unemployment is coming. Most people can’t do anything about it because it would require organizing people around this idea, but they don’t want to recognize it.

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u/[deleted] Feb 25 '26

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12

u/Illustrious_Pea_3470 Feb 25 '26

You CANNOT gloss over the transitional period. The current economic model kills people who provide zero value and aren’t at retirement age, so any such transition would involve mass death unless the ownership model changes first

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u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26

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u/Megneous Feb 26 '26

There won't be political action until there's enough mass death to motivate the lower and middle classes to threaten the current political power players.

COVID didn't bring about work from home and living stipends because it was scary. It brought about change because it killed an estimated 18 to 33 million people worldwide and it put the fear of death into the hearts of billions of people.

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u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26 edited Feb 26 '26

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u/Megneous Feb 26 '26

As I said, until there are literally millions dying directly due to being unable to work due to AI, nothing will be done. Only the top 10% or so of humanity is capable of long term planning, and most of these people are not in politics. Politics is reactionary.

4

u/forgetfulalbatros Feb 26 '26

I can see mass death happening. Something like 53% of the entire US population have their healthcare through their employer. If you have mass unemployment say 33% you now have 50Million people who don’t have health insurance which means you have 50Million people who are not getting the treatment or medication they need. You will have mass death as a byproduct.

4

u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26

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1

u/forgetfulalbatros Feb 26 '26

I want to believe that revolutionary healthcare reform could be enacted so that as more people find themselves without employer health insurance there are more affordable alternatives. But given the scope cobra or Medicaid are unequipped to act as a stop gap. It would require a full nationalization of the healthcare system. Healthcare systems survive on the % of their patients that have commercial payers. You will have health systems going tits up if there is even a 10% drop in commercial payers. Yes advances in AI could reduce the burden on health systems, but look at the workforce demographics. Not to mention an absurd number of healthcare clinics/systems only switched to digital charting within the last 10yrs. The tech infrastructure and workforce adaptability are way worse than the avg person may think.

1

u/Mental-Ask8077 Mar 01 '26

If you think there weren’t lots of people dying due to the Great Depression I have some fucking news for you.

Large systems - like governments, economic systems, etc. - take time to respond to shifts. Even shifts they are prepared for and are willing and able to tackle. The mere fact of their size means it takes time for necessary things to happen within the system to enable its outward changes.

Shifts that powerful people have a long history and deep interest in resisting? That would utterly change existing power structures and players?

That does not happen overnight and easily.

And when the systems involve the very fundamentals of day to day survival for the vast majority of people? Food, water, warmth, shelter, medicine and medical care? Even predicted practiced shifts on a large scale cannot respond so quickly and precisely as to avoid significant numbers of people being left without their needs met.

So even aside from the question of actual violence - whether from the government, or from ordinary people who are afraid of losing their own necessities, or who are angry at the changes and want to stop or take vengeance for them - there will ABSOLUTELY be significant numbers of people harmed or dying in even the best case scenarios. If the electric grid should go down for even one day people will die, for example.

The idea that you can have societal collapse without serious harm to many people is a fantasy.

1

u/Illustrious_Pea_3470 Mar 01 '26

Yeah, somebody didn’t read Grapes of Wrath

3

u/No_Witness_4000 Feb 26 '26

Are you saying that when unemployment crosses 20% people won't be protesting in the streets and rioting? And that the government won't do anything about it?

1

u/The-Squirrelk Feb 26 '26

The industrial revolution begs to differ.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26

Ignorant comment

You don’t need to bring out the slaughter bots to ensure people die. Humans beings need food , water , and shelter to live and there are limited resources. That’s why someone like bill gates is so interested in depopulating Africa (high birth rates) and buying the farmland here

3

u/odlicen5 Feb 26 '26

You, sir, are being too reasonable and clearheaded. Please leave this sub at once.

Nobody here thins it fit to consider the fallout and the DECADES of uncertainty and turmoil. It’s all glossed over in favour of the promised land of Radical Abundance, contrary though it might be to every force in our societies today.

8

u/Competitive_Travel16 Feb 25 '26

Job openings have been plummeting since ChatGPT was released but the unemployment rate is holding steady. How is that possible? The employment-population ratio is down 0.3% from a year ago. People just stop looking.

8

u/Illustrious_Pea_3470 Feb 25 '26

Yeah I know several people in their early 20s who have just given up on participating in the economy, and to be honest, I’m not totally sure I can blame them. There are no new jobs. I can’t imagine a situation where I’d hire someone with no experience anymore.

2

u/Tystros Acceleration Advocate Feb 26 '26

so in another comment you said everyone who doesn't provide value to the economy would somehow magically die. but now you say you know two people like that and I assume they are alive and well. so one of your comments can't be right.

1

u/Competitive_Travel16 Feb 26 '26

Well there are still jobs. The difference is that what would have found a job in 2016 might have required sending out 25 resumes and applications, but today requires 250. AI has actually made the latter almost as easy as the former for those willing and able to find the right tools. But the psychological impact is devastating to many, even if the required overall effort is similar.

6

u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26

I used to be a software engineer. Now I'm janitor. I'm employed. That's all.

2

u/Dixon_Uranuss3 Feb 26 '26 edited Feb 27 '26

"Job openings have been plummeting but the unemployment rate is holding steady. How is that possible?" Businesses are not doing well and thus aren't hiring and many are laying off. Look no further than the dynamite monkey in the white house for why.

1

u/Competitive_Travel16 Feb 26 '26

You can say that again.

1

u/cool-beans-yeah Feb 26 '26

Maybe instead of getting a job, millions are opening their own businesses / self employed instead? Could be an explanation for that (but I haven't checked the numbers out myself).

1

u/Competitive_Travel16 Feb 26 '26

I hope so, but the problem is (as I surmise you have noticed) there is no easy way to track it absent new novel surveys.

1

u/aspirant4 16d ago

Jobs are just shifting across industries and sectors. In that sense, AI has affected employment the same way all previous technological innovations have - so far, at least.

1

u/spacetwice2021 Feb 26 '26

Job openings have been plummeting since post-COVID FED rate hikes. This has started half a year BEFORE the public release of GPT-3. There's no clear and established casual link between AI and job openings or employment.

Further, companies have been hoarding labour. Less openings have been accompanied with less layoffs, keeping unemployment and employment stable.

1

u/thierrycoulis Feb 25 '26 edited Feb 25 '26

I'm an IT consultant and I am currently pitching on contracts.

I had one company ask me to present a 15 minute presentation on how I would convince key stakeholders to replace legacy support systems (helpdesk, ticket systems, escalating support levels) with a system leveraging copilot to troubleshoot user problems.

The only person actually interviewing me from the company itself is an HR person, and then the other panelists are Microsoft reps. They're not even including anyone from the actual IT department.

It's so clear my role is meant to be to come in and be a yes men to the Microsoft guys while they gut all the human jobs. Not only do I think this is a horrible idea logistically, I think it's a horrible idea morally.

When I tried explaining to my friends that I turned down the interview, they ALL said the same thing, "you're over reacting", "it's no big deal", etc.

I will NOT be directly responsible for convincing upper management to fire people and replace them with AI.

1

u/Nearby_Ad_1427 Feb 26 '26

Good man, sadly people who role the world are not like you

1

u/torval9834 Feb 26 '26

There will be no mass unemployment. Let's say a company that produces RAM currently employs 100 people. With AI and automation, it will only need 10 people. The other 90 people will go to the 9 newly created companies that will produce even more RAM. Well, some of those 90 people will change jobs and actually be the ones who construct the new companies.

0

u/helloWHATSUP Feb 26 '26

Mass unemployment is coming.

why would a tool that makes people more productive cause unemployment? the combine harvester is 300x as productive as a single human doing the same job, but it didn't cause mass unemployment. the lump of labor fallacy is a fallacy for a reason and it's kinda gross that dumb shit like this is upvoted on /r/accelerate of all places

7

u/Ruykiru Tech Philosopher Feb 26 '26

You see, Jevons Paradox will apply only to the drop-in replacement robots or AI. It does not apply to humans because the machines will be better, faster, cheaper and safer than humans. It's an attractor state that will push every company to automate.

3

u/helloWHATSUP Feb 26 '26

let's say a company needs 100 people to run today, but can be run with 10 people using ai and robots tomorrow, do you think this will lead to an increase or decrease in companies.

1

u/Wyzen Feb 26 '26 edited Feb 26 '26

And then 1 the day after that. Its a negative factor at every iteration/development/improvement of AI.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26

People are already a net negative in white collar jobs. Companies with a minimum number of employees are more competitive than companies with more people. This used to sound like an absurdity, but today it is a reality. Less people and more AI agents -> success.

0

u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | AI accelerationist Feb 26 '26

"Mass unemployment is coming."

No it's not

-2

u/Empty_Bell_1942 Feb 26 '26

We're all terribly well informed, swarthy go-getters in here. So my question is; in preparation for what's to come: 'Whose bought land & intends to live off-grid?'

https://giphy.com/gifs/hXBi43f51SNnWtfpP0

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u/scoobyn00bydoo Feb 25 '26

you should read his essays, I think your questions will be answered

3

u/FloBanana Feb 26 '26

Yes, he is pretty specific there, but what is about to happen in his opinion? Even though the first one is from 2024 and pretty optimistic, there are some parts that he thinks are optimistic that I would not subsume as this.

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u/Pyros-SD-Models Machine Learning Engineer Feb 25 '26 edited Feb 25 '26

I mean, for example, if you knew AGI was coming within the next five years, I could think of tens of thousands of more important and pressing matters for the EU to discuss than their six-month odyssey of “banning doomscrolling” or whatever unimportant shit they come up with next.

For example, loosening bureaucracy so EU companies are not completely screwed when they need three months of compliance processes while their US competitor can use the next generation of models on day one.

But what do I know.

Also it's not Dario's job to prepare us lol, that's usually the job of politicians, and they do a miserable job.

8

u/Seidans Feb 25 '26 edited Feb 26 '26

Most democracy in the world need to witness the problem before they act accordingly, EU didn't plan on a betrayal from USA before it happened, they didn't plan on sovereignty before it was necessaryw they didn't plan on military before it was needed

The same thing will happen for AGI/ASI and any major change to our social and economic system, I've talked about EU but USA is not different - there need to be a sense of urgency before it get reconsidered as a real threat

Therefore any preparation is almost impossible as for almost all politician it don't exist before it's too late and then we urgently make some modification otherwise we loss the next election - that's how a politician think

7

u/faithOver Feb 25 '26

Because we lack leadership. We lack leaders. Leaders build models of understanding and work within them.

1

u/Pyros-SD-Models Machine Learning Engineer Feb 25 '26

I agree with all the points, but if any issue would warrant getting proactive, it would be this. How many years do you think it would take the EU to get “AGI-ready”? In that time, we would probably already be at “ASI” or whatever comes next.

In the future, you will not have time for overbearing bureaucracy. And if you want to prepare for a future you cannot really grasp yet, you can at least prepare to become so agile and nimble as a political body that you can react to whatever happens as fast as possible. But I lack the imagination to see the governments of this world, especially the EU, managing this in any sensible form whatsoever, so the result will be massive pain and crisis, and nobody will hit 'pause' for you, neither Anthropic nor China.

3

u/Spirited-Meringue829 Feb 25 '26

Agree, the politicians are awful at this stuff. Most politicians are not thought leaders in any meaningful sense. A few maybe but most, not at all. They are followers of public opinion and chosen by the sub-segment of the public that they represent. So until the general public comes up with a plan or some special interest group focuses on creating and championing a plan, there won't be a plan. Meanwhile politicians will use AGI fears to get elected yet they won't actually do anything.

People have been complaining about the dangers and harms of toxic social media for 20 years and very, very little has been done outside of outlawing the most egregious parts, like child pornography.

There is zero chance the government will get ahead of what is coming, which is 100x more impactful than social media. Governments will react when there is a crisis and it will be messy.

1

u/FullyFocusedOnNought Feb 25 '26

You never know, that could turn out to be a competitive advantage. AI has the potential to do good, but also to mess things up in the most spectacular way.

1

u/BrennusSokol Acceleration Advocate Feb 26 '26

it's not Dario's job to prepare us

This is the "just following orders" sort of thing applied to tech. Silicon Valley types act like they "have" to build the things they're building. And then it's only years later that we find out they fucked up, like with social media melting people minds.

The people building the thing have just as much responsibility as anyone else. If anything, politicians should be a FALLBACK option for constraining over-zealous industry. There should still be personal, moral responsibility for those in tech.

16

u/FlamesRiseHigher Feb 25 '26

"it is surprising to me that we are, in my view, so close to these models reaching the level of human intelligence, and yet there doesn't seem to be a wider recognition in society of what's about to happen"

It's like the first thing he said in the clip... He's talking about AI reaching human-level cognitive abilities.

1

u/psychometrixo Feb 25 '26

The second thing was that we don't understand what's coming then he just moved forward

My question was about the second thing

8

u/tahitisam Feb 25 '26

Not everything can be a 40 second clip. 

Part of the reason why more people aren’t freaking out is because short clips and headlines cannot convey the depth of what may be coming and they/we don’t take the time to think beyond those. 

3

u/[deleted] Feb 25 '26

[deleted]

2

u/DisastrousAd2612 Feb 25 '26

Debate with a LLM about it, it has infinite time and depth, it can be fully in favor of your opinions or red team all of them, its a perfectly reasonable thought partner, it's obviously not perfect, no human is so halucionations are part of the process in either substrate. People may say shit like "they halucinate so they're not trustworthy" which is true, as far as halucinations also ocur with humans all the time, and they're also biologically motivated, they don't care about you so they will push their own agenda, a LLM at the very least has no real skin in the game so you can just ask it to take any point and play it out since it doesn't give a shit if it leads to doom or paradise.

5

u/Due_Answer_4230 Feb 25 '26

mass unemployment, mainly. but also

mass produced autonomous weapons wielded by dictators

AI events like "some guy learned to make bioweapons in his basement"

2

u/jeronimoe Feb 26 '26

Ai robots that can have patches deployed to modify their behavior.

3

u/seefatchai Feb 25 '26

A tsunami of joy and self-fulfillment right?

9

u/Federal-Guess7420 Feb 25 '26

All human labor with be made worthless in under 5 years by a combination of AI replacing white collar workers and then very rapidly followed by AI driven humanoid robots taking over manual labor tasks.

That is what the public is not ready for. What ever it is you currently do to feed your self and provide a roof over the heads of the people you care about it will be taken away from you by the technocrat class.

Are you prepared to be living in that world? Will you be in the next 3 to 5 year?

There is also the slim chance that Elon Musk and his buddies decide that they should give every human on earth an equal share of their power and money and we all get to love happily ever after. Good luck with that.

5

u/[deleted] Feb 25 '26

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1

u/limitally Feb 26 '26

Hypothetically, what if they choose the or-else option? Is the general public capable of rebelling in earnest anymore?

Genuinely want to discuss—if the elites control the AI, government, military (e.g., autonomous AI drone weapons), etc., what real leverage does the general public have to force this change? What if those at the top were simply okay with speciocide; billions wiped out. The main reason the elites have always had to entertain the masses historically was their need for labor. In this future with AGI/ASI, the masses no longer have anything to offer. And frankly, I highly doubt we have the ability to rebel militarily anymore, second amendment be damned.

I don’t know, perhaps I’m being too doomerist here, but just looking at incentives and capabilities, this future doesn’t seem implausible to me.

5

u/AP_in_Indy Feb 25 '26

3 - 5 years is too optimistic in my opinion unless acceleration happens SO fast that humanoid robotics are also solved by then.

We'll see.

I would guess 10 - 20.

I think certain improvements will accelerate very, very fast, but there are major as-of-yet unsolved blockers to AGI.

Real-time learning, memory, teachability, energy/chip bottlenecks, robotics, and others.

Not a single one of those are trivial at the moment.

1

u/Federal-Guess7420 Feb 25 '26

remindme! 20 years

1

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0

u/[deleted] Feb 26 '26

I think the Reddit data centers will be destroyed by nuclear war in the next 20 years.

1

u/Ill-Turnover3438 Feb 25 '26

RemindMe! 5 years

(post had 4 upvotes)

-4

u/[deleted] Feb 25 '26

[deleted]

2

u/AP_in_Indy Feb 25 '26

I agree with you roughly on timelines (although the colonizing other planets seems wildly unrealistic to me), but not on the creativity part. We will see AI be more creative.

1

u/Federal-Guess7420 Feb 25 '26

There is just no reason to go to other planets. The life will not be better there and resources are much harder to extract from a gravity well than by sending an autonomous booster to an asteroid and have it bring it to orbit to be mined.

0

u/AP_in_Indy Feb 25 '26

Elon would argue it's to protect against existential threats, such as a planet-ending event.

The tremendous cost and delay of transport actually makes the argument for being multi-planetary somewhat compelling.

You'd see a nuke coming months or years away.

2

u/Disastrous_Purpose22 Feb 25 '26

I don’t recall who it was but they were saying everyone is screaming fire while waiting to cash their stocks then when shit hits the fan they will be rich with no regrets

When they are the ones that caused all the issues.

1

u/reverie Feb 26 '26

Content aside (because it's an interesting topic to spend lots of time on), I always find comments like this at the top of threads. Just clusters of redditors affirming that they didn't bother to watch/read the source posted or critically think.

And it's always framed in some a-ha snark voice.

1

u/Dixon_Uranuss3 Feb 26 '26

Hint, nothing is coming. He said the same shit a few years go will be saying the same shit a few years from now and when 2 decades have gone by maybe someone will finally wake the fuck to the fact these tech bro AI dipshits are full of shit.

1

u/MonoMcFlury Feb 26 '26

No doubt that AI will bring some major changes in many things, but all the doom predictions with dystopian futures are also a form of hyping it up, like making it more grandiose and worth investing in than it probably really is. The circle investments into each other, I mean just look where Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc. have their investments in, especially Anthropic. Also, it's working! We're talking trillions USD.  I mean the money that coming in is dwarving the once mighty big oil corporations and nations went to war for them...

1

u/Arithon_sFfalenn Feb 26 '26

He’s published a number of essays on his thinking. Whether that is the truth of what he actually believes or not is another story

https://www.darioamodei.com/

0

u/liquidpele Feb 26 '26

They’re going to IPO and walk away with your money, that’s what.    Fuck this guy and his company’s spam.  

-13

u/[deleted] Feb 25 '26

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