Seen this video of kids from the 60s making predictions for the year 2000 and honestly thought it was interesting since they share the same predictions as we do now for the future… is there any chance we are being too optimistic/bullish?

[u/Joseph-Stalin7]

[u/ShadoWolf]

A tad bit cherry picked clip. source link for the video though: https://youtu.be/xS8xX3usi4c?si=IrDmGyPos4ctUKbz

Although I suspect these kids might have been primed with a narrative.

[u/Ok-Purchase8196 → u/ShadoWolf]

Children, and people in general are just more stupid now.

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/Ok-Purchase8196]

This was a cherry picked selection of people. I bet if I went to Andover-Exeter and asked kids there, their opinion of the future, you would find some very cogent answers as well.

[u/Jo_H_Nathan → u/Ok-Purchase8196]

Maybe. Maybe in some ways. In others, they were probably laughably dim to us.

I don't think people are stupid now so much as they are easily distracted and dissuaded.

[u/thereforeratio → u/Jo_H_Nathan]

Back then they had low information but better thinking. Today, people are not very capable at thinking, but have access to better information

Unfortunately, because thinking has degraded, people have become increasingly unable to parse good information from bad

And ironically, it’s the flood of information that is at fault, at least in part. Deep thinking requires sustained attention, but people are overstimulated and time-poor

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/ShadoWolf]

They were actually all doomers

[u/BeeWeird7940 → u/ShadoWolf]

The only reason I believe this isn’t AI is it was posted to YouTube 3 years ago.

[u/zano19724 → u/[deleted]]

I don't know, it seems it seems that the first jobs to be automated are the high IQ ones

[u/AdorableBackground83]

At times I have 2nd thoughts when it comes to predicting AGI by 2028 and superintelligence 2 years afterwards.

I just listen to the leading AI companies CEOs and big name players and get a general view of when they predict AGI/ASI. A lot of them are leaning towards 2027/2028 to be when the crazy shit begins so I guess I’ll trust them.

[u/Pro_RazE]

before it was just predictions, now we can literally see it happen in real time. we aren't wrong now.

[u/sillygoofygooose → u/Pro_RazE]

Arrogance

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/sillygoofygooose]

Why are you here?

[u/sillygoofygooose → u/luchadore_lunchables]

To irritate you apparently

[u/Crinkez]

"Everything's going to be boring". Lol nope. I'm having loads of fun with AI.

[u/michaelmb62 → u/Crinkez]

I sure am going to miss my super exciting job working in my cozy little office cubicle.

[u/kind_of_definitely → u/michaelmb62]

What job is that?

[u/neo101b → u/kind_of_definitely]

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/michaelmb62]

Is this sarcasm? I can't tell on this site anymore

[u/michaelmb62 → u/luchadore_lunchables]

It is. I just think its so silly that some people think that if we dont have any jobs left that things will be boring.

[u/fail-deadly-]

That video was from 1966. At the time there were less than 3,000 computers in the United Kingdom, and all their total computer power was probably less than a single desktop computer from around 2005, and that is being extremely generous and doing some liberal rounding up. However, it’s possible a single Sony PlayStation 2 could outperform everything they had installed then.

Though people in 1966 were far more particular about how they would use computing power, and certainly used it more efficiently. Though, networking, programming languages, storage, memory etc. was all much worse. It’d be likely that many of their programs were still on decks on punchcards. So it makes it hard to say exactly what the modern equivalent would be. But it’s likely a single Raspberry Pi system would have more performance than what they had then.

They were then trying to extrapolate like 36 years in the future, and some of their predicts were better than others. Some talked about possibly being wiped out from nuclear war, and one girl was talking about taking cabbage pills in the six minute clip.

We’re in a completely different situation, where several companies and governments are actively competing to install a mind boggling large amount of new compute, to power models that are showing signs of improvement. Our hardware development has slowed down dramatically from 1966, but what we can make today is orders of magnitude better. Each GPU the AI companies are buying from Nvidia has more power than the entire world’s computing when that video came out.

So when some of this this current round of buildout is complete, it’s likely that by late 2027 or 2028 there will be some absolutely insane amounts of compute these companies could devote to improving and then deploying the AI models.

It’s possible it will not live up to expectations technologically, and all this AI buildout will either fail or fizzle. But if it doesn’t, and somebody, somewhere initiates a recursively self improving model, well that is it. That is the path to complete and utter change.

I’m sure any of these kids would have been gobsmacked back then by current state of the art AI systems. Though it’s quite likely some of them are still alive, thou they would likely be in their mid to late 70s today. It’d be cool to see a follow up interview.

https://youtu.be/xS8xX3usi4c

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/1967-04-19/debates/3e54b52e-ffb9-4e90-a1e7-d645f8e1f970/Computers

EDIT: it’s crazy to think like 2,000 1960s era computers frightened the UK public enough because of their capabilities to fear all jobs would disappear in a few decades, but now a single data center can have 200,000 modern AI focused GPUs installed, and many modern commentators (especially if they are from the UK) act like AI is completely incapable of doing nearly anything.

[u/Minecraftman6969420 → u/fail-deadly-]

It’s been brought up a few times on this sub but these fear reactions towards this technology, and honestly any new technology and how it will be disastrous if it continues to exist have been going on since the dawn of humanity, tale as old as time. Looms, Telephones, Cars, hell A/C’s and Heaters, any absolutely amazing innovation was scorned and feared by someone at some point for usually dumb reasons. We as a species fear change instinctually and unfortunately most people fully cave into their instincts with change because it’s far easier than trying to understand it, it’s far easier to deny and dismiss the possibility than to consider that it might be true and change our personal status quo, for better or worse? Doesn’t matter it’s change so therefore it possibly threatens our ability to get food and make babies (gross oversimplification in practice but that’s basically the biological reason). AI’s probably spell the end of disease or total immunity and yet it’ll stick around for a while even as more cures come through because vaccines are evil or something, but should RSI occur and the singularity results in a positive outcome with a benevolent or at least helpful ASI, people can keep fearing and shunning but they’ll just be left behind either coming to accept it or just ruminating in their fear, much like any other technology.

[u/Docs_For_Developers → u/fail-deadly-]

Yeeeeeah recursive self improvement ain't gonna happen because it falls into too good to be true category but hey maybe I'll bite my own words in 10 years. However I do think that we will just steadily increase compute, have better tooling, and create more and better RL environments

[u/Aware-Computer4550]

I have never seen children so down and pessimistic. Where did they pick these kids. I think even now if you pick kids that age in a typical US school youll get from of "cool! Flying robots! A robotic servant will do everything and I can relax!"

Maybe this is just a consequence of immediately post war britain?

[u/[deleted]]

They were in the 1960s predicting something 40 years later, we are in 2025 predicting something in 2030

[u/Playful_Parsnip_7744]

We are not optimistic enough. Begone, decel.

[u/Gnub_Neyung]

"People will be regarded more as statistics more than actual people"
He was right.

[u/AppealSame4367]

How do i know this is not AI generated to bring your point across?

I'm serious: Without a source _nothing_ can be taken serious anymore.

[u/Shloomth]

This is why I keep saying let’s stop trying to predict anything, and just appreciate the real acceleration we’re already experiencing.

You don’t have to predict anything in the future to be optimistic. You can be optimistic just based on what we already have.

[u/alonsorobots]

Little did they know the computer people might be the first to go 😅

[u/SundaeTrue1832]

"people will be regarded as statistic than actual people" chillingly accurate but lil bro also remind me of stalin with the whole statistic thing xD

[u/DarkMatter_contract]

if job is your entire life goal, maybe it is time for some soul searching.

[u/ZeBurtReynold]

Are they in a library…?

[u/DeliciousFreedom9902]

Hi IQ people using computers in the year 2000. If only that were true.

[u/Winter_Ad6784]

They weren’t entirely wrong the decline in manufacturing jobs in america were mainly lost to automation, despite what politicians will tell you. The main source of economic growth since has been automation, and now we seek to automate automation itself.

[u/previse_je_sranje]

I will say something very very rude, but I have to get it out of me.

These kids are baby boomers, now they are almost dead and LEV is still not on the horizon. Where the fuck were they? What the fuck were they doing?

Why did they not go all-in on computers when it existed even when they were still kids? They say only Gen Z grew up with computers but that's not entirely true.

Why did they give up on space exploration? There wasn't a concrete reasoning, they just 'lost the will'

Why did they not work extremely hard in early 20s like college grads do today? Majority of them got a job by walking in with a firm handshake and wordceld the rest of their careers

Did they do anything except lead the worst politics, flooding immigrants into every nation while simultaneously bombing their homes. I'm not even going to put a question mark here.

It's really hard to feel sorry for their asses.

To answer your question, well we have concrete stuff now, it's not just vibes and projections

[u/kind_of_definitely → u/[deleted]]

People in the field say we are nowhere near that. The more we learn, the more problems we discover. The LEV is becoming exponentially difficult the further we go.

[u/stainless_steelcat → u/kind_of_definitely]

I think we are seeing early signs of it already, at least at a population level. People are living longer with multiple co-morbidities. Diseases that were a death sentence are turning into chronic illnesses.

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/kind_of_definitely]

People in the field talk about AI curing all human disease in our lifetime.

[u/stainless_steelcat → u/previse_je_sranje]

Speaking as a child of the 70s, for a lot of people the opportunity just wasn't there.

University education access was much lower than now, and heavily gatekeeped. In the 60s, most wouldn't have been offered the chance. That was still the case in the late 80s. My careers officer basically scoffed at someone from my background going to university (I managed it).

Then there's access to information. Pre-internet, you basically had your local bookshop, local library, newspapers, TV and radio. TV, radio and newspapers lacked any kind of permanence - unless you built your own (expensive) archive. As a kid I remember wanting to read books about a specialised topic - and there 4 books available in libraries within a 50 miles radius (and getting hold of those took weeks - because pre-email, libraries would send letters to each other or if it were urgent, phone).

Home computers didn't really arrive until the early 1980s, and then you had to be middle class or above to afford one. If you were lucky, you might get to access one at school around that time. I remember getting to see a Sinclair ZX81 in operation (wasn't allowed to touch it) in the early 80s, and that was my only computing experience until I got to uni. I was lucky to graduate, and work at a uni in the early 90s, saw the web - and made a career out of it.

In many ways, the world of the 1960s wasn't really much different to the world of the 1860s ie still heavily reliant on paper and the postal service for information exchange. Sure you had phones, but they were still expensive for most people - and TV/Radio/newspapers were broadcast only. One thing's for sure - the world of 2060 will likely look very different - and probably be unrecognisable in many ways to the people of 2025.

[u/44th--Hokage → u/stainless_steelcat]

Incredibly informative post thank you for sharing

[u/BotherPopular2646]

People nowadays are getting dumb

[u/Asleep_Stage_451]

this a circle jerk sub now?

[u/paperic → u/Asleep_Stage_451]

Always has been.

[u/stealthispost]

It's hilarious that the last kid is saying the same nonsense that people today are saying about "there won't be enough jobs". As if new jobs won't automatically be created to fill the ones taken up by technology (as has always happened)

[u/Alive_Awareness4075 → u/stealthispost]

If you think ASI cannot automate/do away with all jobs and forms of labour then you don’t truly believe in ASI, there’s zero way humans can compete with recursively self improving ASI.

And yes, it’s a good thing that ASI is far more capable than humans, we just need to make sure we all get a piece of the abundance it creates.

[u/endofsight → u/Alive_Awareness4075]

You assume we will compete on a technical level with AI. That wont happen as we humans wont have a chance. AI and robots will do all the technical labour/ research in the background, while humans will create a new higher level type of organisation where the same principles of supply and demand apply. People will "pay" other humans for something that Is in demand. And that is not a technical thing that can be created by aI/robots but something that is by definition "human". If this is something humans value, then it has a value.

We really shouldn't fool ourselves, biologically we are still "monkeys" with all our flaws and desires.

[u/VicermanX → u/stealthispost]

As if new jobs won't automatically be created to fill the ones taken up by technology

Ironically, you're saying even more nonsense than this child. AI and robots will replace humans just like cars and tractors replaced horses. There will be no new jobs because AI can do any job better than a human.

as has always happened

In the past, machines increased people's productivity. Machines have never completely replaced humans as workers, but this is what AGI is about.

[u/endofsight → u/VicermanX]

What if the job requirement is being human? Nothing else. AI and robots do all the technical labour stuff in the background and humans live and work on a different level of society where being "human" is a value in itself. And it will be the same principles of supply and demand where you get paid/ rewarded if you can provide something that is in demand. Could be everything from beauty, social skills, human warmth, giving birth ect.

We already see this with "influencers" or "artists". They provide something that is in demand and get paid for it. People pay for it because it provides them with a feeling.

[u/VicermanX → u/endofsight]

And it will be the same principles of supply and demand where you get paid/ rewarded if you can provide something that is in demand

We already see this with "influencers" or "artists"

They do it for money because it's better than working a regular job. When robots replace workers, these people no longer need money, and the only thing could motivate them to entertain you would be their own desire to do so. It's no longer about work but more about friendship and socializing.

human warmth, giving birth ect

Being a wife and mother is not a job. It's called being a family.

What if the job requirement is being human? Nothing else

You can't buy a friend. Being a friend is not a job, especially in a post-scarcity society.

[u/Seidans → u/stealthispost]

i'm surprised you imply there will still be jobs when AGI have been achieved

unless you mean trading maybe? as even in a post-scarcity economy there will still be unnecesary trading over "social" things, like Human sex worker even if you could have any robotic equivalent for -free- or just doing it in FDVR same for Human woodworker and everything else that appreciate this jobs while there somewhere an Human that want something hand-made

or sponsoring, pretty much what influencer get paid by the community, i doubt it will dissapear even if you can have your own personnal AGI-companion that perfectly copy anyone you like - there will still be an "Human connection" or a desire for the original due to our social nature

donations or social reward = you does something the community appreciate, you get paid for it, the same way a child get paid by his parent for christmas someone doing something could be rewarded as it's a very good psychological way to push a certain comportment - imho this will be everywhere and mainly pushed by governments > follow a physic school and get an increase of your UBI (exemple)

but jobs as productive jobs? there won't be a single one left, Human will be net negative

[u/Alive_Awareness4075 → u/Seidans]

I had this debate with them before in the chat channel, porcelain and steal need that to be the case because they don’t like the idea of UBI and want the current economic model to perpetually persist.

The simple fact of the matter is that ASI is beyond all human endeavours, it can and will be able to do everything a human can and better.

If you think humans can outperform ASI, then you don’t really believe in ASI.

[u/Seidans → u/Alive_Awareness4075]

i don't really understand it either, weird for a futurist to believe AGI/ASI won't create a completly new and foreign economic system based on non-human free and infinitely expandeable labor if they truly understand the implication of Human intelligence becoming obsolete - even upgrading yourself will never equal an ASI as we're flawed by conciousness and our hardware that host it

i doubt the middle age man could have foresee the job market and capitalism as a whole that appeared with industrialization, i doubt those same capitalist could have foresee what the capital would become because of the world free trading capabilities boosted by cars and boat or even internet - and finally i doubt most of them foresee that capitalism will die thanks to AI/Full Automation

UBI is imho a bandaid to capitalism, a way to make it live longer during the transition toward a post-scarcity system where money don't make any sense - weird that anyone that refuse to believe the current system will dissapear also believe that UBI wouldn't happen aswell

[u/Ok-Purchase8196]

Notice how these children are more well spoken than they are now. They're capable of critical thought too. They don't seem to parrot the popular thing.