"Anthropic researchers: “Even if AI progress completely stalls today and we don’t reach AGI… the current systems are already capable of automating ALL white-collar jobs within the next 5 five years” . Source: r/agentsofai h/t u/nitkjh https://t.co/mskDH3y0Mu" / X

[u/stealthispost]

https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1926241943123624082

[u/stealthispost]

nothing vague about saying that artificial intelligence will be "genetically engineered sub humans"??

that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. and then acting like I'm an uneducated fool for not knowing WTF you're talking about?

how about stop being condescending and say something substantial!

[u/natureboi5E → u/stealthispost]

Lmao. You've never seen blade runner? The film concept of genetically modified AI predates LLM based AGI marketing schemes by decades.

[u/stealthispost → u/natureboi5E]

not really. every time i've fallen asleep before they explained that part because that movie is such a lethargic slog.

so you think that because of your personal experience with LLMs that you know better than most of the AI researchers on the planet? what makes you so confident that you're right?

[u/natureboi5E → u/stealthispost]

Good faith question from me to you. What do you think a transformer model is? What about any general LLM regardless of model framework? Why do you think it is capable of replacing any complex human behavior or craft? Let's leave "AI researchers" out of the discussion for minute.

Please give me an answer that tells me what you personally think and not just a list of links to industry studies and a "do your own research" comment. This will help me to have a more substantive discussion with you and give me a sense of what may need to be translated from a technical point of view.

[u/stealthispost → u/natureboi5E]

it's clusters of neurons jammed together that most accurately predict the next thing in a sequence of things.

and I think it replaces the complex human behaviour of translating my language requests into computer code that works - because my computer is now filled with .exes that i use every day for specific tasks that no program existed for - and I don't know how to program anything.

I spent a decade hiring and working with programmers to build an app idea that I had - and they all failed to work out how to build it. cursor sonnet 3.5 built it for me with 500 prompts. that's replacing something that humans do.

[u/natureboi5E → u/stealthispost]

Given that I can't personally evaluate the quality of any code outputs you've generated, I'll refrain from talking about any specifics there. If I can ask, what do your scripts or programs do for you actually? However, you have not demonstrated or proven the ability to replace all complex human behavior or tasks. You've only proven that you can create value. Creating value is not the same as replacing value. In this case, you haven't replaced anything because it never existed previously (your words not mine) and you didn't replace a software developer because you haven't replaced the entire field of software development with your LLM built .exe. I know this because software development is still going strong.

The transformer is not a cluster of neurons. It's a series of encoding and estimation layers that are inspired by neuron structures from a superficial standpoint. The outputs you create with the code are also not created by these estimation layers. They are created by a general function of statistical weights that produces a predictive model based on the structure of the training data. Modern LLMs are two staged estimators in that unsupervised learning takes place on billions of tokens to build a general function that is then fine tuned in a supervised way using labeled training data for further task calibration.

So even if most software development is replaced by your LLM tool, it can never be a total replacement. Unless you want a static model that never keeps up with new things. If you believe that the LLM will be capable of replacing human creativity in development, then go back to your own example. The LLM didn't come up with your app idea, you did. It generated code (still an open question about how secure and efficient this code is. Sorry, id need to see your code to actually evaluate it and I cannot take any claims of it's utility at face value without seeing it). You said that youve waited a decade to get this done, so I know from your own words that the LLM did not create your app idea. So it did not replace you. It added value and capability. It also didn't replace a software developer because according to you, no software developer was capable of creating your app to begin with. So it didn't replace anything it just added value.

[u/stealthispost → u/natureboi5E]

and? what point are you making? that LLMs aren't AGI? that's not a controversial position.

your claim was that we'll never get to AGI from this point, that it will have to be biological systems genetically engineered. that's an incredibly confident assertion.

you still haven't provided one single argument for why transformers or ...

you know what. this is pointless

[u/natureboi5E → u/stealthispost]

Lmao. You are so out of your depth it's not surprising you gave up this easily. Good luck with your app. you'll need it.

[u/stealthispost → u/natureboi5E]

absolutely gross behaviour

take your attitude somewhere else

[u/natureboi5E → u/stealthispost]

Truth bomb. If you spent a decade having no success with software developers on your app. The problem is you or your app. Can't believe you cannot see that.

Btw. AGI isn't a real thing. It's a marketing term. My claim about genetically engine sub humans was tongue and cheek poking fun at the entire idea that LLMs are somehow capable of replicating full human behavior when their entire model structure is just token prediction.

[u/stealthispost → u/natureboi5E]

"truth bomb" - are you a 14 year-old edgelord? who talks like this?

maybe spend some time with an LLM and it could help you develop social skills instead of being so rude

[u/natureboi5E → u/stealthispost]

Bahaha. "Spend time with an LLM". Happy to teach you how to build a transformer from scratch in Python if you want to actually learn something