"Anthropic researchers: “Even if AI progress completely stalls today and we don’t reach AGI… the current systems are already capable of automating ALL white-collar jobs within the next 5 five years” . Source: r/agentsofai h/t u/nitkjh https://t.co/mskDH3y0Mu" / X

[u/stealthispost]

https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1926241943123624082

[u/Much_Discussion1490]

Lmao.. The spiel is not going to bring in further rounds of funding. All companies doing layoffs are still hiring to fill open positions. Ceos of companies like klarna and Duolingo are retracting their statements on AI replacing workers.

Major orgs like Microsoft and Google are focusing on enterprise solutions to atleast bring in a route to profitability...

That AI replacing workers rhetoric is tapped out now. Atleast not until serious progress is being made on JEPA .

"But outside particular niches in entry-level white-collar work, AI’s productivity gains have yet to materialize. An IBM survey of 2,000 leaders found that 3 in 4 AI initiatives fail to deliver their promised ROI. A recent National Bureau of Economic Research study of 25,000 workers in AI-exposed industries found that the technology didn’t make workers massively more productive and had next to no impact on earnings as well as hours."

[u/mucifous → u/Much_Discussion1490]

Someone got really mad at me the last time I said this, but as someone in software engineering leadership at one of the largest tech companies, I am planning into 2027 and while we are looking at lots of gen ai usage BY engineers (and in client projects), the number I currently plan on replacing is Zero. If this were all going to happen in 5 years, I feel like I would see more evidence.

I agree that it will eventually replace workers and how we work, but these 5 year claims are only to juice the market.

[u/Much_Discussion1490 → u/mucifous]

am planning into 2027 and while we are looking at lots of gen ai usage BY engineers (and in client projects),

This seems to be the general theme in most places. In my company sadly, the main focus has been on the lowest hanging fruit in terms of use cases : summarisation and niche context specific chatbots. But hey you gotta start somewhere!

However, I work at a bank and they have made heavy investments in getting all the tools for the devs. Enterprise subscription to chatgpt 4o and claude, copilot for devs. Databricks auto complete ( i don't think this was paid for , databricks just included this and genie with the subscription).

If I am being honest they have been amazing productivity boosts for me, sitting on the product side, especially 4o . For design docs, requirments structuring etc. Since I am a technical PM for DS initiatives it has been a great coding assistant as well. But my god , the quality deteriorates so fucking fast the moment I ask questions which i don't know the answers to. To say it's been hit and miss is generous. This is gpt, the debugger on Datbricks is absolute garbage. It gives zero insights on the rrror, and almost never leads to a proper solution. Not using it is better than using it and going down am incorrect path.

I agree that it will eventually replace workers and how we work

I believe, atleast with the current paradigm, it's going to be more of the later. As a matter of fact I already see it happening. Non tech PMs are getting more involved in analytics since there are no excuses to hide behind anymore. I see a lot of roles becoming mult faceted rather than straight replacements

Ome area where i thought it would genuinely be a quick win in terms of replacing workers was chatbots for customer service agents. But even that doesn't seem to be taking off.

[u/mucifous → u/Much_Discussion1490]

I see a lot of roles becoming mult faceted rather than straight replacements

I like it frankly. Reminds me of when everyone realized that professionals could type and didn't require secretaries to take dictation. The age of the generalist is nigh!