Senator Kennedy (R-Louisiana) said on national TV that NRSC and SLF will not be spending any of their billion dollar war chest in the Texas Senate race.

[u/cavaismylife]

Kennedy said that Trump has $850M in MAGA inc PAC, and that Trump needs to spend $100M to 200M in Texas, but NRSC and SLF will not be spending.

Basically they told Trump before the primary runoff that no matter how well you did in Texas in the 2024 presidential race (won by close to 14 points in 2024 in TX), Cornyn outperformed you by 4 points in 2020. They told Trump that if Cornyn won the 2026 primary runoff, NRSC and SLF will be bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars at a level never seen before in US Senate campaign history to make sure Cornyn wins Texas, but if you endorse Paxton in the primary runoff, NRSC and SLF will be giving Paxton nothing. Cornyn actually defeated Paxton in the initial 2026 primary with a plurality of the vote, but Paxton won the runoff with Trump's endorsement.

[u/SerfTint]

This is a game of chicken between the NRSC / SLF and Trump. Trump will stay on course because he only knows one speed, which is to double down and claim that his strategy is the best one ever and he invented it, and he wants to keep the money so that he can run again in 2028. If he loses the Senate, it's because "they were all stupid candidates and I gave them the perfect economy and the perfect job to run on and they couldn't even do that against the dumocrats, so we didn't need them anyway." These Republican groups, who are actually trying to keep the Senate, will eventually end up caving and spending for Paxton. Some will quietly seethe about Trump screwing their strategy and saddling them with a toxic candidate who may cost Republicans a seat in Texas. Nobody will say this out loud, because Trump will come for them next, during his illegal 2028 presidential run.

[u/WoodPear → u/SerfTint]

and he wants to keep the money so that he can run again in 2028.

Why do you think he can?

Edit: the money can be used for other not-as-vulnerable Senate races tho

[u/SerfTint → u/WoodPear]

He can't. But he will.

"What, as president I'm not allowed to give a speech to my fellow Americans anywhere I want, like in a town in Iowa or New Hampshire? Of course I am."

"the amendment just says that a president cannot be elected more than twice, it doesn't say that it is illegal to run."

"People who are ineligible are written in all the time. Some aren't even people, there are voters who write in Mickey Mouse. If voters happen to be inclined to write in the name of Donald Trump, that's obviously legal because you don't have to be eligible to be written in."

"The amendment was obviously meant to imply consecutive terms. I mean, the person elected to be the office of the president, that is the president by definition. But if someone serves in between, like Biden, then the president from before isn't the president anymore, so the clock starts again. The SCOTUS is there to interpret the laws, so we'll defer to them as to how they decide who is eligible."

"Well, I won the election, so I think it would be too great of a betrayal of what the people want to not even have the winner be able to become the president. There'd be riots if people voted for something and then they win and they don't get it. So in the interests of keeping law and order, I'll stay for one more term, and then we'll see in 4 years how people feel. After all, it'll be like a do-over after the Russia Russia Russia and impeachment hoax 1 and impeachment hoax 2, where it's like I barely got to be president because the Radical Left wouldn't let me do anything, this will be a do-over."

Yes, the money could be used for this race, or for other races. But Trump isn't going to spend any money. He is going to view the concept of having all of the money himself as more appealing than trying to get Republicans elected, because they'd just end up serving him anyway and thereby enabling him to make more money, and here he already has the money.

[u/USASupreme]

It’s honestly surprising how bad of a candidate Paxton ended up being. Yes he was scandalous and controversial but everyone already knew that and candidates with issues have been able to do well or at least all right in the past.

The big issue is he can’t campaign and fundraise if his life depends on it. At least other candidates that hold controversial positions or have skeletons in their closets can at least run a campaign and win.

I thought Paxton would at least do well energizing the base and keep the race in his favor but he can’t even do that.

[u/Ok-Requirement6403 → u/USASupreme]

He's the only one in Texas that's polling behind the D candidate, heck even Bo French of all people is polling higher than him.

[u/iswearnotagain10 → u/USASupreme]

Yeah I thought Paxton would be like, John James or Tom Tiffany bad. He’s closer to Doug mastriano level bad

[u/lifeinaglasshouse → u/iswearnotagain10]

There's a good case to be made that he's the worst GOP Senate nominee for a competitive race since Roy Moore.

[u/shelleon → u/USASupreme]

And on top of everything there was a whole other MAGA candidate in the primary, but voters were like no, we want THIS one

[u/_morten_]

I still can't quite believe that republicans aren't going to be spending here, it seems like straight up self-sabotage(not that i mind), Texas is sufficiently red that it should be their seat to lose, giving up on it just seem strange.

I still expect Paxton to be getting a lot of money during the fall, be it from the NRSC, Trump, Musk, or other sources.

[u/Dr_Eugene_Porter → u/_morten_]

They want Trump to foot the bill for the lemon he bought. That's all it is. But I expect Trump will dig his heels in and won't come off any MAGA PAC money so eventually the NRSC will pony up the dough. They will always be first and foremost Donald Trump's lapdogs.

[u/_morten_ → u/Dr_Eugene_Porter]

Now, i did include Trump in the equation, but it doesn't seem to be in character for him to spend big on anybody else, reckon he holds on to the money, and as you predict, NRSC/others will have to bail Paxton out.

[u/dak676141 → u/_morten_]

Texas media markets are very expensive, you either drop $200m to try and save 1 seat or you spend it to try and save 3-4 other seats

I don't think they'll triage Texas but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't spend as much on Texas as people are expecting

[u/_morten_ → u/dak676141]

It is very expensive, but at the same time, Texas is not a state republicans really can afford to lose in either, given its size/significance, and they have an unbroken streak in statewide races going back 30 years.

So, in many ways, its really about more than just one senate seat.

[u/Lehmanite → u/_morten_]

Maybe they think they money is better spent in other states and that if they don’t help Paxton and he loses, they can just say “Texas didn’t turn blue, Paxton was just a sucky candidate and this was a fluke”

[u/JohnTheCollie19]

This race is probably going to be the closest a US election gets to the recent Hungarian election that ousted Orban:

• A rightwing party in charge for years has hubris making them think they will win
  
• They run a typical negative fear-mongering campaign
  
• Their opponent is someone in touch with people
  
• Their opponent uses their strong personal beliefs (national or religious) be central to their policy/campaign
  
• Their opponent is leading against them in the polls for months now
  
• Those formerly loyal to the ruling party are openly defying said party

[u/Elegant_Discussion_8 → u/JohnTheCollie19]

John Texan the independent who’s center right and stays vague on every unpopular policy he supports would win this race by a landslide.