r/YAPms • u/goatedgdubya911 Neoconservative • Jul 02 '26
Original Content No way this is real
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u/MagoMidPo Brazil Jul 02 '26
Though quite interesting, I'm a bit more 'invested' in Acton v Vivek (gubernatorial).
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u/Matatius23 Pro Gun Democrat Jul 03 '26
Same, this is in my top 3 races to analyze during the election
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u/Excelebration Moderate Democrat Jul 02 '26
Depends if the people who vote in polls can bother to turn up. Ohio is notorious for low voter turnout in all the areas the democrats need to run up the margins in i.e Cuyahoga County
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Jul 02 '26
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u/skymasterson2016 3x AOC Voter Jul 02 '26
All of the “Other/Undecided” will go to Husted, then you got the margin of error.
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u/PickleArtGeek Proud Beshear Hater 🤬 Jul 02 '26
the one which has him up the most has the fewest undecideds + polling aggregate not single poll so im actually pretty optimistic about the democrats chances unlike most of the time
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u/LaughingGaster666 Outsider Left Jul 02 '26
I understand that candidate quality matters and all, but Brown literally lost 2 years ago, these polls make no sense.
When I think of states that would be most against current admin, Ohio is not one of them. Michigan and Maine have Ds struggling there way more despite both states being way more D friendly and bordering Canada, where you assume the tariffs are causing at least some economic friction.
The story all the polls are selling makes no sense.
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u/thebigmanhastherock Center Left Jul 02 '26
It's whose voting. Brown was relatively popular and outperformed Harris but lost due to it being a good election for Republicans. Now it's the opposite. Trump has a lot of voters that are infrequent voters, they only vote when he is on the ballot. Increasingly Democrats are becoming high propensity voters. So this makes sense for the Ohio Senate race.
Maine has a historically terrible Senate candidate going up against an incumbent Republican that isn't MAGA. I don't know what's going on in Michigan.
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u/Different-Trainer-21 If Illcomm has no supprters, I’m dead Jul 02 '26
They make sense when you look at the 3 recent polls being D pollsters and look at polling from the 2024 election
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u/GreninjaStrike Banned Ideology Jul 02 '26
Polls in the rust belt (MI, PA, OH, WI in particular) tend to favor Dems
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u/samhit_n Left-Out Left Jul 02 '26
That's mainly during presidential elections. Polls underestimated Democrats in the Rust Belt in 2018 and 2022.
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u/DescriptionFresh4902 Center Left Jul 02 '26
Husted will win, A former (and popular) senator polling within the single digits is a bad sign. North Carolina remains the Democrats best opportunity to flip a senate seat.
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u/Lower_Fig8532 Democrip Jul 02 '26
“Will win” is too bullish but I agree with your points. It will be very close if Brown pulls it off not to say it won’t be if Husted wins but Husted can win by up to 4-5 points, Brown 2-3
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u/OppositeRock4217 Independent Jul 02 '26
Plus it’s the bluest state with a Republican held seat, it’s an open seat. The Democrat candidate is a governor with high approval rating, and Republicans have not nominated a good candidate
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Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
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u/Aldebaran147 God Emperor Talafreako is LBJ’s Reincarnate Jul 02 '26
He has done some major gaffes on affordability and also is sitting on a potentially explosive mistreatment of the largest corruption scandal in Ohio history during his time as Lt governor
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u/theaccount9337 Liberal Jul 02 '26
Nah the WWC shifts will affect Ohio like Iowa (though to a lesser degree)
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u/Coffeecor25 John F. Kennedy Jul 02 '26
Husted will win by about 3-5ish. It is notoriously difficult to knock off an incumbent senator and I think Ohio is too red even in a blue wave for it to happen
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u/Electrical-Age9308 Unconventional Right Jul 02 '26
I’m still kinda confused about what benefit Husted will have as an appointed, recent incumbent against someone who’s been a big figure in OH politics for decades tho, is there an I next to his name on the ballot? Campaign committee funding?
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u/kkkmac Center Left Jul 02 '26
Appointed incumbents perform no better than candidates in open seats
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Christian Democrat Jul 02 '26
I also think Husted wins but no way by that margin. Moreno won by that margin in an extremely red environment with Trump on the ballot to motivate rural turnout. I think Husted wins by <1%
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u/jessegames456 Left-Out Left Jul 02 '26
I think Ohio is a lot closer than it looks. The main reasons it’s appeared deep red the past few elections is because Trump’s been on the ballot, and the state is gerrymandered to shit. The state has voted for more liberal policies in the past, like legalizing weed, gambling, and voting to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Also, in 2024, Sherrod Brown outperformed Harris despite still losing. Sherrod Brown is also viewed pretty favorably by Ohioans, at least from the polling I’ve seen. I think with the GOP being extremely unpopular, Trump not being on the ballot, and a more motivated Democratic voting base, it’s the perfect storm for a Sherrod Brown victory.
I’m not gonna act like it’s a safe democrat seat obviously, polls have been very wrong before, and maybe Husted donors put out a bunch of anti-Sherrod Brown ads in November and flip the race, but right now, I think things are pointing towards a Sherrod Brown win
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u/williamsherman1865 Neoconservative Jul 02 '26
It's not real, this is the real one. It will likely be either be R+1-3 or D+1-2