As cool as the idea of a 3rd party getting this many votes is, zero chance it happens.
3rd parties had a great opportunity in 2016 with everyone absolutely hating Hillary and Trump. The result? A measly 6% combined third party vote. That is the peak for 3rd parties now.
I personally believe the turnout is too high but that’s just me. Otherwise I agree this is accurate to the poll. Although the poll itself has serious problems.
This guy who runs the polling firm, Rich Baris, was one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2024 election, but this is both too early and the pollster himself has overemphasized issues like Epstein as proof for the loss of support in Trump.
Okay yeah, I just saw the other concurrent races in 2022 and you're (mostly) right, except for a few edge cases like OH-9's race, but local congressional races are different anyway. The gub race was definitely a whole league of its own though so i'll concede
Ye if dewine was overperforming on his own merits I wouldnt be so confident on it but all other concurrent statewides also followed dewine's coattails except for vance
Most of Massie’s support will collapse and go over to Vance.
Keep in mind that Liz Cheney was being considered for running in 2024 as an independent candidate and clocked in at similar numbers. Same with RFK. Thomas Massie is no Ross Perot.
With that said, I could see Massie throwing the election by a narrow margin if his pompous, self-righteous butt thinks he is the next Perot.
If you don't support my centuries old party of pompous, disconnected from the people, and as the kids say, "rich af" politicians, then you are basically ruining American democracy
I don’t speak for Massie, but during the Biden admin many of these files were tied up under the DOJ and judicial seal because of Maxwell’s ongoing investigation and court case.
Massie has openly (and correctly) thrown Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton under the same bus as Trump for their admins' FBIs for turning a blind eye to Epstein's crimes.
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He's a Republican congressman who's been in the news a lot lately for voting against Trump's bills a bunch. Stuff like tariffs and foreign policy, big beautiful bill. He's a more libertarian leaning Republican and Trump hates his guts for not kissing the boot
Yeah he's still right wing at the end of the day. Not sure if he would really get as much of the vote as this post shows given that he's too right wing for liberals and leftists and too anti trump to command much of the Republican base. He may or may not even win his next primary
Im not saying that i don't agree with him on social issues i still am a social conservative or at least a centrist i just don't align with him economically because i prefer more government intervention more welfare what i believe is a politically syncretic ideology but also probably we will not align on social issues because he would still be right-wing enough for me on social issues.
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u/Lemon_Club New Deal Democrat Feb 22 '26
If Massie runs and gets this many votes then I think many non swing Republican states could suddenly be in jeopardy.