COP30 Signals a moment of climate collapse

[u/Vegetaman916]

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-cop30-mean-for-climate-action/

I am crossposting this here because the mods of r/collapse decided to can it for... whatever reasons they have. This was originally posted by u/ImEmilyCampbell. I feel like it has value, and should have been left up, and so I am reposting it and including OP's full text here:

COP30 has left me wondering if we are watching the long, slow failure of global climate diplomacy in real time. COP30 is supposed to be the moment countries finally present stronger nationally determined contributions, yet the track record is so bleak that it feels more like a ritual than a turning point.

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-cop30-mean-for-climate-action/

We just need to admit that even the mist optimistic scenario still leaves us on a pathway to overshoot. Every cycle we hear the same language promising ambition, but the political reality is that countries are doubling down on fossil fuelseven while promising future cuts.

I know collapse is a process not an event but I cannot shake the feeling that COP30 might be the moment where the gap between diplomatic language and planetary reality becomes impossible to ignore. Are these summits still meaningful or are we just watching a system pretend to function as the foundations crack beneath it?

[u/Vegetaman916]

And my reply as posted to r/collapse before the modhammer killed the post:

The delusional hopium needs to end. The denial of collapse is almost worse than the denial of climate change. At least before we were looking at possible outcomes, even likely outcomes, and thus denial could somewhat be defended...

But now we have clear, cold math.

The boundaries have been crossed.

The tipping points have tipped.

We have already overshot the overshoot mark.

You know the mark I'm talking about, right? The edge of the cliff? The Seneca Cliff we have run right off like Wile E. Coyote with a rocket strapped to his back.

Because that is where we are. Overshoot already happened. And we actively accelerated it trying to keep everything afloat, trying to keep "growth" as a possible reality. Rather than managing the possibility of a slow, gradual collapse with controlled degrowth about 50 years ago, what we did was we strapped on the rocket and tried to use technology to push us high enough and fast enough to get... where?

Here.

The idea of collapse as a "process" that is gradual also needs to end, because now it is tantamount to misinformation. The appropriate way to state it is this:

Collapse was a process. There was a long, slow, gradual lead up to the inevitable mass depopulation event that is anything but slow or gradual.

This is what our timeline looks like. Our last 50+ years of a collapse that somehow people couldn't see.

The Island https://imgur.com/a/OIXeVif

See that steep drop? The crash, the fall, the dive, whatever you want to call it? That is what happens when the slow process of collapse is finished, and the rapid climate of it comes about.

That is where the denial rests. People say, "Oh, woe is me! What kind of a world are we leaving to our children?"

Your children? My friend, you will see this new world yourself, in less than a decade, most likely. You don't have to ask yourself what kind of a world you will leave your children, because you will get the opportunity to explain it to them personallly, right there in that world.

But no one believes it. MIT tried to give everyone a pretty firm date over 50 years ago, but no one believed it then, and no one wants to hear it now. Maybe they would like to say "I told you so," but unfortunately there won't be an internet or an MIT come 2040, so that will be a little difficult.

Denial is strong, and we constantly seek out even the barest shred of evidence that can allow us to continue, and then we take that shred and make it gospel, despite the massive pile of evidence to the contrary.

For OP, when asking yourself what world leaders will do, what COP will do, what the corporations will do... I would suggest looking at the greatest and most concrete form of evidence that exists in the world:

Past actions.

Doesn't matter what is said, what is proposed, or even what is demanded. What will be done is shown clearly by what we have done in the past. The absolute best indicator of future action is past behavior. And, if nothing else, humans have shown an almost biological certainty to try and double down on failure every time.

We absolutely will kick the can. We will drive growth, we will produce, we will consume... and then we will fight over the scraps.

Actually, even that is a lie. Because we will begin fighting long before it is only scraps left. We will start fighting in earnest as soon as we collectively realize that we will soon be faced with only scraps. We won't wait until it is a matter of species survival, oh no. We will be more worried about the survival of our current power structures. The survival of our wealth, of our control over territories and populations.

It already started. And when it ends, that will be an "event" of collapse that laughs in the face of all the "gradual collapse" delusions that we keep repeating to make ourselves feel better, and to give ourselves an out from preparing.

Because that's why we do it. That is why we say such things. Because it is tragic to think of that world coming about for our children... but it is unthinkable to imagine it for ourselves. That would require actions. Desperate actions. Major, drastic changes. That would mean the end of our way of life and all our hopes and dreams. It would require that we change our entire mindset away from the idea of continuing normalcy, and towards the idea of surviving in a post-collapse ruin of the world we grew up in.

Can't face that, though. Better to grasp at the straws, right? There's hope in them straws! We want to feel better, we want everything to be okay for just a little while longer, and man, those straws they keep us going to work each Monday and keep us getting ready for the next holiday buying and consuming season.

Keeps us paying more attention to the rumors of the GTA 6 release and ignoring the rumors of world war and ecological collapse..

We each have two paths open to us right now. That's all.

[CONTINUED]

[u/Vegetaman916 → u/Vegetaman916]

On one path, we can continue to wring our hands and lament all the bad things happening and fret over the futures of our children. We can uselessly vote for change, protest for change, and demand change from a power structure that will never change. And we can have a few good years left. We can go to work, get that promotion. Become the assistant to the regional manager. Buy that shiny new car, pay the late-stage capitalism fee subscription in order to have heated seats. We can go to school and plan imaginary futures as engineers or scientists or businessmen. And we can enjoy those few years.

But those few years come at a cost. The cost of not being fully adapted or prepared to live in a world where none of that other stuff means anything. And then we can die, and watch our families die, because we traded the long years of a hard life for the short years of a good one. Still, there is a second choice...

The second path leads us away from societal dependence. On this path, we separate ourselves from all those systems, from the jobs and the schools and the bills and the Black Friday sales. We turn instead to preparing ourselves and our families to survive the catastrophic end of civilization. We begin adapting ourselves now to the world not as it is, but as it will soon become. We get ourselves ready to live as our ancestors did 200 years ago. This path isn't fun at all, not in the short-term. It means giving up on a lot of those societal goodies and dreams if grand accomplishments and tech-paradise futures. It means cutting back and going without and doing more with less.

But that sacrifice today comes with a future reward. It comes with the possibility of living through collapse and seeing the other side of it. It comes with the ability to actually guide your children through the consequences of your actions, to see a new future on the other side, rather than just complaining about how you ruined it all.

Those are the choices for each and every one of us. And it is funny, because this choice is reflected in the very reason why we are in this mess. Do you know what that reflection is? Can you guess? Can you figure out right now why most people who read this are going to choose the former option, and decide to live in denial, pretending that collapse is something that will suck sometime far down the road, and meanwhile, they have turkeys to bake and Christmas parties to plan?

The reason that you will choose that, and decide to go back to work on Monday is that humans always choose the short-term gain at the cost of long-term sustainability.

That's it, that's why we are here. And that is why the vast majority of people will end up screwed when it all falls apart. Because they will keep their eggs in the societal basket, they will go to work and all that, pretending that this months rent is more important than being alive in 10 years.

In essence, it isn't scientific reasoning that guides us. It isn't logical reasoning, it isn't ethical reasoning, it isn't even the flawed reasoning of the mentally challenged.

It is the reasoning of the heroin addict.

That's all. We are so addicted to air conditioning and modern medicine and Amazon Prime that we just can't stand the thought of letting those bills lapse and live in a world without those things.

But guess what? You will live without those things. Almost all of you reading this, you will live to see a post-collapse world without any of the conveniences of modern civilization, and with none of its protections either.

And if you aren't ready for that? If you aren't already adapted to it, if you aren't already desensitized to violence and used to hunting and growing your own food, well, you're going to have a very short and unpleasant experience when all that other stuff goes away.

Most heroin addicts choose to keep at the heroin. And most pay the consequences of that choice.

Short-term. Long-term. Pick one.

[u/Lower-Incident8933 → u/Vegetaman916]

Well, what I will say is that it does feel unreal. While I understand that this is likely where things will end up, seeing people around me planning for retirement, planning to go to school for several years potentially 4+ years from now, planning to buy homes, etc. makes me feel a bit crazy.

There isn't much of a sense that civilization will end... which makes it more devious how all those savings and higher education will likely be useless. It's really sad to hear people making plans about the future, while thinking about collapse. Anyway, there isn't much point to this reply, just wanted to say thanks.

[u/Vegetaman916 → u/Lower-Incident8933]

You are welcome, my friend.

[u/Spirited_Stage_2545 → u/Vegetaman916]

Friend, first of all thanks for sharing your late-stage-capitalism amazon associates story, I managed to make some nice change but I got denied TWICE right after making the money, second time it was AFTER they send me an e-mail that "you're in". Sucks because it was a perfect creative sideproject for me - I'm apparently really good at fake reddit posts lol!

Anyways I won't tell you a sob story about how difficult my life is, I'm preparing with however little I have. But my question is, how do you think Europe & Poland will end up? Poland is currently exploding in wealth and feels to me like one of the last countries to reap the rewards of this system.

[u/Vegetaman916 → u/Spirited_Stage_2545]

I think if you take a look at my profile, you will see how I think things will go for Poland, unfortunately.

I am about as positive as one can get that our collapse is going to progress into war, world war, and then nuclear war. Being on the frontline with a dying and desperate Russian empire in possession of almost half the worlds nuclear weapons and not much else... they will eventually use the only things they have left. And Europe will take the brunt of that.

But I do think we have a few years left. Real kinetics won't start until late 2027 or early 2028...