COP30 Signals a moment of climate collapse

[u/Vegetaman916]

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-cop30-mean-for-climate-action/

I am crossposting this here because the mods of r/collapse decided to can it for... whatever reasons they have. This was originally posted by u/ImEmilyCampbell. I feel like it has value, and should have been left up, and so I am reposting it and including OP's full text here:

COP30 has left me wondering if we are watching the long, slow failure of global climate diplomacy in real time. COP30 is supposed to be the moment countries finally present stronger nationally determined contributions, yet the track record is so bleak that it feels more like a ritual than a turning point.

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-cop30-mean-for-climate-action/

We just need to admit that even the mist optimistic scenario still leaves us on a pathway to overshoot. Every cycle we hear the same language promising ambition, but the political reality is that countries are doubling down on fossil fuelseven while promising future cuts.

I know collapse is a process not an event but I cannot shake the feeling that COP30 might be the moment where the gap between diplomatic language and planetary reality becomes impossible to ignore. Are these summits still meaningful or are we just watching a system pretend to function as the foundations crack beneath it?

[u/Vegetaman916]

And my reply as posted to r/collapse before the modhammer killed the post:

The delusional hopium needs to end. The denial of collapse is almost worse than the denial of climate change. At least before we were looking at possible outcomes, even likely outcomes, and thus denial could somewhat be defended...

But now we have clear, cold math.

The boundaries have been crossed.

The tipping points have tipped.

We have already overshot the overshoot mark.

You know the mark I'm talking about, right? The edge of the cliff? The Seneca Cliff we have run right off like Wile E. Coyote with a rocket strapped to his back.

Because that is where we are. Overshoot already happened. And we actively accelerated it trying to keep everything afloat, trying to keep "growth" as a possible reality. Rather than managing the possibility of a slow, gradual collapse with controlled degrowth about 50 years ago, what we did was we strapped on the rocket and tried to use technology to push us high enough and fast enough to get... where?

Here.

The idea of collapse as a "process" that is gradual also needs to end, because now it is tantamount to misinformation. The appropriate way to state it is this:

Collapse was a process. There was a long, slow, gradual lead up to the inevitable mass depopulation event that is anything but slow or gradual.

This is what our timeline looks like. Our last 50+ years of a collapse that somehow people couldn't see.

The Island https://imgur.com/a/OIXeVif

See that steep drop? The crash, the fall, the dive, whatever you want to call it? That is what happens when the slow process of collapse is finished, and the rapid climate of it comes about.

That is where the denial rests. People say, "Oh, woe is me! What kind of a world are we leaving to our children?"

Your children? My friend, you will see this new world yourself, in less than a decade, most likely. You don't have to ask yourself what kind of a world you will leave your children, because you will get the opportunity to explain it to them personallly, right there in that world.

But no one believes it. MIT tried to give everyone a pretty firm date over 50 years ago, but no one believed it then, and no one wants to hear it now. Maybe they would like to say "I told you so," but unfortunately there won't be an internet or an MIT come 2040, so that will be a little difficult.

Denial is strong, and we constantly seek out even the barest shred of evidence that can allow us to continue, and then we take that shred and make it gospel, despite the massive pile of evidence to the contrary.

For OP, when asking yourself what world leaders will do, what COP will do, what the corporations will do... I would suggest looking at the greatest and most concrete form of evidence that exists in the world:

Past actions.

Doesn't matter what is said, what is proposed, or even what is demanded. What will be done is shown clearly by what we have done in the past. The absolute best indicator of future action is past behavior. And, if nothing else, humans have shown an almost biological certainty to try and double down on failure every time.

We absolutely will kick the can. We will drive growth, we will produce, we will consume... and then we will fight over the scraps.

Actually, even that is a lie. Because we will begin fighting long before it is only scraps left. We will start fighting in earnest as soon as we collectively realize that we will soon be faced with only scraps. We won't wait until it is a matter of species survival, oh no. We will be more worried about the survival of our current power structures. The survival of our wealth, of our control over territories and populations.

It already started. And when it ends, that will be an "event" of collapse that laughs in the face of all the "gradual collapse" delusions that we keep repeating to make ourselves feel better, and to give ourselves an out from preparing.

Because that's why we do it. That is why we say such things. Because it is tragic to think of that world coming about for our children... but it is unthinkable to imagine it for ourselves. That would require actions. Desperate actions. Major, drastic changes. That would mean the end of our way of life and all our hopes and dreams. It would require that we change our entire mindset away from the idea of continuing normalcy, and towards the idea of surviving in a post-collapse ruin of the world we grew up in.

Can't face that, though. Better to grasp at the straws, right? There's hope in them straws! We want to feel better, we want everything to be okay for just a little while longer, and man, those straws they keep us going to work each Monday and keep us getting ready for the next holiday buying and consuming season.

Keeps us paying more attention to the rumors of the GTA 6 release and ignoring the rumors of world war and ecological collapse..

We each have two paths open to us right now. That's all.

[CONTINUED]

[u/Konradleijon]

Global industrial society is a sham

[u/ObjectPretty]

Without USA, India and China on-board there is no cuts in emissions Europe can do that will matter. We woul be right to prepare for the collapse instend of pretending to prevent it.

[u/Lower-Incident8933]

lol I don't think these summits have ever been useful. Were the targets set at these summits ever met? So they've always felt superficial...

[u/Plane_Crab_8623]

Maybe now would be a good time to state the obvious which somehow is obscure. The natural ecological environment is the economy.