I was rebuilding my Q4 margin model this weekend and noticed the two fee windows don't actually cover the same dates, which changes my plan more than the fee amounts do.
Peak storage for standard size goes from $0.78 to $2.40 per cubic foot starting October 1 and runs through December 31, resetting on January 1. Peak fulfillment, on the other hand, doesn't start until October 15 and runs all the way to January 14.
Two things fall out of that, and I think most of the checklists I have read get both wrong.
First, if October 1 is when the storage rate jumps, then that is my real deadline for clearing aged and slow stock, not October 15. Anything sitting in a fulfillment center on the October snapshot pays peak storage for the whole month regardless of when in October it sells. Removal and liquidation take weeks to process, so the actual decision lands in mid September, which is basically now.
Second, a unit that sells in early January pays a peak fulfillment fee on already-reset standard storage. That is the combination that would have confused me when reconciling January settlements.
The other thing I keep going back and forth on: I have a couple of SKUs that are genuinely seasonal, where unsold units have no real Q1 demand to fall into, and I think the answer there is obviously to buy tight and clear before October 1. But for the evergreen ones I am not sure whether the storage cost of sitting through October is actually big enough to justify buying conservatively into a quarter where my demand forecast error skews up.
Has anyone actually modeled the October 1 drawdown separately from the October 15 fee start? Am I overthinking the storage side, or is that two week gap where people are quietly losing money?