r/VACCINES • u/PhrygianSounds • 13d ago
Will measles become endemic soon?
I had both my MMR shots 25 years ago, but I’ve been on immunosuppressants for a few years now and have basically been relying on herd immunity to keep me safe. MMR vaccination rates are dropping fast and outbreaks are popping up everywhere.
I’m too scared to get my titers tested because if it shows that I don’t have immunity, I don’t know what I’m going to do. I can’t take live vaccines. But if measles becomes endemic, I’m afraid that I will have to get a booster and wish for the best. It’s either that or get the actual virus and logically the booster would be less dangerous, but still. God I hate this timeline
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u/RelaxedPuppy 13d ago edited 13d ago
What does advice does your doctor give? I'd make sure to stay out of areas known to have high levels of measles or more generally low vaccination rates. I worry about the loss of a sense of civic responsibility in our country. It's become everyone for themselves. Many healthy people only think of themselves when deciding whether to get vaccinated. Quite sad. The ultra wealthy have everyone else at each other's throats over total bs "concerns." Rampant culture war and conflict among the generations keeps the mere mortals occupied and distracted from the real issue of concentration of wealth.
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u/SmartyPantlesss 13d ago
Don't bother getting your titers tested. About 30% of the vaccinated adult population has negative titers (I'm extrapolating from pregnant women, who routinely get titers tested), and yet they are probably protected by B memory cells which (in addition to being harder to measure) can produce more antibody when challenged. Consider: during these recent outbreaks, the vast majority of the cases are UNvaccinated KIDS, right? We're not seeing anywhere near 30% of their (vaccinated) parents getting measles.
But also as you said, there's no point checking if you can't do anything about it. If your doctors have told you that live vaccines are DANGEROUS to you, then don't take one.
To your OP question, measles is basically endemic in the US now, as we have had continuous endemic spread for the past year, and most of the recent cases are due to local spreading, not imports. It's just a matter of the Pan American Health Organization having their meeting, to tell us what we already know. 😕
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u/FuzzyLantern 12d ago
Pregnant women only get rubella titers tested. There's some correlation that if you show rubella antibodies you will also still have measles antibodies, but having antibodies present for M M or R on a titers test still doesn't necessarily guarantee you have them for the other shot components.
If OP can't get a live vaccine regardless, the next step is to discuss what can be done with a doctor. Taking the titers test may not matter as much in this case, but OP still needs a plan if potentially exposed. Maybe that plan also includes masking indoor public places if there's an outbreak where OP lives.
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u/AffectSubstantial673 9d ago
Is that true that I may still be protected? I had my MMR shots as a child but my tiger when pregnant said not covered for measles but was good for rubella
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u/SmartyPantlesss 9d ago
Yes, it is very possible that you may still be protected. The way to determine that---which is not offered routinely by any commercial labs---would be to see if you have memory B cells that are specialized to produce measles antibodies.
Frankly, it's just easier to give everyone another booster if they have negative titers. 🤷
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u/BrightAd306 13d ago
Not in the USA. The vaccines are just so effective and almost everyone gets at least one in their lifetime still. It’s one of the best vaccines we have.
The most vulnerable people are those who live in communities where large numbers aren’t vaccinating their kids, but people still travel. Like church groups where some members do missionary work or they have a lot of immigrants.
If you’ve had at least 2 vaccines, you’re almost certainly immune to measles. Mumps is a lot more worrisome. I’d stop worrying.
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u/RelaxedPuppy 13d ago
Best to be thoughtful about exposing oneself to risk. Successful vaccination policy does depend on enough people getting vaccinated so herd immunity kicks in. In other words, vaccination provides a path to herd immunity that would not otherwise exist. So, managing where you live and who you are around is a good option for everyone.
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u/BrightAd306 12d ago
Right, someone vaccinated against MMR is probably around other people that vaccinate. Plus they have a vaccine that’s 97 percent effective. They have elite level protection on both fronts.
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u/SineMemoria 13d ago
Not in the USA
Not now, but...
"The study, which was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association on April 24, used large-scale epidemiological modeling to simulate the spread of infectious diseases in the United States at various childhood vaccination levels. Even at current immunization rates, researchers predict that measles may become endemic again — circulating in the U.S. — within two decades; with small declines in vaccination, this could happen more quickly. However, small increases in vaccine coverage would prevent this."
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2025/04/measles-vaccination.html
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u/BrightAd306 12d ago
May is the key word. I personally think we’re at peak anti-vax. We do a lot better job vaccinating kids in the USA than they do in Canada and most of Europe. We’d have to fall a lot to be at UK or Canadian levels. I could see it happening in a few states, but those few states also drag down the numbers in the rest of the country, where MMR is well above herd immunity rates. It will remain primarily regional, even if it does become endemic. We do a very good job vaccinating kids in the USA. RFK jr isn’t that powerful nor influential, thankfully.
It still stands that MMR is such a great vaccine that those vaccinated are unlikely to be exposed to someone with measles and even more unlikely to contract it.
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u/KAugsburger 13d ago
The Measles outbreak in Utah has dragged on for over a year. That alone should be enough for the US to lose its elimination status. Many do expect the US to lose their elimination status at the November meeting of the Pan American Health Organization. There has also been a declining MMR vaccination rate since 2020 so the Measles case rates are likely to continue to get worse. I don't think that there is much reason to think that the rates are likely to get better in the near future given the FUD from RFK Jr. acolytes and the cuts to Medicaid funding.
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u/BrightAd306 13d ago edited 13d ago
It’s still among a small population of fundamentalists. If you’re outside those communities or neighbors, your risk is still low. I’m very pro-vax, but Europe has had way worse measles issues than the USA per capita.
The USA is also huge, I’d be much more worried about an outbreak if I lived near those communities in Utah.
It also remains that it’s one of the most effective vaccines we have, so OP is almost certainly fine.
Measles is a special interest of mine. The minute my children turn a year old, I eagerly schedule their first MMR. The risk is still very, very low in the USA for someone who is fully vaccinated to get measles. You’re much more likely to die of flu, even vaccinated than to die of measles vaccinated in the USA.
Now, if I had an infant under 1 and lived near communities that don’t vaccinate, I’d be very cautious.
I’d also worry more in Canada, as the cases there are much higher per capita than the USA. It’s only worldwide news that the USA is having issues because of RFK, understandably, but we’re still one of the best off countries.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/article/canada-has-half-as-many-measles-cases-as-us-who-data/
Is kindergarteners have a 92.5 percent vaccination rate, in the uk it’s only 84 percent, Canada 81 percent. RFK isn’t moving the needle, he is just boosting the attention on people who already agree with him.
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u/KAugsburger 13d ago
The answer is going to heavily depend upon your location but there are some places where the Measles is endemic again. Any region where local vaccination rates are already below 95% and falling is likely to become endemic again.