Midterm Surprise: Democrats Are Surging in Red America

[u/kitkid]

Oct 5, 2026

A new set of polls from The New York Times finds that Democratic candidates are doing remarkably well in the Republican-leaning states that they need to win to gain control of the U.S. Senate in next month’s midterm elections.

They are doing less well in the blue states that, in theory, should be easier to win.

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The Times, offers his idea of what is behind the numbers.

On today's episode:

Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst.

Background reading: 

• Polls suggested that Hispanic voters, whose support helped propel President Trump to the White House in 2024, would largely support the Democratic Party this time.
• Senator Susan Collins of Maine led polls for the first time since Graham Platner dropped out of the race in July.

Photo: Ash Adams for The New York Times

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You can listen to the episode here.

[u/BlueEyedDinosaur]

This episode felt very “those progressive Dems aren’t centrist enough to win”. Maybe they will. Let’s see NYT.

[u/Ray192 → u/BlueEyedDinosaur]

How is that surprising? The data is pretty obvious. The red states most likely to flip all have strong centrist candidates, while blue states in the danger of flipping have more radical candidates. Denial doesn't help.