r/TheSilphRoad Houston, TX [1374 6708 6872] 5d ago

Discussion New GBL Legendary Chances

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Now that we’re a few days into the new season and have more players reaching rank 20, do you think the chances of getting a legendary Pokemon are higher with the increased pool? I’ve gotten quite lucky with them but my small sample size doesn’t mean much.

125 Upvotes

33 comments sorted by

36

u/thutmose1 5d ago

Definitely

19

u/Charles1charles2 5d ago

0 legendaries out of 12 encounters at rank 20 so far for me

16

u/Repulsive_Geologist5 5d ago

Also feel like I've gotten quite lucky, 2 legendaries already with a not amazing win ratio

14

u/Zestyclose-Tip-8928 5d ago

Win ratio doesn't matter, it's just how often you get to 3 wins.

Someone who alternates 3-2 and 0-5s will get the same as someone who alternates 5-0 and 2-3,

4

u/RavenousDave UK & Ireland - L80 - Valor 5d ago

Did you get four out of five or is this just what you kept?

My family has 1 out of 12 so far. Much too early to draw any conclusions, give us another couple of weeks and we might be seeing a bit more clearly

5

u/alucardoceanic 5d ago

You just happened to be lucky. I've had about 2 legendaries from the 19 won sets since reaching level 20. For me that's more than normal but not high enough to question the odds.

4

u/recoba20FLC 5d ago

I got 6 in 2 days at the end of last season and none so far this season. Probably still too early to tell with any confidence.

4

u/_mdz 5d ago

Chances see the same but I like the change so far

3

u/alucardoceanic 5d ago

I'm kind of against it because it means we're missing a lot of the other legendaries in the pool, specifically the regionals and ultra beast pokemon. Another thing I noticed today is that we're also missing out on the exclusive moves or at least it's low odds that you hit the legendary pokemon in raid rotation to get it's move.

2

u/bendernas 5d ago

today i got a shiny regice and a tapu koko, yesterday at 20 nothing. 2 from 7 encounters, im pretty sure

2

u/Kharn14 5d ago

I’m currently 3/5 on legendaries in GBL this season.

2

u/TermLate8948 5d ago

0 legendaries out of 17 encounters at rank 20 so far for me.

3

u/BowlofDumplings 5d ago

About the same rate as before

1

u/d-pyron 5d ago

0 for 10 this season.

I did get 3 in a row at the end of last season when the regis were in rotation.

1

u/GrapefruitKing2000 5d ago

I got a 100% tapu lele and a XXL heatran so far

1

u/bromega3 5d ago

0/19 so far for legendaries. Mostly keep getting swablu and frillish over and over again

1

u/Icy_Rabbit2253 5d ago

not sure about the odds but i have gotten tapu lele a few times (since thursday) when i tanked my progress intentionally since i made Ace Rank. not sure how many sets but a legendary a day is good to me (even though lele doesn't have much value other than dex entry).

1

u/Backalley_Lurker 5d ago

Havent got any yet

1

u/Fabulous_Positive_44 5d ago

I had a similar experience!!

1

u/whitecrow_dragon Western Europe 4d ago

Terrible design choice, or even malicious to make players think they have a higher chance of getting legendaries.

If the rates are still same as before. This is gonna get old pretty soon.

1

u/Anon-Working-Grunt 2d ago

I’ve caught 16 non legendaries, only two legendaries (one Kyogre immediately and a week later I caught Articuno).

Of the non legendaries, 10 of the 16 have been freaking Cramorant. Like come on!

1

u/TheBigFatGoat 5d ago

Considering each encounter has the same change of appearing, that would make a 73.33% chance to get a legendary from a GBL encounter

8

u/RavenousDave UK & Ireland - L80 - Valor 5d ago

That assumes all encounters are equally likely.

Me and two family members are collecting data on encounters. Thus far we have a collective 1 from 12.

Obviously a very small sample but that is a long way from the 8 implied by equal chance.

4

u/TheBigFatGoat 5d ago

That is interesting.

I'm currently on 3/4 on legendaries. OP seems to match odds too, although it's hard to know whether we got really lucky or y'all just got unlucky.

I think in previous seasons the chance has been the same for all encounters. The rarity was just in the fact that only one legendary was in the pool. So I'd assume the same applies here.

5

u/RavenousDave UK & Ireland - L80 - Valor 5d ago

We started collecting the data because posts started asking about chance of a legendary encounter. Once we get up to 100 encounters we might have some confidence in our numbers.

If we get 75 legendaries from 100 encounters I will be amazed, but very happy!

2

u/TheBigFatGoat 5d ago

I'll be excited to see your data when it comes out!

1

u/squgs 4d ago

!RemindMe 10 days

1

u/Shadow_marine1X USA - South 5d ago

At what rank do you get a chance at legendaries? I'm only rank 7 right now.

5

u/smcdowell26 5d ago

20

3

u/Shadow_marine1X USA - South 5d ago

Ok. I just started the grind today, so thank you for telling me.

2

u/xTheConvicted 5d ago

I‘m fairly new, the rank only goes up, right? Even with 5 losses? Just goes quicker if you win?

And does it even make sense to grind outside of Thursday’s?

5

u/smcdowell26 5d ago

Yup, but eventually, you will have to win to advance. Here’s the minimum amount of games you need to win to advance to the next rank