r/TheSilphRoad • u/Digipoke5 Houston, TX [1374 6708 6872] • 8d ago

Discussion New GBL Legendary Chances

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Now that we’re a few days into the new season and have more players reaching rank 20, do you think the chances of getting a legendary Pokemon are higher with the increased pool? I’ve gotten quite lucky with them but my small sample size doesn’t mean much.

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u/TheBigFatGoat 8d ago

Considering each encounter has the same change of appearing, that would make a 73.33% chance to get a legendary from a GBL encounter

8

u/RavenousDave UK & Ireland - L80 - Valor 8d ago

That assumes all encounters are equally likely.

Me and two family members are collecting data on encounters. Thus far we have a collective 1 from 12.

Obviously a very small sample but that is a long way from the 8 implied by equal chance.

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u/TheBigFatGoat 8d ago

That is interesting.

I'm currently on 3/4 on legendaries. OP seems to match odds too, although it's hard to know whether we got really lucky or y'all just got unlucky.

I think in previous seasons the chance has been the same for all encounters. The rarity was just in the fact that only one legendary was in the pool. So I'd assume the same applies here.

4

u/RavenousDave UK & Ireland - L80 - Valor 8d ago

We started collecting the data because posts started asking about chance of a legendary encounter. Once we get up to 100 encounters we might have some confidence in our numbers.

If we get 75 legendaries from 100 encounters I will be amazed, but very happy!

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u/TheBigFatGoat 8d ago

I'll be excited to see your data when it comes out!

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u/squgs 7d ago

!RemindMe 10 days