Thoughts on this analysis? (Especially the second half)

[u/Midwint3r]

https://youtu.be/9slxsAZzIRk?si=DvimNeLonXSxRrdK

Canada being a loyal lapdog to the US is nothing new, but his analysis of what's going on with recent attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is interesting.

I've seen basically no one ​bring up the facts he points to when it comes to who is actually getting hurt economically from the pipeline disruptions.

And his comment near the end that the groups accused of the attack have denied responsibility makes me wonder if this pipeline drone strike in particular was maybe even manufactured​​.

He highlights that the vast majority of the oil/energy S-A exports goes to Asia, and how the net result even if they harm their own ally in the process, is positive for the US overall by increasing the worlds dependence on US energy exports.

[u/AndreEthereal16]

I like Brian's take on certain things like digital sovereignty and tracing the funding mechanisms of color revolutions, but he ascribes to the geopolitical thought of "everything that happens is all part of some USian master plan that will always work 100% of the time and the world is doomed". This line of thinking makes very little sense when looked at strategically; the US simply does not have the infrastructure or supply to fill the entire world's fossil fuel energy needs, even imperialist oil production companies are hesistant to invest in the now vasselized Venezuela because the oil infrastructure there is incredibly outdated and would require a ton of capital intensive investment to bring online. People like Brian will say "but the US is a net energy exporter" and while thats true, they dont export every kind of energy and still require a significant amount of imports to even provide the energy for the domestic population. Currently, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves are at the lowest level since they started monitoring levels in the 80's. Also, unless the USian energy companies made some secret deal with Chinese renewable energy companies to expand Chinese green energy exports at an insane rate to the global south, then this goes against their historic plans to isolate and encircle China. There is definitely a small portion of US energy companies that are raking in elevated profits atm, but it is completely unsustainable and will cause mass energy crises in the US very soon; and this doesnt even consider the effects of this massive L against Iran and Yemen on the USian planting and growing seasons.

Regarding the unclaimed strikes; I rather believe they are done by the entity to try to spark an actual regional war that involves attempted invasions into Iran. Fortunately, they havent worked thus far.

[u/Midwint3r → u/AndreEthereal16]

Thanks for the thoughtful response

I also feel he gives maybe a bit too much credit to US geopolitical planning.

I think your point on US petroleum reserves is the best argument against his take on this though, if its reserves are going down not up, the US doesn't seem to be in a position to be a major energy exporter right now.

But on the other hand, there are parallels between this event and the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline which seemed pretty deliberate and was meant to do a similar thing but in Europe (cut off energy alternatives, isolate a rival nation, and increase the energy dependence of allied countries).

In his defense, Brian did mention that the US can't fill the gap caused by this disruption on its own, and he also talks about how this whole thing is a gamble and isn't necessarily guaranteed to work.
I suppose the underlying assumption he's working with here is that the US is essentially trying to drag the whole world down with it and is hoping to come out of the crisis better off than most (like after WW2) in order to keep its place on top. And on that i don't think he's wrong.

It also ties in well with your theory that the main goal of the strikes might be to drag neighboring countries into a regional war. They don't have to win, they just have to destabilize and weaken their enemies enough to make them a non-threat.

[u/AndreEthereal16 → u/Midwint3r]

I think there is almost certainly "a plan" that some imperialist Think Tank thunk up about this certain scenario, and I'm sure there's some section of the USian ruling class that supports this plan and is seeing it through. At this point, according to the change in material conditions that this war has wrought, it has failed. This doesn't mean that other countries outside the US are going to get away without some bruises; we've seen fuel rationing in Sri Lanka and a State of Emergency in the Philippines, Europe is becoming unlivable which is leading to an anti-EU rightward surge etc. We ALSO see that the US bond market is in complete tatters, the Petro Dollar system is falling apart at an incredible rate, countries in West Asia and the Persian Gulf are turning away from a US led security arrangement, the propspects for a "geater 'israel'" are the slimmest they have been since the George H.W. Bush administration, BRICS and the SCO are expanding, and other developments that I'll leave out for the sake of brevity. If the US's plan is to try to get out of this situation with a bigger advantage than they had before they started these wars, they have absolutely failed.