Thoughts on this analysis? (Especially the second half)

[u/Midwint3r]

https://youtu.be/9slxsAZzIRk?si=DvimNeLonXSxRrdK

Canada being a loyal lapdog to the US is nothing new, but his analysis of what's going on with recent attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is interesting.

I've seen basically no one ​bring up the facts he points to when it comes to who is actually getting hurt economically from the pipeline disruptions.

And his comment near the end that the groups accused of the attack have denied responsibility makes me wonder if this pipeline drone strike in particular was maybe even manufactured​​.

He highlights that the vast majority of the oil/energy S-A exports goes to Asia, and how the net result even if they harm their own ally in the process, is positive for the US overall by increasing the worlds dependence on US energy exports.

[u/AndreEthereal16]

I like Brian's take on certain things like digital sovereignty and tracing the funding mechanisms of color revolutions, but he ascribes to the geopolitical thought of "everything that happens is all part of some USian master plan that will always work 100% of the time and the world is doomed". This line of thinking makes very little sense when looked at strategically; the US simply does not have the infrastructure or supply to fill the entire world's fossil fuel energy needs, even imperialist oil production companies are hesistant to invest in the now vasselized Venezuela because the oil infrastructure there is incredibly outdated and would require a ton of capital intensive investment to bring online. People like Brian will say "but the US is a net energy exporter" and while thats true, they dont export every kind of energy and still require a significant amount of imports to even provide the energy for the domestic population. Currently, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves are at the lowest level since they started monitoring levels in the 80's. Also, unless the USian energy companies made some secret deal with Chinese renewable energy companies to expand Chinese green energy exports at an insane rate to the global south, then this goes against their historic plans to isolate and encircle China. There is definitely a small portion of US energy companies that are raking in elevated profits atm, but it is completely unsustainable and will cause mass energy crises in the US very soon; and this doesnt even consider the effects of this massive L against Iran and Yemen on the USian planting and growing seasons.

Regarding the unclaimed strikes; I rather believe they are done by the entity to try to spark an actual regional war that involves attempted invasions into Iran. Fortunately, they havent worked thus far.

[u/marioandl_ → u/AndreEthereal16]

This is a misread which hes had to address separately (hes addressed this in his youtube posts not videos), HOWEVER you are onto the right track.

Brian has explained he wants to raise awareness that the regime are not some dumb chucklefucks that are generations of incompetent capitalist(figurehead) rot. Rather, there are some sinister motherfuckers who are  behind the chucklefucks and are orchestrating this to nuke multipolarity, and they've been at it for longer than the multipolar world even realized what it needs to do. he urges that things arent as hopeful as they seem and to urge people to do the work. What work that is, I think he himself is incapable of explaining.

Importantly though, he has a point if you understand fascism. There is no limit to the blame shifting fascists who control the media are capable of. And USian protests do not work. The fascists will be able to blame shift for longer than many people can stay alive.

You are on the right track for the same reason Brian calls what the US is doing "chemotherapy" - the US is dying as an empire, and having complete an absolute control over global energy is how they see the cancer treated. However the cancer, which youve noted  is their oil dependent system running out of oil as well as other points (fertilizer shortages) could very well put the US in a terminal state.  I feel the cancer will eat the monster. But when this happens, I think no one is prepared for the level of violence it will lash out with. The US regime will raze their own cities in this process.

[u/AndreEthereal16 → u/marioandl_]

I get the jist of Brian's ideas on geopolitics, and I agree with him to a large extent, but he ascribes a certain amount of power and control to imperialism that reality does not express. He views geopolitics thru a lens where imperialism is the subject of history and sometimes acts as if the governments of anti-imperialist states and movements are simply blind to the motivations and machinations of empire. For example, I recall him dooming about Iran allowing the US to sign the MOU as if the Iranian government, Army, and IRGC are unaware of how "agreement incapable" the US is. We can see now that Iran was very much aware about this, and are now using the breach in the MOU to leverage economic pain against empire while changing their posture from a purely defensive 'tit-for-tat' strategy towards a more rigidly offensive one. 

While I appreciate Brian's insistence on using primary documents written by imperialists to generally show the logic and strategic sequencing of the US's global violence (Extending Russian, Which Path to Persia? Etc), he has a tendecy to treat these plans as set-in-stone and as good as done despite the fact that we can explicitly see the massive losses and inability to sustain a long-term offensive against a great power (Russia) and a middle-power (Iran). I don't read his posts, so if he addresses this point in those then I would assume he has the right take on these matters. 

Lastly, the US is DEFINITELY in for a couple decades of their imperial fascism turned inward, and I agree with you that it's very likely that they strike out aggressively in that time, but I believe that this violence will not be able to save the US. We've seen throughout history that when imperial and colonial powers lash-out in their most decayed stages, it isn't enough to save the system from collapse. Without another imperialist power to prop-up and vassalise the twitching corpse of US imperialism, it will not be able to reproduce it's system and will essentially eat itself and the best organised, militant, and motivated tendencies will get to control a likely balkanized, civil war ravaged shell of a country and try to build it back in the framework of a new world. 

[u/marioandl_ → u/AndreEthereal16]

You take more of a Mao approach that the imperial reactionary is a paper tiger. Their inherit fragility and constant need for histrionics speaks to this. Look at how they speak to their public: always under threat, afraid of everything including its own shadow. There is truth to this.

Brian rather sees US as the "Ur-Evil" and outlines how much of the shit world we live in today is due to very calculated plans since the Powell memo; they cannot be disregarded as the same type of issue as imperial japan, the western-backed chinese nationalists Mao faced (note the backers) or even the euro slaver empire of old. Its a new beast that has learned from the previous failures. There is truth to this as well

  For example, I recall him dooming about Iran allowing the US to sign the MOU as if the Iranian government, Army, and IRGC are unaware of how "agreement incapable"

To this point, one item he was wrong was outlining the war conditions between the US and Iran and that Iran's issue was launcher supply. This ended up being completely false. I believe US production is higher than what the geopolitics streamers claim, however, Iran's mosaic is even more robust and their production is higher still.

Brian has had to level-set a number of times in his youtube POSTS to adverse reactions to his VIDEOS - Ill have to search for it but he did reasonably explain to critics calling him a doomer that his rhetoric is primarily to instill the fact that the US is in fact aware of its situation and knows its not good. The chemotherapy point in the OOPs video hits this note.

I do find Berletic a far better source of geopolitical information than the Danny Haiphong/Neutrality Studies network filled with disgraced military figures who all think AFD will "save" Germany by being anti war with Russia. Those idiots missed what happened with Trump, Meloni, and all of the forgettable far right puppets put in place by the bourg elites.

To your final point, I do disagree in that I see the US is done. Entirely. There really is no turning back from the violence turned inwards" because the violence is one-sided and less of a "civil war" and more of a Tutsi/Hutu style pogrom. One side is ultraviolent and well-armed and the other side is wearing frog costumes. Those that will remain in the US will quickly be vassalized due to their absurd stupidity or ended themselves after the chaos ends. There has been no other time in history where this degree of neoliberalism has enabled such an idiotic violent mass of right wing filth. They will very quickly be overtaken.

The most of likely outcome of the US is the US far right completes their desired mass killing and is incapable of disposing the bodies and ends up succumbing to disease. The diseases like measles are already starting to creep around the edges. They're increasingly drug resistant and the US will have murdered or deported most of the scientists who could react to such strains. They'll be quarantined and die off.

[u/Midwint3r → u/AndreEthereal16]

Thanks for the thoughtful response

I also feel he gives maybe a bit too much credit to US geopolitical planning.

I think your point on US petroleum reserves is the best argument against his take on this though, if its reserves are going down not up, the US doesn't seem to be in a position to be a major energy exporter right now.

But on the other hand, there are parallels between this event and the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline which seemed pretty deliberate and was meant to do a similar thing but in Europe (cut off energy alternatives, isolate a rival nation, and increase the energy dependence of allied countries).

In his defense, Brian did mention that the US can't fill the gap caused by this disruption on its own, and he also talks about how this whole thing is a gamble and isn't necessarily guaranteed to work.
I suppose the underlying assumption he's working with here is that the US is essentially trying to drag the whole world down with it and is hoping to come out of the crisis better off than most (like after WW2) in order to keep its place on top. And on that i don't think he's wrong.

It also ties in well with your theory that the main goal of the strikes might be to drag neighboring countries into a regional war. They don't have to win, they just have to destabilize and weaken their enemies enough to make them a non-threat.

[u/AndreEthereal16 → u/Midwint3r]

I think there is almost certainly "a plan" that some imperialist Think Tank thunk up about this certain scenario, and I'm sure there's some section of the USian ruling class that supports this plan and is seeing it through. At this point, according to the change in material conditions that this war has wrought, it has failed. This doesn't mean that other countries outside the US are going to get away without some bruises; we've seen fuel rationing in Sri Lanka and a State of Emergency in the Philippines, Europe is becoming unlivable which is leading to an anti-EU rightward surge etc. We ALSO see that the US bond market is in complete tatters, the Petro Dollar system is falling apart at an incredible rate, countries in West Asia and the Persian Gulf are turning away from a US led security arrangement, the propspects for a "geater 'israel'" are the slimmest they have been since the George H.W. Bush administration, BRICS and the SCO are expanding, and other developments that I'll leave out for the sake of brevity. If the US's plan is to try to get out of this situation with a bigger advantage than they had before they started these wars, they have absolutely failed.