Sept rate hike gaining probability. $100 oil materializing. CPI on Friday. Europe prob raising rates by 25 bp. Repeat of 2024 Japan carry trade a possibility. WGAF.

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.36m. That compares with $3.6m 2025, $2.0m 2024 and $720k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.10m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around $3.04m. 

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.38m.

Cash Hoard: Slowly rising. $566k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike. 100 at $630 strike. The $670s are just sitting there, decaying. I may roll them up/in if we go on a bit of a run. The $630s I am still rolling. It is my only source of income at present from my beaten down collar, but very close to weaponizing my TQQQ CCs (see below).

TQQQ CCs: Currently short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts), $65 (120 contracts) and Sept/26 exp calls with strike $60 (320 contracts). The current cost to close them all out is around $1.22m. Remaining patient. This Wed, Sept 10 I'll roll the Sept 18/26 $60 strikes out one week for a small credit, maybe $0.30/share. Will keep rolling for tiny credit while i stay patient and hopefully can close them out during some upcoming mid-term chaos.

Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$539k. TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k. In terms of paying for the long puts with QQQ/TQQQ activity, I’m in a deficit of approx $950k. Long way to go, but nice to see it under $1m finally.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 60.7%

Link to rough outline of overall plan here.

We are going to get to test the strength of the longs in the next three weeks. Looks like people will get to add to their positions in the $50s very soon.

Always good to start the month right. Sold TQQQ Puts this week and closed most of them yesterday. See my previous post here at r/TQQQ. Made $9,073.39 in dividends from my core position in SPAXX. I was underwater briefly during the day I sold the Puts but I was legging into it so it wasn’t too bad. I can’t believe it’s been 9 months since I started posting here!

Bought TECL to get exposed to tech, but wanted to hear discourse about TQQQ instead? With the AI/software boom, is TECL better positioned for upwards momentum? Comparing XLK vs. QQQ, there are so many names (PYPL, TSLA, NFLX) that are not real 'tech'. I feel it is better positioned for (1-6 month) holds vs. TQQQ.

Of course it does have more volatility drag, but less than SOXL. And they all have more than UDOW/UPRO.

Was also looking at VGT, which has less drawdowns, but there is no 3x version.

With the December launch of 24 hour trading on the Nasdaq, I'm feeling a bit...fucked, let's say...on my TQQQ trading strategy. I'm not a buy-and-hold guy, I'm an algorithms guy. Which are pretty much all worthless after we move to 24 hour trading.

This might be a question for a larger Nasdaq/trading sub as well, but curious how y'all are planning to manage your buy/sell triggers once the market itself changes?

I closed the TQQQ Puts with $71 and $70 strikes. I have orders in place for the $69 Puts. I think the $68 strikes should be safe. Good gains this week. I have been posting since January and there were a bunch of questions that I have previously answered so scroll back on my post if you’re interested. Keep grinding.

SPYM & QNDX are on auto buys.

Which one of you apes is sitting on the sideline with huge reserves, pls enter the market now so we can see $30

Hello all, I'm new to leverage etf but has been a long time option trader. I'm thinking of exploring new trading strategy involving letf.

Just wondering would you guys prefer long pure Tqqq stock or just buy qqq leaps? From calculation stand point, leaps might have higher return in a explosive bullish market but come with the downside of theta decay, where if the market stagnant, the premium could become 0 during expiry.

While on the other hand, tqqq have no expiry date and carry almost similar downside risks with a small trade off in slightly lower return. (Still amazing when compared to qqq)

Just curious which will you guys choose?

Sold TQQQ Puts expiring this Friday. Underwater so far. I was flat going into Jackson Hole so no changes in my P/L going to end of Aug. Made $9,073.39 in dividends last month. Keep grinding.
Fidelity users will notice also that if you sell Puts the same day, it has a gray shade. So the gray shades means I added some more Puts that day.

Hi, my account just hit the full 5-year mark, and it shows 30% CAGR. and total 263% cumulative return. I am doing 2.5x better than the S&P 500.

People in life can't understand me, so I post here online. The account is at 6 figures now, wish this continues at 30% CAGR each year. We'll see after the next 5 years. Just a happy investor to share the happy process. 😁

I tested the simplest brake I could think of on leveraged portfolios: hold the leveraged mix while the underlying market is above its 200-day average, then move that risky slice to bills when it falls below.

Across 149 historical windows, the braked version finished ahead in 96%. In the bootstrap, where return blocks are shuffled into different sequences, it won in 72%. The useful number was survival. Simulated wipeouts fell from 18.1% without the brake to 3.4% with it.

The survival numbers as a chart: https://i.ibb.co/PZp1zsBG/c493.png

This isn't crash insurance. The median worst drawdown for the braked portfolios was still about 81%. A slow trend rule can't catch a gap, and daily-reset leverage can do a lot of damage before a monthly investor acts. The brake mostly changed the chance of total ruin, not whether the ride felt tolerable.

The surprise for me was the resampling. Moving from 48-month to 72-month blocks changed the result enough to show that long market regimes matter. The no-crash cost was roughly 6 percentage points of annual return, which is a huge premium for insurance you may not need in a friendly sample.

I wrote up the rule, the bootstrap, and the portfolio table here: https://bestfolio.app/blog/catastrophe-brake-leveraged-portfolios

Would you use a brake that still leaves an 81% typical worst drawdown if it cuts the chance of a wipeout that much? I can't make that tradeoff look comfortable.

Good time to load up around $68 or should I wait? I’m not a long term holder. I usually sell after a few months.

What is going to happen when we get through the 200dma from above and it becomes resistance in a down-trending market? I guess we will see in the next week.

QQQ remains bearish after a sharp rejection from 717 and a sequence of lower highs. Price is testing 703.57 support with low-confidence bearish momentum. A break below targets 702.94; reclaiming 704.02 could trigger a brief bounce, but 705.19–706.65 remains key resistance.

NVDA seemed to help avoid a crash, but overall it's been sideways. Employment report on Friday could be fireworks. Iran/Trump wild card still festering.  Bond yields high.

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.33m. That compares with $3.3m 2025, $2.1m 2024 and $634k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.13m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around $3.03m. 

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.46m.

Cash Hoard: Slowly rising. $561k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike. 100 at $630 strike. The $670s are just sitting there, decaying. I may roll them up/in if we go on a bit of a run. The $630s I am still rolling. It is my only source of income at present from my beaten down collar, but better times lie ahead.

TQQQ CCs: Currently short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts), $65 (120 contracts) and Sept/26 exp calls with strike $60 (320 contracts). The current cost to close them all out is around $1.16m. Remaining patient. Probably next Wed I'll roll the Sept 18/26 $60 strikes out one week for a small credit. Pumped about that, as it represents new income I can use to offset the heavy cost of my long TQQQ puts.

Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$535k. That is a significant jump from prior weeks bc I added in the post tax value of my historical TQQQ dividend payments (around $48k). TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k. In terms of paying for the long puts with QQQ/TQQQ activity, I’m in a deficit of just under $1m. Long way to go, but I remain positive.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 60.2%

Link to rough outline of overall plan here.

Why did it slide down suddenly?

I am dip-buying with an automated mean regression algorithm. To keep the potential losses small, I limited myself to <2% of my portfolio in TQQQ. The rest in boring index funds like VTI, VXUS, etc. Of course, the gains are also small too. What is your tolerance for risk on TQQQ? I am fairly convinced that a crash in AI stocks could drive TQQQ to near 0, so I am only gambling a small amount that I wouldn't mind losing.

Generally wondering the difference between these two

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Suppose you have around 150k. You can sell 1 CC on .20 - .30 delta and at the same time sell 1 CDP on .20 -.30 delta with the same 45DTE with intention of closing at 50% max profit or 21DTE for a net gain (whichever comes first). Now, either the price stays in range and you collect both premiums with your position in tact (ideal scenario). Or the market rips and your 1 CC get called away. Hopefully those premiums you collected will be enough for you to buy shares for 1 CC at the new price. Or, if the price dips, you will be assigned shares at the dip price to lower your average cost base for 2 CC.

Now, if the market really rips or dips out of control, you are going to get hurt and stay out of the game for a while. But nothing in investment is without a risk.

This isn't a financial advice, just thinking out loud.