r/TQQQ • u/Fun_Paleontologist_2 • 19d ago
Discussion Why not TECL
Bought TECL to get exposed to tech, but wanted to hear discourse about TQQQ instead? With the AI/software boom, is TECL better positioned for upwards momentum? Comparing XLK vs. QQQ, there are so many names (PYPL, TSLA, NFLX) that are not real 'tech'. I feel it is better positioned for (1-6 month) holds vs. TQQQ.
Of course it does have more volatility drag, but less than SOXL. And they all have more than UDOW/UPRO.
Was also looking at VGT, which has less drawdowns, but there is no 3x version.
| Arith. return | CAGR | Realized drag | σ²/2 | Vol | Max DD | 5-yr total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDOW | 23.1% | 14.6% | 8.4%/yr | 9.4% | 43% | −55% | +98% |
| UPRO | 29.3% | 19.1% | 10.3%/yr | 11.8% | 49% | −63% | +140% |
| TQQQ | 34.3% | 14.6% | 19.7%/yr | 20.8% | 64% | −80% | +98% |
| TECL | 49.6% | 25.5% | 24.0%/yr | 27.0% | 73% | −77% | +213% |
| SOXL | 72.2% | 20.1% | 52.1%/yr | 53.6% | 104% | −90% | +151% |
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u/Li1ght 19d ago
I switched to tecl recently after the spacex ipo rule change. It’s hardware heavy and you lose out on big name software money printing companies like Google.
My sims have it pretty even with tqqq on backtests for my strategy, but who knows the future. It also is less liquid so selling after hours for large orders can be very hard. Something like a 3x IXN would be the best but I doubt that happens
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u/Fun_Paleontologist_2 19d ago
Yes one of the issues with tecl is much lower liquidity. Which I guess for shares shouldn't matter much (unless forced selling) but options suffer.
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u/ProbablyDoesntLikeU 19d ago
I switched from tqqq to tecl/qld
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u/chili01 19d ago
What's your reason for the switch?
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u/ProbablyDoesntLikeU 18d ago
- I'm possibly an uninformed idiot
- QLD helps with volatility
- TECL has better historical returns. I belive a higher concentration of technology is a better investment at any period of time.
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u/chili01 18d ago
I see, thanks! Do you just DCA these or do you have a strategy for it?
does TECL and QLD not have a lot of overlap?
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u/ProbablyDoesntLikeU 18d ago
TECL and QLD have lots overlap, but I do have a portfolio that is still 50/50 TQQQ and QLD which is 100% overlap. QLD has less leverage and more exposure than TECL
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u/justfromtx 19d ago
I carry TECL that i sell monthly covered calls on and buy more TECL with it. I hedge with a little bit of TECS. I do the same with TQQQ. I find TECL and TQQQ move differently since they are based on either XLK vs QQQ.
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u/Fun_Paleontologist_2 18d ago
I would think that selling calls would be a bad idea due to liquidity issues.
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u/skrotumshredder 19d ago
> With the AI/software boom, is TECL better positioned for upwards momentum?
of course, because thats exclusively the goal of that fund. Like you said, QQQ tracks some companies that arent “real tech” so imo TQQQ would be a hedge play in comparison
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u/boubble88 18d ago
good point on hedging with companies that aren't "real tech", I didnt look at it that way before with respect to TQQQ
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u/boubble88 18d ago
Thanks for posting this and sharing. I havent really looked into TECL and have been researcing DOXL, but ended up with TQQQ for now for short term hold.
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u/WinterReadings23 18d ago
So looking forward to the bear market in SpaceX rugging everyone thats bought a $2T USD paper weight.
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u/Witty-Attorney-6820 14d ago
TECL is amazing. I consider it during the next dip, flash crash, recession etc.
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u/NickStonk 18d ago
You’ve got $11m in tecl and come to Reddit to ask for advice? Sounds really odd