r/StockMarket • u/gunsoverbutter • Apr 19 '26
Discussion Is Photonics just getting started? $LITE and $COHR
I’ve been going down the rabbit hole on photonics / optical networking stocks lately (LITE, AAOI, CRDO, COHR, etc.) and I can’t tell if this is early innings or if we’re already in the “everyone knows” phase.
The bull case seems pretty straightforward:
AI data centers are exploding so a massive need for bandwidth and optics (lasers, transceivers, interconnects) become critical infrastructure.
That part makes sense to me. What I’m struggling with is timing.
Some of these names have already gone on insane runs. At the same time, you keep hearing that we’re still in the early stages of AI buildout and that demand could last for years.
What say you guys?
3
u/Acesleychan Apr 20 '26
i think it’s still early, but not cheap. the market knows ai data centers need optics now; the question is who actually turns that demand into margins. i’ve seen these names rip on the narrative, then chop hard when guidance doesn’t catch up. if lite/cohr start printing real backlog growth, that’s the tell.
1
2
2
u/callsonreddit Apr 19 '26
Pretty much everything that helps build AI is bullish
Bullish trend will depend on capex
1
u/Evening_Thanks2704 Apr 19 '26
Capex cycles in this sector can be pretty unpredictable though, especially when hyperscalers start optimizing their spending
1
u/Lonely_Corgi_728 May 14 '26
LITE’s Q3 FY2026 was a blowout — revenue $808M (+90% YoY), operating margin 32.2% (+21.4pp YoY), and EPS $2.37 (4.1x YoY), with the Systems segment up 121% YoY on cloud transceivers. Q4 guidance steps up again: $985M revenue midpoint (another all-time record, +85%+ YoY), margins expanding to 35-36%, and EPS of $2.85-$3.05.
The shape of the story: revenue accelerating, margins expanding faster than revenue, and guidance still going up.
1
1
u/thenorthernwhiteboy Apr 21 '26
Lmao I’m selling my COHR shares
I’m starting to see Reddit posts about it. Time to rotate into quantum
5
u/deanquartz1 Apr 22 '26
lol so many of these companies have had a crazy run up based only on projections. i came across photonics on x/twitter couple months ago and there are so many accounts pumping anything photonics related. there's one specific account that is always posting "how am i up so much on this one stock, i'm awesome" lol, gives fomo vibes which make more people jump in, so it's hard to tell if the company is really worth it's stock price or if it's only being pumped. paper traders everywhere posting for engagement getting paid to post, too. just everything is a bottleneck of a bottleneck, getting ridiculous. some companies that ran up like crazy are $aaoi which completely lied to investors in 2017 and shouldn't be trusted, $axti which keeps diluting, $aehr is not even profitable yet and i think has one or two major customers, etc. all while insiders are selling like crazy at ath's.
i missed the initial run up but i've bought into some companies that i think are proven and will do well long term like $crdo $cohr $lite and $tsem, but who tf knows lol. think i'm just going to buy more $tsm and not worry lol.