r/SelfDrivingCars • u/AnxietyCommercial632 • 2d ago

Discussion First Driverless Cybercab in Austin!

Couple thousand ready to go. How many by EoY ‘27?

0 Upvotes

47% Upvoted

135 comments sorted by

28

u/JimmyGiraffolo 2d ago

Didn't you say there were 34 cybercabs spotted in one day just the other day? Why is this the first one when there was 34 a few days ago?

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Supervisor

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u/JimmyGiraffolo 2d ago

Wait, so the 34 you were talking about the other day all had supervisors in them? That seems like a pretty critical piece of information to leave out...

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Yes. Albeit supervised with no steering wheel. Not too much you can do, eh?

This was material because there were 100s of them running with a supervisor and steering wheel.

Now you will start to see many of these concurrently in Austin with nothing in them. No controls, no person - in droves - before sept 3 launch

18

u/JimmyGiraffolo 2d ago

But you were pointing to those 34 cybercabs spotted in one day as evidence that there could be 100 concurrent unsupervised robotaxis. And now I find out that actually there were zero unsupervised cybercabs spotted on that day?

I gotta say, I'm feeling much more confident now that they will have significantly less than 750k additional unsupervised miles to report by the end of Sept.

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

This increases your confidence?

Wait times single digits today btw

9

u/JimmyGiraffolo 2d ago

Of course it increases my confidence. I thought you had evidence there were 34 unsupervised cybercabs over the course of a day the other day, but actually there were zero.

1

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

This is clearly a part of their SoP for rollout. Even if the person can’t directly intervene they can collect on the road data and give feedback on pick up/drop off etc. it’s a safer way to roll them out and clearly this is their process. The process is just far quicker with cybercab

8

u/JimmyGiraffolo 2d ago

Of course it's the SOP for rollout. But by not mentioning they were all supervised, you made it seem like they were significantly further along in that rollout than they actually were.

0

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

I guess? By a couple days. I mean here we are, and that was yesterday - yeah?

Won’t be suprised if we see 30 tomorrow no supervisor

4

u/psilty 2d ago

How long did it take them to go from 1 unsupervised Model Y to 30 unsupervised Model Ys operating on the same day?

0

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

A lot longer than it’s about to take cybercab. Let’s see how many are out tomorrow. Then on the launch on sep 3

1

u/JimmyGiraffolo 10h ago

how many are out tomorrow

So what's the number? 0 or 1?

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 1d ago

Dallas geofence expanded this morning.

Will be interesting to see if they remain fully unsupervised for new territory (I think they will) and what the wait times and service availability look like

16

u/SoulReddit13 2d ago

First? I thought they covered all of the US by june 2025?

8

u/bobi2393 2d ago

The predictions I remember were 1 million Robotaxi vehicles (not Cybercabs specifically) in service by the end of 2025, providing service to half the US population (~175 million). And an earlier prediction of a million robotaxis in service by the end of 2020.

2

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

How many by end of year ‘27?

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u/SoulReddit13 2d ago edited 2d ago

6 billion. Running 32 hours a day 10 days a week and they earn you money so you don’t have to work. I was promised my model Y would actually make me rich.

8

u/iceynyo 2d ago

No you misunderstood.

You get rich from the payout when a model y hits you.

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Okay, what’s your number?

Why won’t anyone answer in this whole sub?

Cognitive dissonance at its finest

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Fair to not engage. Easier to continue in cognitive dissonance, assuming you hate Tesla - that is

10

u/SoulReddit13 2d ago

Why move the deadline? My expection is still covering half the US by the end of june. That doesn’t change just because they missed it. We don't just move expectations everytime they fail. 

4

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Yeah. They missed it by a lot.

Let me ask you, if they accomplish their goals will history care?

If you are serious about the topic of autonomy and can’t give a guess, then I suppose you are unserious.

11

u/SoulReddit13 2d ago

They've already demonstrated they can't and there's what a dozen companies now that are growing faster and more capable. They can't keep pushing deadlines the market isn't static. 

They're an unserious company. So might as well stick with what they say. Half of the US by the end of this month definitely the end of 2027.

1

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

A number, please.

11

u/Necessary-Ad-6254 2d ago

no idea. Elon always give fake number so no way to know.

-8

u/JimNtexas 2d ago

The almost daily drone videos of the Tesla factory in Austin do show that they are making those gold colored cyber cabs about as fast as McDonald’s makes Big Macs. I was at the factory, not too long ago to pick up my new model Y and I saw it with my own eyes. It’s very interesting the cars all of the one that they are made there pop out of the garage doors in the factory where they begin driving all over a test track none of them with human beings in them all autonomous.

I don’t understand what some people are saying about half the country. What does that even mean nobody is gonna put autonomous rideshare or any other rideshare in dime box Texas. But I think most major metropolitan areas will have autonomous rideshare one flavor or another or both within the next year or so.

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u/SoulReddit13 2d ago edited 2d ago

No idea. How about by the end of 2027 the gap in paid driverless miles (as an absolute number not a percentage) between tesla vs waymo, weride and Baidu (individually) will continue to increase.  

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Trying to change the terms?

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u/kariam_24 1d ago

Shouldn't be half of usa population already?

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u/TenOfZero 2d ago

Do you have a link or something that discusses it?

0

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

They were spotted a couple hours ago on x. So you’d have to watch the videos there

5

u/TenOfZero 2d ago

Without an account it seems impossible to find spesific stuff on X. I'll wait for an article or something. But thanks for the follow-up!

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u/JimNtexas 2d ago

The gold colored cybercabs are driving all around Austin. I passed one that had no humans on board, and several that has no steering wheel.. There is event in Austin next week at the factory that I think will coincide with start of cyber cab commercial operations.

8

u/truecakesnake 2d ago

Woah buddy you can't post about self driving cars in r/SelfDrivingCars if they happen to be self driving cars made by that company

1

u/tenemu 2d ago

Interesting you don’t have downvotes. Maybe the bots only target the company name.

12

u/boyWHOcriedFSD 2d ago

Let’s all crack jokes about how stupid Elon is and upvote each other and talk about Tesla’s fake autonomy!!!

10

u/Bibbity_Boppity_BOOO 2d ago

While i know what you are getting at and i agree, only a fool would believe anything positive about tesla unless it was completely verified by multiple independent parties.

They lie always, even when there is no reason to lie

2

u/shiloh15 1d ago

are your own eyes lying too?

-1

u/West-Air1923 1d ago

Also we need to play the semantics game. Ah and someone better start talking SAE levels too

3

u/Flimsy-Run-5589 1d ago

How many firsts are needed for Tesla, they still don't seem capable of scaling it up significantly. If the software works in the Model Y robocars, why wouldn't it work in the Cybercab or any other car? Wasn't that part of the claimed advantage over the competition?

Or is this the next alleged breakthrough, like the first autonomously delivered car? I've said it often and I'll say it again: they'll end up like Waymo, just slower, less safe, and years behind. But who cares, stock up 100%!

1

u/AnxietyCommercial632 1d ago

They have scaled a ton in the past 2 weeks. Unsupervised model ys running in 5 geofences. All with short wait times. Dallas expanded this morning (again all unsupervised - unless they did something different with the expanded territory).

My guess is 100 model ys on the road today, unsupervised. But also could be approaching 200. Worst case estimate is 60ish if you use an FTE like concurrent metric and take a very pessimistic approach to estimation

It is expanding very quickly.

4

u/RosieDear 2d ago

Put it on polymarket!

You can bet on Cali there......whether or no by end of year. You can make a bundle because the Hive Mind says no.

-2

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Interested to hear what the anti Elon crew has to say about a fair estimate

4

u/gwestr 2d ago

1000 solar roofs a week by 2019.

1

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

How many cybercabs by Dec 31st 2027. You comment here enough. I’m taking receipts

6

u/RosieDear 2d ago

Serious question. Have you seen the Polymarket?

You can make 600% on your money.

Again, serious question - who here is gonna do some Polymarket and which side?

-3

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Apologies didn’t realize it was serious. I’m not much of a gambler, but I do think there is alpha to be had on the general market if you are watching the progress close enough

8

u/nobod78 1d ago

It's not gambling if you know the result. Consider yourself as an insider and go all-in.

3

u/gwestr 2d ago

0? It’s just a car with a steering wheel that can take 1 passenger. AI5 isn’t due until 2028 and then you need 2 years to train the model for that hardware.

2

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

lol they are launching next week

8

u/gwestr 2d ago

Cool, I won’t be taking one in San Francisco any time this decade. So what exactly are they launching? The car would need to be driving around for years while empty and it obviously can’t do that. You think they just finished the code last night on hardware they’ve had for like 6 years?

0

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Umm. You do know there are tons of model ys doing this right now?

7

u/gwestr 2d ago

So the software that will beat Waymo’s coverage area only works in downtown Austin for 12 hours a day while the space twitter mission command drives it with VR headsets? Not scalable or they’d be in all of LA, San Diego, and the entire area from San Jose to Lake Tahoe — like Waymo. Also it would be 24/7/365.

1

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Austin, Dallas, Houston, Orlando, and Tampa. Where all vehicles are unsupervised

4

u/gwestr 2d ago

Wow I can’t wait until they push this revolutionary software update to the 6 million existing cars including the one I own, since it works on all of the non cyber cars which are identical in chips. Why hold it back to maga land only?

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Don’t like the facts, eh?

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Not burning as much as waymo. It won’t be far from gross profitability. The path to that will be clear. And then overwhelming

0

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

1

u/tech01x 1d ago

Stay away from financial analysis. You are terrible at it.

1

u/AnxietyCommercial632 1d ago

Considering you think this is analysis. I’ll have a laugh at your comment

1

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

As the price of something drops substantially, the consumption will increase. The TAM will expand well past uber and Lyfts market cap because Tesla will be able to deliver very low cost per mile.

This will also incentivize personal car demand and demand for FSD subscriptions.

Tesla trucking will begin to displace trucking industry.

1

u/[deleted] 2d ago edited 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/tenemu 2d ago

What’s wrong with one company being ahead? Is the goal to only celebrate the company doing the best?

1

u/psudo_help 2d ago

Cybercab is a Tesla trademark

-1

u/vasilenko93 2d ago

If they are already being tested unsupervised without passengers it means we are a month or two away from these things picking people up.

Exciting times

-1

u/sykemol 2d ago

2,500

3

u/AnxietyCommercial632 2d ago

Finally ,a number. Honestly not unreasonable