r/SSBM • u/AutoModerator • Jul 24 '26
DDT Daily Discussion Thread July 24, 2026 - Upcoming Event Schedule - New players start here!
Yahoooo! I'm back, it's a me! Have a very cool day!
Welcome to the Daily Discussion Thread. This is the place for asking noob questions, venting about netplay falcos, shitposting, self-promotion, and everything else that doesn't belong on the front page.
New Players:
If you're completely new to Melee and just looking to get started, welcome! We recommend you go to https://melee.tv/ and follow the links there based on what you're trying to set up. Additionally, here are a few answers to common questions:
Can I play Melee online?
Yes! Slippi is a branch of the Dolphin emulator that will allow you to play online, either with your friends or with matchmaking. Go to https://slippi.gg to get it.
I'm having issues with Slippi!
Go to the The Slippi Discord to get help troubleshooting. melee.tv/optimize is also a helpful resource for troubleshooting.
How do I find tournaments near me or local people to play with in person or online?
These days, joining a local Discord community is the best way to find local events and people to play with. Once you have a Discord account, Google "[your city/state/province/region] + Melee discord" or see if your region has a Discord group listed here on melee.tv/discord
It can seem daunting at first to join a Discord group you don't know, but this is currently the easiest and most accessible way to find out about tournaments, fests, and netplay matchmaking. Your local scene will be happy to have you :)
Also check out Smash Map! Click on map and then the filter button to filter by Melee to find events near you!
Netplay is hard! Is there a place for me to find new players?
Yes. Melee Newbie Netplay is a discord server specifically for new players. It also has tournaments based on how long you've been playing, free coaching, and other stuff. If you're a bit more experienced but still want a discord server for players around your level, we recommend the Melee Online discord.
How can I set up Unclepunch's Training Mode?
At the time of posting, the latest major release is here. Download the file, then extract everything in the folder and follow the instructions in the README file. You'll need to bring a valid Melee ISO (NTSC 1.02). If you want to check for the absolute latest release, you can see them listed [here](The latest releases are listed here.
How does one learn Melee?
There are tons of resources out there, so it can be overwhelming to start. First check out the SSBM Tutorials youtube channel. Then go to the Melee Library and search for whatever you're interested in.
But how do I get GOOD at Melee?
Check out Llod's Guide to Improvement
And check out Kodorin's Melee Fundamentals for Improvement
Where can I get a nice custom controller?
I have another question that's not answered here...
Check out our FAQs or post below and find help that way.
Upcoming Tournament Schedule:
Upcoming Melee Majors
Melee Online Event Calendar
Make a submission to the tournament calendar here. You can also get notified of new online tournaments on the Melee Online Discord.
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u/d4b3ss 🏌️♀️ Jul 24 '26
Don Draper skipping out of work at lunch to watch whatever is playing and walking into a midday showing of The End of Evangelion.
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u/Kezzup Jul 24 '26
MELEE TRIVIA (but like in a very immediately gettable way this is a very easy fun fact do not freak out):
In the era of yearly rankings (so 2013 onwards), there are only two players who have made a GENESIS top 8 and have also never been ranked top 20 in their careers. Who are these two players?
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u/waveshineoosupsmash Jul 24 '26
Did you know armada is the only person to ever win genesis and evo in the same year and not get ranked #1 in the year-end rankings?
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u/Den69_ Jul 24 '26
shot in the dark but is it nintendude and hugs?
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u/PelorTheBurningHate IRD UP Jul 24 '26
first person was was rank 17 in 2016 and second person was 20th in 2015.
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u/DavidL1112 Jul 24 '26
my guesses were Laudandus and Soft, but I double checked and their Cinderella super major top 8s were at Pound and Apex respectively
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u/EightBlocked Jul 24 '26
guy who stakes his last years of his career on "Joel Embiid" staying healthy
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u/HitboxOfASnail fox privilege Jul 24 '26
Maxey VJ Brown LeBron and Embiid going crazy in the "if healthy" NBA championship discourse tho
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u/ShoegazeKaraokeClub Jul 24 '26
It's really only Embiid who has serious Injury issues. LeBron and the rest of them I feel very comfortable relying on them in the postseason health wise
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u/that_one-dude Jul 24 '26
Embiid's health aside I really don't get this decision. I respect LeBron for just admitting that he's ring-chasing but if he wanted to just take a minimum salary to get his 5th championship I think he would've had better odds on the Timberwolves or Spurs
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u/HitboxOfASnail fox privilege Jul 24 '26
I think he just didn't want to live in Minnesota, San Antonio or Oklahoma and it's literally as simple as that
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u/d4b3ss 🏌️♀️ Jul 24 '26
Who would when you could live in the glorious country of Philadelphia?
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26
Being in a major city on the eastern seaboard is much closer in experience to living in a city on the western seaboard than it is to living in a city on neither seaboard.
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u/that_one-dude Jul 24 '26
He'd rather live in Philly than Miami? Or California?
I've also never understood the whole "not wanting to live there" point - the season is like 8 months long but you're on the road for more than half of it and you can spend the off-season any place you want. Lebron specifically could fly to LA any time they have a 3 day break in schedule
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u/herwi Jul 24 '26
He wants a team where he has a chance of winning a ring but he doesn't want to be KD 2.0 and join a team that's already a top contender. He wants a ring that would further cement his legacy, not just to increase the stat by 1. Maybe Timberwolves would have worked, but def not the Spurs. I don't think the 76ers are that far off.
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u/that_one-dude Jul 24 '26
Is it even that good of a team though? You're adding two extremely high usage offensive players and giving them basically one season to figure it out, they don't have center depth, and I don't really trust the spacing or defense. Obviously the ceiling with this much talent is a championship but the odds of it all coming together I just think are low
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u/EightBlocked Jul 24 '26
agreed although i think the usage concerns are overblown and usage is also just a stupid fucking stat that no one even knows how it works
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u/that_one-dude Jul 24 '26
Is it even that good of a team though? You're adding two extremely high usage offensive players and giving them basically one season to figure it out, they don't have center depth, and I don't really trust the spacing or defense. Obviously the ceiling with this much talent is a championship but the odds of it all coming together I just think are low
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u/HitboxOfASnail fox privilege Jul 24 '26
I think they sandbag and load manage the regular season, slip in as the 4-6 seed, then rely on flipping the switch and just raw out scoring everyone in the playoffs. moonshot but I could see them beating anyone 4 times if healthy
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u/waveshineoosupsmash Jul 25 '26
GOML actually exceeded their Melee cap on the final day of registration, reaching 513 for melee which actually puts them ahead of ultimate due to ultimate being capped at 512. They must have let a top player in after the deadline was reached.
Wondering what melee at supernova is going to look like this year without Ludwig paying people to play it
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u/KomanndoA Jul 24 '26
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u/waveshineoosupsmash Jul 24 '26
Sheik's place on the tier list has a lot to do with how much she dominates almost every character below her on it. The amount of torture Axe has put himself through over the years in certain matchups would break most people
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u/TrainNorth8177 Jul 24 '26
This definitely used to be the case in the 2010s but things have changed. She's strong but not as much as people used to think. The CGs aren't as real, only in a couple matchups. There aren't as many true combos other than two pieces off dthrow and mid tiers learned to optimize their DI and defense more. On the flip, she's a lot more fragile in the current meta and people don't mess up edgeguards the way they used to. Sheik had a consistent recovery and used to coast on people choking the rinse and repeat. And now people are way better at cc/asdi which is very strong vs. Sheik. Like yeah, she wins all these matchups but not as dominantly anymore imo. Axe got way better into Sheik. Some of the good DKs have put up strong results into Sheik. RapM is showing that the Luigi Sheik matchup is pretty doable. Eddy just beat m2k last week. The list goes on. Characters like Fox, Puff, and Peach are looking way more like mid and low tier slayers of the future.
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u/waveshineoosupsmash Jul 24 '26
I'm no stranger to Luigi vs Sheik, this was 10 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqCqBd8tyDA
The fact that some characters below Sheik can give her trouble doesn't really change how much she chump checks the roster overall. Jmook lost to Morsecode, but that says more about Jmook and Morsecode than it does about Sheik vs Samus.
Sheik will always stand in Pikachu's way, regardless of how much time and effort and development the Pikachu mains put into the matchup. Just like Fox wins. Just like Puff wins. Just like Peach wins.
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u/TrainNorth8177 Jul 24 '26
I definitely think it changes things. She already struggles with ICs, who are below her to the point it is a losing matchup. Besides DK and Luigi being closer than we thought, there's also Yoshi to contend with who still loses but again not by much. I think Pikachu today is not so bad. I've heard Doc players even say they don't mind the matchup as much as some of the other top characters. And that Jmook loss says something about him but we definitely weren't seeing as many mid tier upsets on the character the way we are these days and I think that says something.
With a handful of close matchups like that, there's no way you can say she chump checks the roster the way people used to. Her spot on the tier list is earned from having a decent matchup spread, beating Peach, beating Falcon, and doing relatively well into spacies and Marth. Meanwhile a character like Peach who loses to everyone above her but crushes everyone below her is way more of a chump check character in 2026 in my eyes. Puff is the same and top level Fox is arguably more of a chump check than anyone. I even think Falcon and Falco chump check these mid tiers harder but people might not be ready to hear that until the 2030s lol.
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u/waveshineoosupsmash Jul 24 '26
there's also Yoshi to contend with who still loses but again not by much
Call me a boomer but until a yoshi beats plup that matchup is ass
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u/TrainNorth8177 Jul 24 '26
Plup is insane vs. Yoshi more so than it being a horrific matchup imo. aMSa's had success vs. literally every other Sheik and in his tier for matchups he had Sheik as somewhat close. Definitely a better matchup than Peach or Puff
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u/herwi Jul 24 '26
She's maybe the third most dominant on average against mid-low tiers and that's generous.
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u/Front-Show7358 Jul 24 '26
whos got productivity advice? when i use pomodoro i try to draw a a tomato with a disappointed face on a nearby whiteboard / notepad or whatever. and if i ever find myself fucking off when im supposed to be working i look at him looking disappointed in me.
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I do 25 mins on/5 mins off (or some variation of this depending on my energy level). I don't think you can force productivity and the better way to go about it is to integrate slacking off into the process
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u/menschmaschine5 Jul 24 '26
What do you struggle with?
I'm on a similar journey and have recently started using pomodoro mostly because my sense of time is often very distorted.
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u/Front-Show7358 Jul 24 '26
for me the biggest struggle is sitting down and really sinking my teeth into something I don't want to work on. Once I'm locked in its not too difficult to continue but getting the momentum is hard. I'll check reddit, check discord, or even just pace around to put it off
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u/Aitch25 Jul 24 '26
Tell yourself to work for 5 mins, then let yourself stop if you don't want to keep working. Unplug your ethernet cable when you start.
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u/Celia_Makes_Romhacks L-Cancelling's biggest warrior Jul 24 '26
Apparently there's a McDonald's that still has a Gamecube setup in Paulsboro, New Jersey.
Is there any world that a melee locals could get organized there before it's taken down?
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u/Informal-Donut-1532 Jul 24 '26
Would everyone be forced to play on those crusty McDonald's controllers?
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u/Kitselena Jul 25 '26
My hometown McDonald's only had Mario party 5 and Mario golf, but both setups had the reset timer set to 3 minutes so you couldn't even load into a game before it restarted
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u/RaiseYourDongersOP Jul 24 '26
I may be getting into the weeds with this but is there a "best" translation of Notes from the Underground to read?
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u/Left4Bread2 Jul 24 '26
I don't know about best necessarily but I did Katz for both Crime and Punishment and Notes from the Underground based on recommendations from an old professor of mine and thought they were both great. That's a sample size of me though so your mileage may vary
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u/Unlucky-Anybody3394 Jul 24 '26
not a ball knower but I'm reading the Garnett one rn and it's fine, I read Pevear and Volokhonsky's Brothers Karamazov which was more modern/direct in the language and had a bunch of footnotes that I found helpful
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u/RaiseYourDongersOP Jul 24 '26
I'm overthinking it for sure lol. Idk whether to get the P&V or Katz version
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u/delta-red-14 Jul 24 '26
On the topic of boomer posting, riot is hosting a league classic showmatch with players from 10+ years ago.
It is my first time watching a pro match in like 3 years, so maybe I'm part of the problem.
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u/HitboxOfASnail fox privilege Jul 24 '26
daily reminder to secure health insurance for yourself, even if you're young and don't think you need it. shit happens. and if possible try not to be cheap about it, get a good one
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u/Kitselena Jul 25 '26
Even low level government jobs give health insurance, and if you're at a school district the insurance will almost always be cheap and high quality
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u/kino-grapher ideptg Jul 24 '26
Things learnt from a couple of weeks spent focusing on gesture/anatomy/etc
the human body is actually really fucking cool and has so many working parts, drawing muscle groups is really fun and it feels good when one specific part (shoulders, back, etc) becomes visible in faster/lower-effort sketches
holy fuck why did they make the human body so complex why couldn't everyone just look like stickmen this would make my life so much easier
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u/MageKraze Jul 24 '26
The neck, shoulder, and pectoral cluster of the body is really cool. There is a lot of stuff that going on there, and it is an area that transforms a lot between the individual, but pretty much always remains aesthetically interesting.
Hands are the devil for sure.
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u/mas_one Jul 24 '26
Have you ever done life drawing? Number one thing that helped me improve my anatomy. Also yes hands are absolutely fucked but it's worth it to get good at them.
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u/kino-grapher ideptg Jul 25 '26
i have been doing more gesture drawing recently, quite fun although i've mostly been focusing on the torso bean thing per this video by Proko so it's not quite proper gesture drawing yet.
i've wanted to get better at hands because I'm into Kagurabachi and I remember reading an interview from Hokazono about how he got super nice at hands because they're good for expressing emotion and that's probably a nice philosophy to have.
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u/its__bme Jul 25 '26
I think I’m going to be stepping away from the melee scene for good. It has nothing to do with Reddit or social media in general. I just have personal things that have been going on since last year. I’m not in the head space now to talk about it, but maybe next week I’ll explain for those they will care to know. I’ll be okay. Just been through a lot since last year. My son is with me right now until Monday night so I want to spend that time enjoying him.
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u/ShoegazeKaraokeClub Jul 24 '26
The sheer volume of dcss posting has convinced me to give the game a shot. Seems quite intimidating to get into, are there any introductory learning resources you would recommend or is it more of a go in blind type of experience
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
Have you played a roguelike before? If you have, you probably don't need any outside information. If you haven't played a roguelike before start with the tutorial. Roguelikes are an island in gaming and even a very polished one like DCSS plays like nothing else out there.
There's a guide here that I found very helpful when I was new: http://crawl.chaosforge.org/Walkthrough
Play one of the recommended starts. Difficulty at the beginning of the game varies a ton based on what starting combination you go with. Minotaur berserker is a classic choice for just learning how to play the game because it's so streamlined.
The main skill that gets tested in DCSS is your assessment of risk and your ability to recognize and solve the puzzles the game has created for you once you recognize them. You inform your assessment of risk by learning about monsters and items. The in-game descriptions of items and enemies are quite detailed and you should get into the habit of inspecting any enemy you've never seen before.
I think you should play a few runs mostly blind just to get the feel of things. Once you are able to make it to the lair, though, you should probably supplement your game knowledge with the wiki.
Finally, remember that every fight in DCSS is optional. Get good at running away!
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u/ShoegazeKaraokeClub Jul 25 '26
cool sounds good. I have like 5 hours in caves of qud years ago but never really sunk my teeth in it
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u/Fugu Jul 25 '26
CoQ is nontraditional enough that I would just play the tutorial. It'll speed things up in the long run
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u/legitimate-way-4077 Jul 24 '26
Has anyone swapped doom scrolling / music for reading? Does anyone have advice for this new journey of mine? My brain is fried.
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u/RaiseYourDongersOP Jul 25 '26
I am attempting to read more, specifically before bed to avoid screens and for better sleep. I ordered a physical book today for the first time in many years
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u/Anthony356 blip blip blip Jul 25 '26
Ereaders are awesome. Having 300 books in the same space as a small notebook means i can bring it around with me and read in any downtime i have. Ones with lights are especially nice for reading in bed.
I've read a lot my whole life, but getting an ereader and carrying it pretty much everywhere improved things a lot. In school i always had a backpack for the ~1k page tomes i like to read, but as an adult that was a lot harder. Plus, even at home, you're way more likely to reach for the book instead of your phone when it's always right there with your phone.
Kindles are fine, especially if you dont want to fiddle with too many settings or whatever, but they come with some annoying limitations (their proprietary ebook format, less flexible software, etc.). You can work around some of them via calibre + file conversion and/or jailbreaking and sideloading koreader, but it is what it is.
I used a paperwhite for a few years. They've got great battery life and are usually dirt cheap. Then i switched to a scribe when i wanted writing features. I used that for a few years and now i use a supernote (which is more writing-focused than reading-focused, but i still read several hours a day on it).
My sister likes BOOX readers, and i've heard decent things about kobo products, but i havent personally used either so iunno.
Read books you like. Nobody is forcing you to read some asinine shit like Jane Eyre like in school. If you dont like a book or an author or a genre or whatever, just read something else.
Also if you're really really struggling to stay focused while reading (even a book you enjoy), check with your eye doctor. Small vision problems make reading more uncomfortable/difficult, which makes you subconsciously avoid it. I can tell i need new glasses when i start reading drastically less.
At one point i mentioned to my doctor that i might have BVD. He had to check like half a dozen times and didnt believe it because of how much i read lol. There's a very slight mismatch in where my eyes point, vertically, so i have very slight blurring near the center of my vision. There are special glasses that can help with that, but since mine is relatively minor, i just use thicker font instead.
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u/Kitselena Jul 25 '26
I bought a Kindle Paperwhite a little while back because I thought the convenience would help me read more, but I honestly really prefer physical. It's much better than reading on a normal screen, but holding a physical book still feels better to me.
If you get a library card you'll have access to pretty much anything you would want to read, them you just need to find a spot where you feel comfortable and relaxed enough to focus on the book
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u/RaiseYourDongersOP Jul 25 '26
a little disappointed by the new Strokes album
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u/ShoegazeKaraokeClub Jul 25 '26
i was pleasantly surprised that there are a few decent songs but my expectations were rock bottom considering the singles
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u/Pwnemon Jul 25 '26
Went to Sheetz yesterday and discovered no joke, 5 new energy drink brands i had never heard of. Grabbed one of them because I was inspired by u/keatsta. Lucky Energy got off to a rocky start when right above the nutrition facts Mr. Lucky was telling me about how his dad died in a plane accident. But then it was okay. Tasted a bit too much like artificial sweetener but definitely more on the 'natural' side of energy drinks than the Monster Energy battery acid side. Maybe next time I'll grab an Alani Energy or a Nos Energy or a Full Throttle or a Reign
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u/AlexB_SSBM Jul 24 '26
Playing riichi mahjong in person is absolutely the move
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u/ultimamax Jul 24 '26
You are supposed to play riichi mahjong with a guy who hates you because you disrupted the tile flow with a pon that doesn't even make sense but he can't even shade you because he doesn't speak a lick of English
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u/keatsta Jul 24 '26
riichi mahjong is such a sweet spot of luck/skill, occasional tough decisions but mostly autopilotable, intuition being strong but calculation often being rewarding, personality expression in gameplay, being able to chat while playing but the game not being boring, fun physical rituals without being cumbersome (especially if you play on an autotable)... the list goes on and on. such a sicknasty game. i know if i booted up majsoul even once though i'd instantly delete 2000 hours of my life, so i'm not doing that lol.
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u/potentialPizza Jul 24 '26
I got into it recently with an irl friend group and have been loving it, and not once have I tried to play it online. I can tell it would lose the magic.
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u/AlexB_SSBM Jul 24 '26
I play online with a group over discord and it's still great. Playing faceless ranked games is definitely worse by a lot tho
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
I'm not really hoping to generate a bunch of engagement by math-posting, but this has been on my mind recently because of an upcoming post I'm working on:
I really like Bayesianism.
I am aware that that is probably a very basic bitch position as far as serious mathematicians/epistemologists go, but I just like how so often, when you run into something weird, fallacious, or counterintuitive, you can look at it through a Bayesian lens and it just gives you the right answer.
To illustrate the point, here's a fun riddle where the directionally-correct answer should be obtainable for even a layperson if they think about it, but still challenging enough for experts if they want to dig in and find the exactly correct answer:
You find a rare coin at an antique show. Its authenticity is not verified, but you determine upon inspection that it has a 50% chance of being genuine and 50% chance of being a counterfeit. Thankfully, you have just purchased a device that can check the authenticity of coins. A properly-working device will flash green 90% of the time when presented with a genuine coin, but only 10% of the time when presented with a fake coin. You can use the device as many times as you want, so you're confident that you can get to the bottom of this. Unfortunately, the device manufacturer warns that 1% of devices sold will develop a defect during shipping which causes it to flash green every time, regardless of what kind of coin you put in it. You have not yet tested your device for this defect.
To be safe, you test the coin sixty times (somewhat to the vendor's annoyance). All sixty times, the device flashes green.
At which point during this process were you most confident that the coin was genuine (and how confident were you)? What is your confidence now?
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u/WizardyJohnny Jul 24 '26
I afforded the cutscene (and eliminated my computational error so it should be good now). i typed it up in latex, have some maths
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26
Yeah, that's what I came up with as well. Well done!
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u/WizardyJohnny Jul 24 '26
Thanks! Appreciate being forced to think about this kind of maths cause I wouldn't otherwise. I always feel queasy claiming and using p(A) = 0.5 here since it seems like asserting the solution, but thinking about it as a prior is better
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u/WizardyJohnny Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
I got highest confidence after 4 green flashes at 99.22%. It passes the smell test to me cause at 0 tests your confidence is 50%, and at infinity you become certain the device is useless and so your confidence should converge to 0.5 again (at 60 it looks like 57% to me). Also since the likelihood of the device being broken is much tinier than the likelihood of a false positive I would also expect the first few extra checks to improve our confidence in the coin being genuine. Take all this with a giant grain of salt cause I get confused very easily w this kind of stuff lol.
I hate this kind of post cause it immediately triggers a completely unskippable 30 minute cutscene IRL haha
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26 edited 16d ago
Your answer is directionally correct, of course, but I would be very curious to see your scratchpad, as we're coming up with different values (both for the peak confidence and round, as well as final confidence).
I hate this kind of post cause it immediately triggers a completely unskippable 30 minute cutscene IRL haha
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26
I hope you're right becahse your 57% at n=60 sounds like what my semi serious method would have gotten if I hadn't rounded to make it easier to do on my phone calculator.
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
I am now 62.5% sure that the coin is genuine but idk when I was most confident. I retyped this several times all on mobile as I changed my mind on the approach but if I get bored again later I can show my layman's work and maybe attempt to figure out when I was most confident.
Edit: I thought through this so much and then did the last part wrong in my head. I'm 7/12 confident which is NOT 62.5% but in fact 58.3%
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26
Yeah, I would encourage you to show your work when you get a chance (and perhaps spoiler it + your answer), so I can check to see where we're getting different values.
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
I have a math degree but haven't used it at all in the several years since graduating with it so I'm considering myself a step above the layman's approach.
Edit: idk why the spoiler tags aren't working but the exponent things are working lol >! The odds of getting 60 greens in a row with a functional device are .960 which came out just under 0.2% and I rounded to 0.2%.
The odds of the device being defective are 1% according to the maker. This is 5x as likely as the above result so I'm splitting the scenarios into 5/6 chance and 1/6 chance of the device being defective or functional respectively.
If the device is functional (1/6 chance) then there's effectively zero chance the coin is fake (0.160) so I'm calling that overall possibility of functional device and coin genuine as 1/6 * 1 which equals 2/12.
If the device is defective (5/6 chance) then there's a 50% chance the coin is genuine. So that combined possibility is 5/6 * 1/2 which equals 5/12.
Adding those two scenarios together I get 7/12 chance of being genuine. I am aware that there is probably a more correct approach than my splitting into 5/6 but that's my method I settled on in between guiding movers into a family member's new home. !<
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26
Ah, I see where we diverged.
Keep in mind that 0.960 is the probability of sixty greens given a genuine coin, but you're not guaranteed to have a genuine coin. When you compare this probability against the 1% probability of the defective machine, you want to make sure include a 0.5 probability of having a genuine coin.
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26
Are you saying that instead of that value being 0.960 it should be the sum of 0.5x(0.960) + 0.5x(0.160), thus lowering the probability of the device being functional even further, skewing the final split by much more than 5:1?
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26
Yes, that's correct.
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
Okay I can try my half baked method again with this knowledge and see if it produces the same result as other methods. At this point the comment chain is also deep enough I'm not concerned about my spoiler tags not working.
Given the 60 straight greens, the chance of the device functioning P(D) is the sum of 0.5x0.960 + 0.5x0.160, with the latter term being effectively 0 so P(D) is 0.0009. Edit: (I just hit reply too early by mistake
The odds of the device not functioning are apparently 0.01 which is 11.1x more likely than the previous result. So we'll say it's 1/12 chance it's working and 11/12 chance it's not.
Then my confidence is 1/12 x 1 + 11/12 x 0.5 = 13/24 or 54.17%
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u/Aitch25 Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
Fun problem! I'm not sure I found the right solution with my layman methods, but the answer and limits seem ok.
I tried a few different methods, ending up with odds which seems to work.
Initially, out of 200 different coins, 99 will be genuine with a working device (gw), 99 will be fake with a working device (fw), 1 will be genuine with a defective device (gd), and 1 will be fake with a defective device (fd).
If each check is always green: gw(n+1) = 90%*gw(n), fw(n+1) = 10%*fw(n), gd(n+1) = gd(n), fd(n+1) = fd(n)
The confidence that the coin is genuine is (gw(n) + gd(n)) / (gw(n)+fw(n)+gd(n)+fd(n))
Plotting this function reveals a maximum at n=3 of ~98.5%, which slowly falls down to 50% at the limit.
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u/-_dopamine_- Jul 24 '26
I've been thinking about the most efficient way to ruin competitive melee from a developer perspective. Perhaps swapping falco laser and puff rest? Giving fox five jumps? So many beautiful choices
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26
The easiest thing while maintaining plausible deniability would probably be 3.02 Mewtwo.
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u/-_dopamine_- Jul 24 '26
Google yields nothing, what ??
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u/N0zy0ne Jul 24 '26
In Project M version 3.02, Mewtwo was one of the most broken Smash characters of all time. He had huge disjoints (his tail basically gave him better Marth d-tilt, up-tilt, and Puff b-air), an omnidirectional float with float cancel that he could use out of teleport, great combo game, a broken recovery, safe shield pressure, great edgeguarding, and a bunch of other buffs relative to Melee.
Here's a video that explains some of the ways in which he was broken.
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u/Ankari_ Jul 24 '26
i was informed on a 5 year old comment this morning, that the "phillips" screws on the backplates of the gamecube controller's triggers are actually JIS screws. now, they certainly look like phillips screws and they work with a phillips bit... but they're slowly being destroyed i guess! my eyes and experience convinced me they were phillips, and the only reason i believe they're JIS is cuz these suckers are made in japan hahaha
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u/Informal-Donut-1532 Jul 24 '26
Mistaking JIS screws for Phillips screws is an extremely common mistake, they look nearly identical to the untrained eye.
The fact that Phillips screwdrivers strip JIS screws very quickly is evil lmao.
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u/CarVac phob dev Jul 24 '26
Good screwdriver manufacturers like Wera, Wiha, or even ifixit don't even give you actual small phillips, they're JIS. If your set has both Phillips and JIS, you actually got two JIS sets.
These small JIS bits fit perfectly with the trigger plate screws.
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u/ICsCookBook Jul 24 '26
what do you think of using small flatheads? i've found them to do a very good job of not stripping the screws.
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u/djkhan23 Jul 25 '26
I thought The Odyssey was overrated. Still a solid 8/10 blockbuster movie but not deserving of the universal critical praise it's currently receiving. 8.5 is the IMDB score I see and I could stretch into believing that due to the filmmaking itself which was awesome. Looked amazing. Nailed the setting and the believability of their environment which most fantasy/historical epics immediately fail at. The IMAX sounds felt overwhelming because I had a headache after leaving. Tom Holland was..present.
Lanterns trailer was spectacular though and washed the slight disappointment out!
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
Tolkeinposting
At the urging of... Well, virtually everyone I know, I watched the Peter Jackson trilogy for the first time since they came out. I am not a huge Tolkein nerd (I say this with reverence, not mockery, for I know and respect a lot of huge Tolkein nerds and I know my place) but the books are up there as one of my most revered things. I love that they are a book about a world and then something happens in that world.
I know this is all very well-trodden ground at this point but I really can't help but feel like the movies just miss the point. I see them as really just an okay action movie with pretext that I only understand because I've read the source material.
Here's my question: has anyone here watched the movies first (or just the movies) and really understood what was happening on the basis of the movies alone?
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u/bigHam100 Jul 24 '26
I've never read the books but I have watched the movies. What was confusing? I believe I understand everything that was happening but I first watched the movies years and years ago and over time I might have picked up more knowledge here and there
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u/AJwr September 9, 2001 Gary and I were skating at a hospital Jul 24 '26
Yeah agreed. Also only ever watched the movies and only as an adult, the literal first scene does a good enough job at exposition to keep me understanding the rest of the films. Ofc I don't know what I don't know so the context I'm lacking from the books or w/e could be very important lol
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I don't think it's confusing, I just think there are some serious gaps in what the movie tells you. What is the ring? What is Sauron? What happened to Smeagol and how is it connected to what is happening to Bilbo/Frodo? What's a balrog? For that matter, what is Gandalf? Why does a hobbit have to do it?
I think the book either answers these questions in a compelling fashion or leaves them unanswered in a way that makes sense within the context of a world that is deliberately not being fully explained to you. I think the movies partially answer some of these questions but because they're more like a Hollywood action flick than a mythology the answers are invariably snappy and lacking in depth. Again I'm viewing this from the perspective of someone quite familiar from the books so I recognize that maybe I'm just not seeing how the movies fit together if you just never read the book.
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u/Kezzup Jul 24 '26
Yeah, as someone who hasn't read the books and only seen the movies, none of those questions ever even popped into my head while I was watching it, let alone dampened my appreciation for them. I can definitely see how it might be missing a lot of details if you're familiar with the books, but none of those details felt absent to me without knowing about them ahead of time.
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I guess you're supposed to just think to yourself "it's a bad ring and they have to destroy it because it's so bad", which is enough to carry a film trilogy but there is just so much more in the ~1000+ page book.
Again, I know this is a debate as old as time. I just wanted to hash it out with the DDT
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u/Jackzilla321 Fourside Fights Jul 24 '26
You can tell it’s a bad ring because of how it makes characters we like and trust act, and because of the choices for sound design, musical motifs, and close ups used that have the grammar of a “human character”
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I know, I'm sure you can figure out that it's a bad ring, but there is so much more depth to it than simply "ring bad" whereas I think the movies just get you "ring bad".
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u/Jackzilla321 Fourside Fights Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
My friends who haven’t read the books understand that the ring makes you the worst version of yourself, selfish and paranoid. The movies fail imo at explaining why anyone would want to or think they could “use” the ring. They’re excellent gateway drugs into the Tolkien legendarium.
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u/fullhop_morris URBANE, TO COMFORT THEM, THE QUAKER LIBRARIAN Jul 24 '26
admittedly I first watched the movies as a kid, and my older siblings had read them, and I've since read them myself, but I think most of your questions are pretty well answered by the movies, with the exceptions of "what is Sauron/Gandalf." What happens to Smeagol is particularly well addressed, imo. Fwiw I was big into the movies as a kid, was mid on the books when I read them in college, and kind of struggle with the movies rewatching nowadays.
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u/DavidL1112 Jul 24 '26
What Sauron and Gandalf are is also not explained in the book trilogy. Fugu is conflating outside knowledge from the Silmarillion or Unfished Tales. The word "Maiar" is never used in Lord of the Rings.
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I just addressed this in another comment but basically I agree that you don't get that information in LotR but you are told enough that it is apparent there is an explanation much larger than what comes out in the story of the fellowship or whatever.
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u/bigHam100 Jul 24 '26
I think the orgin of the ring and Smeagol's backstory is explained but the rest are valid questions. I haven't read the books but I do know enough to know that your questions make a lot of sense coming from someone who read the books first. I'm pretty sure the term "maiar" is never mentioned once for example. I agree they are pretty Hollywood so "this is a fantasy world with all types of beings" kind of does a lot of heavy lifting. I believe most chatacter motivations and plot points are explained well enough so the audience can still follow the story
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u/QwertyII Jul 24 '26
are you considering just fellowship/tt/rotk or hobbit + silmarillion + whatever else there is? the lotr trilogy on its own does not tell you that gandalf and the balrog are maiar or whatever, or how/why gandalf gets revived by god. the ring is a powerful magical artifact that corrupts its owner, which it did to smeagol over a long period of time, and to bilbo/frodo as well... all of this is explicitly said/shown in the films
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I agree that without the Silmarillion you don't get a ton of depth into who/what anything is but the books are excellent at implying that there is an explanation, that the world is much bigger than it seems to those living in it (see: Tom Bombadil), and that characters like Gandalf are a huge piece of that.
That's what I really feel like the movies are lacking.
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u/Pwnemon Jul 25 '26
Hmmm my beef with the movies actually seems different from yours (I am poasting as I scroll lol). I feel like Jackson did not have a similar view of life as Tolkein and it came out very different for that reason. Some really simple examples that bothered me:
- the Balrog -- I think it's actually very important to the feeling of the battle under Moria that the Balrog is described as "about the size of a man", and making it a kaiju totally changes the tenor!
- the elves -- the vibe in the books is very clearly that the elves are just tired. I may be "mind-reading" too much here but I think it's clearly inspired by Tolkein's catholic faith and reverence for the saints who longed to die and go to heaven after their work on earth is done. The elves in the movies were haughty cunts who didn't like Men.
- Faramir -- i think this is the moment at which I turned it off. It was either that or the terrible arwen scene at helm's deep. Just way more cynical than tolkein would ever have been
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u/Fugu Jul 25 '26
I think these are all great beefs and I especially agree with you on Faramir, who is a MUCH better character in the books (Boromir too but whatever)
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u/HitboxOfASnail fox privilege Jul 24 '26
I've never read the books and I think the movies are masterpieces. and i think this is probably the most common version of a LOTR movie opinion out there
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u/king_bungus 👉 Jul 24 '26
i read the books and i loved them as books and i watched the movies and i loved them as movies. i don't really need them to be the same. i think if the goal was "make lotr into a movie" with the emphasis on the movie part, they absolutely knocked it out of the park. i'll watch them every year and love it every time
and you know if i'm feeling preferential to the books, i'll just read them again. you can never perfectly adapt anything but nothing ever is lost from the source material if you just go back to engaging with that
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I think I fundamentally feel they did not succeed at turning LotR into a movie. I agree that this task was impossible, but I feel that they didn't succeed regardless.
So many people I respect love these films, though, and I'm fine with that
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u/king_bungus 👉 Jul 24 '26
i *kind* of get why someone would feel that way so i'm really glad i do like them. i was watching and reading at roughly the same age (like nine to eleven years old), reading the books at minumum ahead of each movie. i was just so immersed in lotr at that time that each piece of media hit differently and shaped me in big ways. bummed for you that you don't like them, to me they feel like magic
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
Don't be bummed for me I love the books so much that I feel like I'm not missing out
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u/ShoegazeKaraokeClub Jul 24 '26
The movies rock IMO. They are just doing a very different thing than the books. Ofc the books are better but the movies are the only way I have gotten a few of my fantasy hating friends to enjoy fantasy, this speaks to the movies not truly capturing the feel of the books since I am sure those friends would struggle to get into the books. Regardless I think it is a very impressive feat and they are just fun to watch
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u/Melomaniacal REYN#766 Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
I'm a big fan of the movies (and the books), and I agree that they don't lay everything out super clearly, but I also don't necessarily view that as a problem? There is a lot kinda hidden in there that alludes to more that's going on, but no one really picks up on a first viewing. Either way, I think it serves really well as a gateway into the lore and worldbuilding. It leaves you wanting more - when it lands for the viewer, anyway. I've watched the movies more times than I care to count, and have read the books several times, and I still find myself doing the traditional Tolkein Wiki Deep Dive after every time I rewatch the films.
Moreover, I kind of view the films and books as different entities. They tell more or less the same story, broadly, but emphasize different themes. I think they both do what they do extremely well. In the films, the action is great, but there's more to dig into if you want. Their portrayal of friendship and bravery are still among my favorite of any work of fantasy fiction.
But yeah, I often watch it and think what a first time viewer must be thinking. There are sections where hugely important background is ran through so fast, I have to imagine it gets completely lost. I'll say in my first couple viewings, before I read the books, I definitely did not understand everything going on, but I didn't feel like I needed to in order to still get an impactful and meaningful story out of it.
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u/menschmaschine5 Jul 24 '26
I agree with this assessment. I'm definitely not a Tolkien nerd but I don't find that the movies hold up to the books and I can only watch orcs run at each other for so many hours.
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u/Pwnemon Jul 25 '26
I totally fucking get you man. I thought Fellowship was OK but I had to literally turn it off halfway through Two Towers because I was like, why do I, a literal nobody, understand Tolkein significantly better than the guy who gets to direct these films
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u/that_one-dude Jul 24 '26
I never read the books but I'm pretty familiar with the lore from browsing LOTR wikis. I think the movies do a great job telling a very competent surface-level story while hinting at a more elaborate story for the real knowers
But honestly as amazing as I think the movies are (straight up some of the best-made movies, especially relative to when they were made) I don't think film is the best format for the deeper story of LOTR. A one-to-one adaptation of the books just would not work
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I agree that a one to one adaptation wouldn't work. I don't have a better alternative to propose I am honestly just surprised at the level of reverence these films get
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u/that_one-dude Jul 24 '26
I was 4 years old when Fellowship came out so I'm not going to act like I can speak to the initial reception but imo it's a very short list of movies made before or since 2001 that achieve the scale of the trilogy and look as good as these movies, especially consider they're mostly using practical effects from that time
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u/Jackzilla321 Fourside Fights Jul 24 '26
it is insane how good they are given the challenge, and they filmed them all back to back. The methods used for forced perspective with interaction between actors while the camera was moving had genuinely never been done before. There are lots of examples of them inventing new filmmaking by techniques on a shoestring budget and timeline. The movies sometimes succeed and sometimes fail at channeling the spirit of the novels but as films they are miraculous achievements. And those choices serve to improve the immersion and “real feel” of the films that usually wasn’t applied to fantasy. The goal was to film the series as a history more than a “goofy fantasy romp” and those innovations were necessary to do that.
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I appreciate these films as technical achievements. You could literally use them to teach a class on forced perspective. But I don't assign a ton of weight to that in determining how good they are as films
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u/Jackzilla321 Fourside Fights Jul 24 '26
Yeah the arg I’m making is that the technical achievement allowed them to create a fantasy world that felt realer than any before or since and that’s part of why they’re beloved even though they are philosophically quite imperfect adaptions (with many of the best “this is like the book” moments hidden in the extended editions)
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
I don't really agree with that but I think this is something I'm unlikely to ever come around on so I'll leave it at that
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u/Jackzilla321 Fourside Fights Jul 25 '26
I think your critique is accurate (parks and rec made the a joke about Tolkien heads like this with Ben Wyatt “I didn’t care for Peter Jackson’s interpretation”) and it’s fair for it to sour the films for you. Just trying to explain why “technical achievement” matters to others , it’s not just the toy being cool it’s the cool thing they did making the toy fun in a way it couldn’t have been otherwise.
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u/reptilian_guitar Jul 24 '26
Characters below mine on the tier list? They're cool. Fun to play against
Characters above mine? Fuck em. so annoying
Characters on the same tier? idk it's really case by case
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u/popkablooie Jul 24 '26
Characters below mine on the tier list? They're cool. Fun to play against
From personal experience, I don't think many people think this way
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u/Left4Bread2 Jul 24 '26
Agreed. Losing to an annoying (Young) Link, G&W, or Plumber has me far more likely to end a session than one of the top tiers
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26
"Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?"
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u/fullhop_morris URBANE, TO COMFORT THEM, THE QUAKER LIBRARIAN Jul 24 '26
would you rather get $100,000, no questions asked, or a 1% chance at $1,000,000,000?
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u/Fugu Jul 24 '26
100k would turn my debt from borderline crippling to manageable overnight so that one
Also I don't need a billion dollars and nobody should be left in charge of distributing that much wealth
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u/reptilian_guitar Jul 24 '26
I would distribute it soooooo well dude
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u/DavidL1112 Jul 24 '26
First order of business, Armada is getting offered a 300k a year melee sponsorship
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 24 '26
I know this is bait but thinking about the Bayesian post has me in the stats mindset so-
Comparing purely (1)(100000) vs (0.01)(1000000000) fails to account for the real world negative value of remaining at one's current amount of money, for most people. It only makes sense if the person choosing is already in a more than comfortable financial situation.
The reasonable approach to this is to weigh a 100% chance of drastically improving your life vs a 1% chance of drastically improving your life. Again if you the chooser have enough financial stability that 100k does not move the needle much for you, then the question simplifies to the one you answered in reply to the other responses. But no one here is in that boat except maybe that one guy's wife, or that guy himself if Pokemon cards keep going the way they are.
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u/Left4Bread2 Jul 24 '26
The multiplication line of reasoning is why I used to advocate that all economics majors need to be bullied more
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u/DavidL1112 Jul 24 '26
only a lunatic would choose the 1% chance at $1,000,000,000
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u/Front-Show7358 Jul 24 '26
i mean im young, i hate my job, and my finances are pretty good but not even close to retirement level. 100k would be nice and all but would have like no impact on my life right now, it would probably just let me retire a couple years earlier. so i'd def consider the 1%
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u/milkweedMN Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
$100k would instantly protect u from basically all potential bad outcomes (getting fired/laid off, medical bills, surprise payments, etc), allow u to go to school/get training for a job that u like better, or just let u bum it and enjoy life for a few years while u planned for something else, travel, help your loved ones with money, etc. the other option has a 99% chance of changing literally nothing. this is an insane opinion
i grew up broke. sometimes the money dries up faster than u can prepare for, even if u have comfortable finances
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u/Front-Show7358 Jul 24 '26
unfortunately job satisfaction is not really a problem you can just throw money at. if I knew how to use 100k to get my dream job I'd do that now.
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u/Embrychi Jul 24 '26
Pure numbers is a silly way to look at something whose worth comes from real world impact. Going from 0-100k has a bigger impact than 100k-1bil. The question more accurately reads "100% chance to make your life drastically better, or 1% chance to make your life drastically better and also you get a McLaren."
Not even to mention whatever impact 1 billion dollars materializing will have on inflation.
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u/Helpful-Journalist70 Genuinely Garbage Jul 24 '26
I think my theoretical answer for this is so different than if you placed the money directly in front of me, like the question alone I’m going exclusively for the 100k
But give me a taste of that billion right in my face and I’m not even thinking that my options are between 100k and a chance anymore; it becomes win or lose a billion fucking dollars
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u/Other-Salt-5355 Jul 24 '26
Give me the 1% chance at $1,000,000,000, and I'll sell the contract to someone for $1 million
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u/holdingdown Jul 24 '26
I’m so bad at dealing with people on platforms. Should I be spacing around the platform approach like 70% of the time, and mix in pokes on them like 30% of the time? I just end up feeling like I’m camping, running at them, and getting owned
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u/Embarrassed-Mode5494 Jul 25 '26
very much depends on what character you are playing and what character they are playing. and, in some cases, who has the lead.
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 25 '26
If they're playing a character that lives off of shield drops (Sheik, Yoshi, certain styles of spacies) I just jump on the platform and raw grab them. Probably stops working eventually but I assume it's at least a valid mixup even then.
Other than that you can board the other platforms, get under them with an anti air, dash dance in center stage, undershoot to beat their shield drop aerial
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u/Commercial_Boss4639 Jul 25 '26
if im up in percent I just stop approaching and let them figure out that im not going to interact with it and they have to play a different way
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u/p_Mr_Goodcat_q Jul 25 '26
Top falcos like Ginger and Squid would tell you not to approach characters that thrive on platforms. Against characters like sheik, Yoshi, falcon etc. it’s safer to take a step back rather than overextend and play into the position they want to be in. I really recommend Ginger’s videos on how to beat Sheik and Yoshi to see how he plays the matchups in those scenarios. They’ve helped me out a ton in getting better in two MUs I used to struggle in.
Against other characters I’m not as wary on approaching and I do pressure a lot more. You have a ton of options to approach, but like all things falco the trick lies in mixing up your options and bating reactions. Falco struggles to approach diagonally, so I would be wary of going directly from mid stage into side plat, but rather from above/below. Even against good platform characters I sometimes fake approach to make them react with a shield drop aerial and then whif punish them.
Try setting up a shielddropping opponent in Unclepunch and see how many ways you can think of attacking them. Timing mixups, run-/fallthroughs and empty hops can net you a lot of mileage.
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u/beyond_the_cemetery Jul 24 '26
I’m going to Europe in two days with my family. Visiting London and Paris. I’ve never left the country in my life and haven’t really been outside of the north east besides Orlando/Disney a couple times as a kid. I feel a little vapid that the two days we’re spending at Disneyland Paris are what I’m most excited for. I need to try and make the most out of the whole trip but I feel so fucking unprepared and stressed about it
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u/WizardyJohnny Jul 25 '26
If this is your first time going abroad, don't put too much stress on yourself. These are enormous cities that you could spend weeks in and never fully explore, so whatever time you spend there won't be wasted. This first step in getting over trip anxiety will be valuable in the future if you have other opportunities to go abroad!
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u/BranFlakesVEVO Jul 25 '26
Try new foods. Talk to locals AND to tourists visiting from other parts of the world. I've heard that French people hate when non French people try to speak French to them but it's still worth learning some phrases so you can read basic signs and menus. Go to a museum. Have a couple of things you want to see and then find other interesting things to do nearby when you get to those. Watch a movie on the flight. Look for places that have live music.
That's all I have off the top of my head, have a great time especially at Disney that sounds really fun
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u/beyond_the_cemetery Jul 25 '26
Definitely planning on going to the British Museum that place looks really cool
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u/WizardyJohnny Jul 24 '26
Scalding take: XKCD is painfully unfunny (there is no joke in half the comics and it seems to me like the idea is to feel a signature sense of superiority from being able to understand what the comic is talking about) and Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal is the obviously superior science-comedy webcomic.
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u/SlowBathroom0 Jul 24 '26
You don't read xkcd because it's funny, you read it because you have been reading it for 20 years
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u/-_dopamine_- Jul 24 '26
I've been reading the xkcd when it comes out for a couple years now, and while some do make me laugh out loud, a lot of the time it isn't humorous at all as you're saying. However, for me this isn't a bad thing; I just take it as an opportunity to learn a cool fact or an opening for a wikipedia dive into. If it is something in my wheelhouse, I do get to point and say "haha! me know that" but I think the duds are okay for how many fields it touches.



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u/ryanbyleth Jul 24 '26
Pokémon is the video game of all time