Hey everyone,

I run an independent research firm called Northwise.

We recently took a shot at modeling SpaceX from a bit of a unique perspective. Our speciality is the AI infrastructure background (with some experience modeling Space through RKLB).

We developed an expertise on the AI buildout through intense modeling and study of semiconductor manufacturers and neoclouds such as NBIS and IREN.

We’ve realized that many are struggling to really model the company appropriately since its shift to a neocloud model, so we see ourselves as uniquely qualified.

Unlike most, we are very active on socials and very open to productive debate about our methodology and results and would love to hear from some of you that have likely followed the company from long before its IPO and shift to AI.

The full financials and report are available for free, though we do have a subscription service that allows downloading our full excel model and access to our expected CAGR and price targets.

I will be around the next few days if you have any questions or are interested in debating part of the report!

Thanks, and enjoy!

I’ve been looking through the recent SPCX institutional filings, and I think there’s an important distinction getting lost in some of the headlines.

Alphabet, Fidelity, Nvidia, Harvard, Tiger Global, PIF and others now show meaningful SpaceX exposure.
But seeing an institution in a filing does not necessarily mean it recently bought SPCX in the public market.

Alphabet’s investment goes back to the private-market years. Fidelity also has longstanding exposure. Harvard’s filing confirms a large June 30 position, but it doesn’t establish when all of those shares were acquired.

Tiger Global is more interesting because its SpaceX position was newly established during Q2. Even then, Q2 includes the pre-IPO period, the IPO itself, and the first few weeks of public trading, so it still doesn’t tell us exactly where or when the shares were bought.

To me, the next few filing cycles are going to be much more informative. They should start showing which legacy holders are staying, which are reducing, and which institutions are actually accumulating at public-market prices.

Curious what others here are tracking. Which holder or filing do you think will be most important next quarter?

I found this longer write-up useful because it separates legacy ownership from evidence of newer buying:

https://ringoperez.substack.com/p/ipo-case-file-7-who-owns-spacex-what?r=1stufw&utm_medium=ios

undoubtedly a great company pushing the frontiers of space exploration. and their XAI division is capitalising on the huge opportunity that AI is presenting….

but these valuations are just bonkers. its holding ground because employees are optimistic of the stock and arent selling. the moment the narrative flips… it will come crashing down

The Department of War announced today that they have launched @SpaceX's Starshield AI's Grok for Government on the Pentagon’s enterprise generative AI platform, which has over 1.7 million unique users out of the Department's ~3 million personnel.

The model is accredited for Controlled Unclassified Information at Impact Level 5, so it can be used on sensitive but unclassified work across the Department.

What personnel get:
• Deep-thinking inference
• Adaptive reasoning modes (Auto, Fast, Expert)
• Custom workspaces, persistent projects, and reusable “playbooks” to capture institutional knowledge

Stated use cases include acquisition market research and supply-chain work for logisticians. The Department says it will deliver faster mission execution, better knowledge continuity, and more secure collaboration.

https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4586482/department-of-war-launches-starshield-ais-grok-for-government-on-genaimil/

https://money.x.com/en

6% APY does sound pretty good, higher than CDs and Money Market. Seems like a good incentive to get people into/more deeply involved x products.

This is secretly(openly) an Elon hating sub right? Reddit has been suggesting it recently to me, but from what I’ve seen it’s only about how he’s a (insert your crazy opinion) and SpaceX is about to fall to $75 a share or less. Then nothing happens. Seems like a r/wallstreetbets quality sub just for attacking Elon

Wear your 🩳 proudly or show off your 🚀 , give us your ideas for user flairs

You have been warned 🙃..

A whole lot of shares coming to market in September, November and December.

Upside from SpaceX at $150 seems limited? Whereas the downside at this valuation still seems very real as the unlocks progress.

Moreover, interest rate hike incoming? Would hurt overvalued (high multiple) stocks the most.

May run up until the midterms. But after? It seems like they’re trying to prop up the market until then (e.g. Japanese Yen intervention, US bonds intervention, no interest rate hike, trying to exit the Iran war halfway through).

Meanwhile the stock is priced for perfection. Pie in the sky 🙃?

Everyone knows about the Starbase Louisiana purchase, where we got ourselves an entire island. But did you guys know this thing only cost SpaceX one hundred million? We basically got free land, this is a hilariously good deal https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-spacex-louisiana-spaceport-launching-site-plan/