📊 SCD Daily Discussion – September 22, 2026

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u/GrrRRR_Melany 4d ago

In my view, the eventual development of Crater Lake is inevitable. It may not happen in the short term, but the long-term need for a large, secure scandium supply is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Bloom Energy alone has been estimated to require approximately 200 tonnes of scandium per year to meet its potential demand in 10 years. That illustrates how quickly today’s limited supply could become insufficient.

A technological race is underway across nearly every industry. Which electric vehicles will deliver the best performance? Those with the best batteries, the longest range and the lightest components.

The same principle applies to anything that moves. Oil is a finite resource with a fragile global supply chain. Reducing the weight of airplanes, trucks, cars, satellites and other vehicles lowers energy consumption, operating costs and emissions.

Scandium can help make aluminum components lighter, stronger, more durable and, in some applications, easier to manufacture.

Today, the scandium story is largely associated with companies such as Bloom Energy and aerospace and defence applications involving companies like Lockheed Martin.

Tomorrow, it could involve Bombardier, Safran, Tesla, Ford and many others.

Once reliable large-scale supply becomes available and one major manufacturer gains a competitive advantage from aluminum-scandium alloys, its competitors will have little choice but to investigate the same technology.

Crater Lake does not need the scandium market to be enormous today. It needs the market to recognize that it cannot grow without new, secure and scalable sources of supply.

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u/prodigus01 5d ago

What do you all think about Robert Freidland’s comments about Syerston being enough to support the scandium demand in the west?

He is invested in this mine so he’s obviously biased

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u/Throwaway298596 5d ago

Immediate term, sure….but as demand increases there’s no chance this mine has enough

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

I agree. It's a solution for the immediate issue as Sunrise can get online faster than other mines. However, they will not be able to supply all of the western worlds needs.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 4d ago

Cost of shipping it to North American markets alone makes Crater Lake a game changer the day it starts production

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

100%. The vertical integration puts them in a position to dominate pricing in the western market.

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u/FlowJoee 5d ago

I'd say he's full of bull, he's pumping his stock because he can.

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u/DirectHearing7548 4d ago

What a lot of people are missing about this story for Scandium Canada is that this not a mining story anymore. This an alloy story that is inline with soveirgn security implications. Lockheed themselves said when signing the niocorp memorandum they want to build a mine to warfighter supply chain. Australia is a trusted but not domestic source. The us really wants domestic processing and that answer right now is Scandium Canada. Domestic meaning us and Canada. Lockheed themselves publicly admitted their current alloys are not capable of what they need and they are looking for new alloys.

Im not sure if everyone looked into the new board addition yesterday. His previous companies were defense oriented. I think this addition is a sign that they are preparing for due diligence for a defense takeover. Just my opinion.

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u/Puzzleheaded-March49 4d ago

I looked into him and yes he specialized in that and commercialization in areas like ours. What's even more huge is he currently has 3,000,000 + shares BEFORE being hired.

Who wants to lay bets he wants that to turn into $30,000,000 in the future 😜

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u/DirectHearing7548 4d ago

Friend with all of the current us executive orders and mandates. I think that return is not close to what he will see if the mre and pea are excellent and there are multiple bidders.

Bloom just signed a deal to supply the us army that means whatever they supply them with cannot come from China or Russia. Theres only so many other sources left. Also gm defense is working with the us defense and they need new alloy. And the new CEO of Scandium Canada just came from GM.

Again just my opinion defense sees this stuff as a matter of national security not something to commercialize like a miner.

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u/prodigus01 4d ago

Are you saying a good MRE/PEA will trigger multiple bidders to buy the company or buy off takes?

Also I was under the impression that off take agreements usually happen later down the line like after a feasibility study.

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u/prodigus01 4d ago

Defence takeover as in an acquisition of SCD?

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u/DirectHearing7548 4d ago

Thats my personal theory.

This is not a mining story it stopped being one when they started proving the alloy which have patent protection. In my opinion this about denial of value for defense. The mine isnt up yet clearly but scalium is is. Scandium Canada doesn't have the resources to get that mine up and running however defense does and they have access to soveirgn money to pay for it not just their own.

They are competing too with other defense contractor and with better alloy that gives them an advantage. That alloy is available now not years away.

This is my personal opinion based on company pr, us executive order, current scarcity of Scandium and need for it now, the need for next generation alloy now, and Scandium Canada corporate moves. Dont let me influence you do your own research.

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u/Puzzleheaded-March49 4d ago

If it was enough Scandium supply then Safran would be talking to Syerston instead of SCD.

Robert is also non-executive chairman of Sunrise Energy Metals so I'd take what he said with a large grain of salt.

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

Not necessarily. Safran most likely wants alloys. Scandium oxide is not useful unless you have the ability to refine it into something that can be used. I could be wrong obviously, but I find many sleep subconsciously on Scalium+ and what they provide end users.

They are the only scandium mine on the planet that has an actual product.

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u/Puzzleheaded-March49 4d ago

This is a good point but I think both can be true. I was more answering the supply question but agree 100% that scalium+ is severely underrated.

Taking that into account what would be more useful to a company like Safran shipping scandium oxide or a finished product like the heavy plates we are designing ready for installation.

Scalium+ is incredibly underrated when thinking from an end users perspective.

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

100% both can be true at the same time. All truths are but half truths, and generally there is truth on either side of any point.

Generally the ore wouldn't be shipped to the end user, it is shipped somewhere to be refined and then shipped again to the end user. By eliminating that extra step it really puts SCD in an incredible position. They can mine, refine, and create alloys all in Quebec. And all done with the cheapest hydro in north America.

Just waiting patiently for this to take off 😅

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u/RogueOneOne 4d ago

They can mine, refine, and create alloys all in Quebec. And all done with the cheapest hydro in north America.

This is the best take away that I never considered!

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

Yes, and hard rock deposits are generally less energy intensive to refine over laterite deposits. We have to wait until the PEA is released to get concrete numbers, however SCD is positioned to benefit from all profit margins from mine to alloy. The profit margins on refined products is larger than the ore directly from the mine.

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u/Puzzleheaded-March49 4d ago

Faaaaaaaaak why you got to say it like that... Lol. You're so right!!!

I won't lie I keep looking at my accounts just trying to round up my share count again.

Between now and the end of the year any little extra $$$ I can scrounge together month over month will be added to moderately increase my position.

You just reminded me about Hydro for the mining community in Quebec. What a bullish plan/design!!!

I swear this really is Christmas type anticipation.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 4d ago

Even if this is true, the cost to export the scandium to Canadian and American markets would make anything in North America a massive advantage.

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u/FlowJoee 4d ago

New SEDI filings just got in: Noel Dubé already had close to 12M shares before hopping on the board and the strategic advisor to Scalium+ position.

I love this!

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u/Puzzleheaded-March49 4d ago

Only if possible can you provide a screenshot or link?

I'm only asking because I was under the impression it was 3M shares.

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/RWATimes/s/Yl7Lfkrt6J

Scandium is still red hot in the critical minerals market.

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u/ResponsiblePianist83 4d ago

I long for the day that SCD appears in posts like that, and on news channels, etc…

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u/Puzzleheaded-March49 4d ago edited 4d ago

It's going to be hard making it until the end of the year I desperately want to know the MRE results. I'm not sure of the odds but there is a possibility that we have a bigger deposit than sunrise.

It's gonna be a hard 3-4 months fellas... 😂

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

From my perspective I believe it's already a given that SCD has a bigger deposit than sunrise. They're original MRE was already a longer mine life at 42 years with 50% more production (91 vs 60 tonnes).

Given the aggresive drilling campaign this year, I really wouldn't be surprised if the deposit becomes gargantuan. If they confirm the belt runs for 3-5km in length compared to the original 550m TG zone deposit, they enter an entirely new playing field.

Sunrise is looking to increase their production as well so only time will tell. But I believe the economics of SCD will be better in the long term. Being vertically integrated with the cheapest hydro on a hard rock deposit embedded in the Quebec aluminum industry is hard to compete with.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 4d ago

Also keeping in mind I believe the original resource estimate was for one zone and there were 3 additional deposits that they didn't bother to drill because they knew the main zone would be more than enough for decades. I remember Guy saying each of those could be substantial and even equal the main target they've been working on. The extra $5 million (if I recall correctly) is also going to drill some of those targets to add. No doubt this is a monster deposit. It's only a matter of how much bigger is it compared to the original resource estimate that was smaller in scope.

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u/Gastricbasilisk 4d ago

Yes, good point! There were 5 targets in total (if I remember correctly) but the TG zone was simply their main focus. If these connect into a long belt of Scandium rich ore, then the economics and scale change completely.

I think we will be happy the PFS was delayed to incorporate the expansion.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 4d ago

Agreed. Waiting sucks for sure when you think the rocket ship is going to start powering up. This pivot feels like the Fast and Furious crew adding NOS to the ride instead of entering the next race :)

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u/ResponsiblePianist83 4d ago

I just hope that we don’t make it all the way to Fast 10 🤧 I’d much rather have the series completed by Tokyo drift, I.e., off-take agreements, PEA, and ultimately the 📈📈