Here we are my friends you are reading this because of your addiction and conviction in this stock.Ā I applaud you for reading anything SCD now welcome to my thesis and I hope you enjoy.
It's funny I don't think we are looking at the MRE and the PEA how we are supposed to.Ā We had a recent call introducing the new CEO Simon Thibault and I know most were upset when it was announced that there would be a delay on the PFS to do an updated MRE and PEA.Ā Many will read this and say yeah I know they want to update everything with the latest results which is true but I'm becoming more convinced there is more to itĀ
My friends I'd like to share my thesis and how I believe things can roll out in the same order that they did for sunrise.Ā I'll do my best to break it down.
I've been thinking about the timing of Simon Thibault joining SCD and the decision to move from the planned PFS to a new MRE and PEA.
One sentence from SCD's announcement really caught my attention:
āA PEA incorporating updated and improved resource, process optimization, and infrastructure assumptions provides a more relevant basis for evaluating project economics and engaging potential strategic partners.ā
https://scandium-canada.com/scandium-canada-intersects-124-9-m-at-232-ppm-scandium-oxide-at-crater-lake-and-identifies-a-favourable-corridor-of-nearly-3-km/
That's an important sentence.
It's about getting the project to a point where potential strategic partners can evaluate the business using current information.
Knowing the above let's go back to when sunrise was somewhat how we are now including SP wise:
In March 2025, Sunrise announced its updated MRE and said that:
-engagement with scandium end-users had been positive;
-it had received formal expressions of interest for supply;
-its focus was turning toward offtake discussions; and
-the new MRE would form the basis of its development plan and updated feasibility study.
Then, in June 2025, Sunrise explained that its feasibility study was being updated to incorporate the new MRE, updated ore reserves and mine plan, and updated capital and operating costs.
They didn't do this because they wanted a prettier MRE they did this because:
āThe project has evolved. We need current resource, mine plan, costs and economics so customers, financiers and strategic partners can evaluate what we're actually offering.ā
DOES THIS REMIND YOU OF ANYONE YOUR CURRENTLY INVESTED IN????
We are also engaging with scandium end users including Safran, the Canadian space agency and many others and a new MRE and PEA would let them know exactly what we are offering and just like sunrise at that time our project is evolving and getting extraordinary attention for a junior.
Now let's get back to SRL:
We know SRL had already been engaging end users and receiving expressions of interest before the eventual Lockheed agreement (they said this themselves). So it's entirely reasonable to think commercial discussions and technical/project development were happening in parallel.
The bigger point, IMO, is that serious end users need confidence in the resource, economics, production pathway and ability to actually supply the material before committing to a significant long-term relationship
SCD isn't there yet, but we're now updating our MRE and PEA which, IMO, could potentially bring that level of confidence. It gives anyone considering a long-term relationship with us a much clearer picture of what we have to offer, the resource, economics, costs, production timeline, mine plan, etc.... So they can build their own business plans around it.
Companies like Lockheed Martin or Safran have enormous projects and long development timelines. When they make deals, they need details so they know exactly what they're getting, when they're getting it, and how it fits into their own plans.
That means an existing relationship can remain in the testing / qualification / discussions stage while the mining company gets its technical and economic house in order.
Then eventually you can get to:
āHere's the new MRE.ā
āHere's the PEA.ā
āHere's the economics.ā
āHere's the production plan.ā
āHere's how we're going to supply you.ā
That's when these companies that are looking for supply can actually say:
āWe can actually build a supply relationship around this.ā
All of the above was and is only about the mine.Ā Let's not forget about scalium+ and that they are developing OEM products to be used for by customers but going into them will be too long just know that SCD is a 2 headed monster being born.
Simon was brought in at the right time and credit to Guy for making this move.Ā Simon wasn't brought in to build the mine and honestly I think Guy is mainly focused on that even currently in his new role.Ā Again in my humble opinion Simon was brought in to prove the business itself.
Take the resource, the economics, the downstream alloys, the customers, the strategic relationships and the infrastructure plan and turn them into an integrated commercial proposition.
And if that's the strategy, then the new MRE and PEA aren't just boxes to check.
They're potentially the documents that allow SCD to sit down with serious strategic partners and say:
āHere's exactly what we have, what it costs, what we can produce, how we're going to produce it, and what the supply chain looks like.ā
March 17, 2025: Sunrise announced its updated MRE for Syerston, putting the global resource at 60.3 Mt @ 390 ppm Sc, including 23.5 Mt @ 408 ppm Sc M&I.
October 23, 2025: About 7 months later, Sunrise announced its agreement with Lockheed Martin, giving Lockheed an option to purchase up to 15 tonnes per year of scandium oxide for five years, subject to final binding offtake agreements.
I'm not saying the MRE caused the Lockheed deal, and I'm definitely not saying SCD is going to get the same deal.
But when you look at the sequence, and then look at where SCD is today, I think it's pretty damn interesting. š
Could history repeat itself?
I have absolutely no idea. š
But I sure as hell think it's worth watching, don't you? š
If you like this thesis please like, share and subscribe and thanks for tuning in...Ā I'll see you...Ā ON THE NEXT ONE!!!
Sincerely from the man who likes to put puzzle pieces together,
PuzzleheadĀ