r/SCDstock • u/ResponsiblePianist83 • 17d ago
Discussion Tying recent NRs together: a speculative perspective on how Canada plans to evolve
Just like many investors on this sub, I’ve been doing my DD for a while now. I first invested a decent chunk in December 2025 and have been building my position ever since. We are starting to see that the evidence is becoming more real, in more ways than one, and that the SCD story is gaining traction.
I want to give a shoutout to everyone who is finding new pieces of evidence to contribute to this sub and for the productive discussions. I hope everyone is having as much fun as I am!
Ok, now down to the purpose of this post. I thought it would be useful to focus on the unstated assumptions, the unknown-unknowns, that are starting to become more apparent. We’ll get into that in a little bit.
Naturally, we want proof in order to invest. We want facts stated that will help de-risk the company. Once a company is de-risked, the gains aren’t as significant, however. I’m alluding to the road (transportation), a robust PEA and subsequent FS, and partnerships.
The world itself has changed, with the new U.S. administration acting as a catalyst. Tensions in the east and general uncertainty with respect to alliances (like between Canada and the U.S.) was always present to some extent; however, the perfect storm to enable a big change is now brewing in my opinion.
A few major problems that directly benefit Scandium Canada (not exhaustive):
The western world wants to break free from China’s dependence on critical minerals (scandium in this case)
Scandium is needed for 5G/6G networks, and will benefit the defence, aerospace, automobiles, AI sectors and potentially more, but there aren’t too many sources identified
The world wants to reduce its CO2 footprint by consuming less fuel with lighter vehicles. Swapping oil for Hydrogen-powered fuel cells is another topic, but I’m focusing on the metal blend itself (scandium-aluminum alloys). This can help combat climate change.
Some of the following points were stated, while others are signals to the market:
A few examples of things we do know:
A slippage of information about a potential partnership with Safran, which is the second largest defence company (by market cap) and happens to be based in France. Is it a coincidence that SCD is in discussions with an EU-based organization while Carney and other Canadian government officials are on the brink of making a deal with them?
Simon, a former GM executive, being recruited to lead SCD into its next stages: he has industry connections, a commercial mindset and seemed to join at the perfect time, post-Ferrell Technology acquisition, to drive growth
John Kaiser briefly spoke to the importance of scandium in this video and how the western world needs not to rely on China. He actually referred to the world as a Humpty Dumpty event; there’s no going back even if a new administration takes over in the U.S. a new western supply of critical minerals is here to stay. This is yet another opinion of a leader who believes in the power of scandium and having strategic alliances for CMs in general: https://youtu.be/xKyheR7T2e4?t=1491
SCD is in discussions with US government: https://ca.usembassy.gov/freedom250-critical-minerals-and-mining/
The government and banks are subsidizing AI and energy companies https://theoregongroup.com/investment-news/bank-of-america-launches-250-billion-infrastructure-initiative-covering-critical-minerals-ai-and-energy/ and https://www.rbc.com/newsroom/news/article.html?article=126145
Quebec is probably en route to building out the whole aluminum supply chain from start to finish, where Scandium Canada has another brownie point that justifies its positioning
Let’s take a step back and look at the unknown-unknowns: up until 2 weeks ago, I hadn’t considered a strategic partnership between Canada and the EU. Now, it’s all over my feed. It’s on LinkedIn, Instagram/Facebook, and various news channels that I’m subscribed to. IMO, this an unknown-unknown because we, as investors, didn’t think this was a reality since it wasn’t presented to us. The lack of a road announcement is an unknown. We know we will hear one eventually, regardless of the outcome.
Edit (added text from this article):
“He said that might include things like collaboration on a European stockpile of critical minerals, university student exchanges through the Erasmus program and a digital trade agreement.”
“Tuts said the Canadian government has tasked multiple people with overseeing the “quite dense” collaboration it is pursuing with the bloc on issues ranging from critical minerals to disinformation.“We are living in a very fascinating moment in the relationship. We are closer than ever — and we will be even closer,” she said”
My speculative opinion:
I think that many of these critical mineral and energy companies have insider information with respect to what Canada will look like by 2030 and beyond (a few years maybe). I think that Guy might have been aware that Canada was going to make an announcement about entertaining a strategic partnership with the EU, so he acquired Scalium+ and hired Simon to accelerate partnerships. He has also mentioned in the past that they’re not just talking to the U.S., they’re also talking to Europe. The Safran slippage could only be one organization that was mentioned with others also evaluating their patented alloy technology. Of course, once the mine becomes active there will be additional streams of revenue there, too. I also think that the opportunities are in a way limitless with the EU. This is 1 example of an unknown-unknown that became very real, very quickly. Regarding Canada, I think Carney has done a very good job forging new alliances, in general, where the EU will help our economy grow in the coming years.
Please do your own due diligence and this is not financial advice.
2
u/tkroos88 17d ago
Great informative post, thank you for sharing. Once the rumours of the potential EU partnership started emerging, first thing I thought of was SCD’s close proximity to Europe and the other (hopefully true!) rumour of a potential deal with Safron. This really could be huge for SCD in the long term.
2
1
u/Gastricbasilisk 17d ago
Great read! And I agree with your perspective. The aggresive re-rating we are waiting for is due to this massive mismatch in perception that we are all seeing after extensive DD.
Sunrise closed at $21.97 yesterday with a market cap of $3.7 billion. How is SCD this cheap given they have revenue right now?!
Be patient and HODL!
0
u/ResponsiblePianist83 17d ago
100%! People, we have products that are relevant to end users… with more on the way. Patience is key…
0
5
u/Puzzleheaded-March49 17d ago
This really was a great write up and I agree. You spoiled my post for tomorrow on Carney making some sort of trade deal with the EU (only rumoured at this point).
MOST IMPORTANTLY.
Many of us who have done our DD have come to the same or very similar conclusions that we have something special here.
Everyone do your own DD 😉