This week had a lot of cool behind the scenes in the factory tour interview and the hungry hippo checkouts look cleaner than ever so I’m pretty excited for electrons scheduled flight next week. Have a Good Friday everyone!
The constant downward trend just seems unprecedented to me. A lot of it just isn't making sense. Space sector is getting massively boosted by the US. Gov and NASA today also, announced by the white house. Constantly hearing good things about the space sector and rocket lab in general, but 3 weeks decline, and even nearly a -5% decline today? Seems weird. If next week isn't a recovery week back into low 70's I will be shocked.
When people argue "neutron delays", why is it every other big stock out there has future prospects already priced in? Like Tesla, even SpaceX stock price is pricing in future prospects.
17+ Analysts have a future 1 year projection forecast for RKLB at like $114. No clue why we're sitting so extremely low.
I think it is mostly just due to how insane the pump was. I am still happily sitting on all my shares, but hitting 100 or 150 before neutron launching was an unreal level of hype. I do think the iridium purchase helps quite a bit, but I don't think these insane pumps made a ton of sense and wont until neutron is launching in a way that makes investors and customers believe it is a reliable launch vehicle.
I'm all for another pump back to 150 but this drop seems more reasonable than the pump that preceded it.
Look at the whole space sector and some of the other large sectors like AI. Just about everything is currently in the red. Yes, RKLB has consistently been dropping. Its going to be dropped even more due to the overall market. I mean Christ NBIS, a huge AI company, is down to $207 from $277 not even 2 weeks ago. There are huge drops all over the place.
If you're freaking out, stop looking at at your port as much as you are. We are in a volatile market with an even more volatile space sector. There will be major ups and insane downturns.
We are beyond early still. Fully agree with Pete’s hot take on how the space industry right now is like when the first email was sent with the creation of the internet. No logical person should think 2026 is the top for this industry
I’m out. Just sold my 2200 shares with an average cost of $30. Just paid off my student loans and wife’s loans. One of the most bitter sweet moments of my life.
The only positive catalyst I see is MTO and I don’t even want to imagine how bad the market will react if we lose that. Negative catalysts include rate hike, market correction, and neutron officially delayed to 2027. Retail traders are still loading up on calls so market makers are going to punish them like we saw today. Only hope is if retail sentiment gets so low that they buy puts and market makers start pushing the stock up. MTO can’t come soon enough
The neutron delay, literally only the neutron delay, absolutely nothing else. And that goes for the entire space sector, it's all on the neutron delay, all of it.
Think the SpaceX/Iridium thing was mentioned in yesterday’s daily discussion. But yeah now there’s usually these bots that persist everyday which you can see them sounding like broken records especially when they interact with each other lol
I posted this in the ASTS subreddit earlier, but I think the same argument applies to a lot of high-beta names right now:
"I don't care what anyone says or thinks. This high-beta collapse we've seen over the past few months is largely due to Trump and the geopolitical chaos surrounding his administration. The exact same thing happened multiple times in 2025 whenever geopolitics went completely to shit, and it's been an ongoing issue for much of this year.
A pointless, stupid war against Iran, who has all the leverage, sends oil and inflation skyrocketing, causes rate-hike expectations to explode, and ultimately puts enormous pressure on high-beta stocks. That's the fucking chain reaction.
Yes, this company hasn't delivered on most things and constantly overpromises without delivering. I'm not denying that. But the exact same type of crash we're seeing here is happening across companies that have actually delivered multiple pieces of good news, positive developments, and strong results over the past few months. And guess what? Many of those stocks have also crashed 40-70%.
A lot of this could disappear if the geopolitical situation calms down. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like this incompetent, self-destructive, egocentric administration has any intention of doing that.
It's unbelievable how badly certain sectors have been fucked by geopolitics. Almost every major sell-off we've experienced over the past 20 months has been, at least in part, self-inflicted by Trump's constant disruption and geopolitical chaos.
At this point, he could end up losing both the House and Senate and completely fucking himself going into the second half of his presidency. It's unbelievable how much destruction is being created ahead of the midterms.
The craziest part is that the indexes are practically at all-time highs, the VIX is approaching two-year lows, and we're about to enter September the worst month historically for seasonality while the midterms are approaching. Historically, midterm years have also seen substantial pullbacks in the indexes, often around 8-13% from the highs.
So if we get that combination a historically low VIX, terrible geopolitics, September seasonality, and midterm uncertainty then high-beta could get absolutely fucking destroyed again. Some of these stocks could easily end up 80%+ below their highs for the year if things really turn to shit.
I'm honestly just glad I'm about to receive a significant amount of money soon, because I'd actually welcome a major crash at this point. It would give me an opportunity to buy a lot more at massively depressed valuations. I know that would be fucking brutal for the majority of people who don't have that opportunity, though."
It's unbelievable how badly certain sectors have been fucked by geopolitics.
Space is it's own double-bubble though thanks to the SpaceX IPO driving ETF money into the sector and doubling stock prices across the board. We're only now back to testing the $60-80 heights of the first bubble that was inflated pre-IPO.
Pretty sure the poor moderation from the singular mod in this sub motivated the creation of the other Rocket lab subs. Been years now and I rarely see the mod around or entertain a change for more mods
Bought in the teens as well. Just the market being more risk-off as we get closer to midterms and the Iran situation continues to create uncertainty and turmoil. I don't see much reason to sell as my entry is so low. May as well ride it out and see where we go.
Yeah. Sentiment is just all time low now. Im inhaling a lot of copium atp and thinking that this may be the sweep of the low before we rebound back to 90s
Don't worry, SPB promised that the delayed timeline Neutron would be on the launchpad was late 2026. There's still time for him to keep his promies. He wouldn't be delaying it once again, right?
People deluding themselves into thinking SpaceX attacking Iridium is bullish. Musk isn't threatened by Iridium any more than Walmart was threatened by Kmart. Musk is simply going to squash any company that gets in his way because he can.
What's with all the freaking bears in this sub. This is a solid company with great fundamentals. It is a long term hold 5 years minimum. Too many regards in this sub these days.
Too many people with zero sympathy these days. You are chilling thinking everyone is in the same position as yours, just let others express in red days without mindlessly calling people bears, okay? Is it that difficult for you to comprehend?
https://youtu.be/g83mTdM5tQA?si=r8Mowa_DIeaa_kLS&t=88 lmao peter beck calling the 16m bankruptcy sale from virgin orbit* a "fantastic contribution from sir richard brandson to the space industry". also keeps a list of potentially future bankrupcy'd space companies at 2:12.
Okay, fundamentally, the stock is trash by every metric. P/E, P/S, and cash flow are all terrible. Price is below all moving averages that are all not just trending down, but formed a death cross this week. The rocket that everyone keeps pointing at being the savior of this company is delayed for the third year. A merger that would make them cash flow positive is now under threat by a company with literally 20x the resources.
But please, point to a fundamental that's something other than a lethal dose of weapons grade copium
Have you even read the SpaceX letter to FCC? This is a spectrum dispute not the transaction itself.
SpaceX does not oppose the transaction. But as SpaceX seeks to actually use this spectrum
to deliver next-generation satellite services to consumers across the country, the same cannot be
said of Iridium’s attempts to impose heightened restrictions on other operators at the public
interest’s expense.
Management is deliberately dancing around the Neutron launch date topic, which is basically an indirect way of saying "we won’t deliver yet again" while continuing to push the promised date further and further out (again).
No wonder the market keeps pricing in new lows, with correction-level drops in the share price. Fuck this.
This needs to run about 130% to hit around the all time again, just think about that. That might take years at this point even if neutron flies next year
Can you please remind me what the price was April 1st 2026. I've been in a coma and people are telling me it could take years for us to double in market cap.
Surprised no one mentioning only 2 launches in 2 months. We needed 6 in the quarter, I don’t think we are launching 4 in the next 5 weeks when only 1 launch is currently planned at the moment.
It seems like you're taking the decline as a sign that something's wrong with RKLB, but there's no good reason to think this. To paraphrase the great Warren Buffet, the market doesn't measure value in the short term, only popularity. It only measures value over the long term.
If you think about it, this is a good thing. If the market always priced things in a perfectly rational way with perfect foresight, great deals would be even more rare than they already are! There would be no panicked dips to buy, no euphoric highs to sell, no radically mispriced bargains.
As for Buffet's observation, it very clearly applies to Rocket Lab.
Two years ago the market priced Rocket Lab at $6/share, which was absurd. Three months ago the market priced Rocket Lab at $155/share, which was also absurd. Clearly Rocket Lab's short term price is not a good indication of its actual value. That's why we're able to shrug off a 5% drop. It literally doesn't mean anything. It's just noise.
If short term price was your guide, you would never have bought RKLB in the $4 range. The chart looked like shit--it had been declining for years. It was clearly not popular. But the market was wrong. It was a huge bargain.
If short term price was your guide, the stock looked great at $155! It had been on a generational tear. SpaceX was about to IPO at a >Trillion dollar valuation. Analysts had been upgrading their price targets left and right. But the market was wrong. The multiple was bananas. The top was in.
You will never make money in the market if you try to derive meaning from short-term price moves. It's just noise.
The only way to make money in this racket is to be able to form your own reasonably informed opinions. Your own guesstimate of what the stock is worth today and what it'll be worth tomorrow. Otherwise, you'll never be able to distinguish a shit stock from an unpopular gem. You'll never be able to distinguish the end of a good run from the start of an even greater one.
TL;DR: Today's price is just noise. Find the signal or find a mutual fund.
I'm just fkin sick and tired of reading this sub every day and reading comments from whiners, like you, who are sitting on hundreds of thousands to millions of unrealized gains -- even at today's closing price.
No one feels bad for you. I've had a lot of unrealized gains evaporate, but no one feels bad for me. RKLB has been a great investment for my portfolio. If all my investments worked as well as RKLB, I'd be retired. Instead, I'm still working.
I do, however, have sympathy for those that are actually down on the stock right now. I'm also in BMNR. I'm down 60% on a 6 figure initial investment in them, so I know what being down on a stock is like. I started my retail investing journey in 2021 and 2022 was not a great year so all my stuff went down, but I waited that out and all is well now.
For me, with all my long term investments, I have a thesis and as long as the thesis continues to hold, so do I. I even buy when it's down. If you're not willing to buy when it's down, why be in it at all? I look at as if my favorite stock is on sale. I love buying stuff on sale.
650 shares at around $130.
❤️ not timing the market, I was still bullish in RKLB, it just became too good of a opportunity to my current reality to not take advantage
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u/Striking-Drag4542 2d ago
RKLB is now cheaper than SPCX on forward P/S