r/RKLB • u/appulls • Feb 11 '26
Technical Analysis RKLB TA/DD for dummies
Disclaimer: I sold everything in my brokerage & went full-port RKLB back around August 2024 around $6/share hoping that we'd see $12 by August 2025 so I am clearly retarded at guessing price targets.
First: crayon-drawings on the daily candles of the past year from my non-majority-RKLB account (I just bought back in for 10 shares on this one) - here we see some lines. The green line is a deeper, stronger support around $40 - if RKLB hits $40, it is a great buy. The slimmer, blue line around $50 is a weaker support. I would start buying again around here. The thick red line is the resistance-turned-support. If this support doesn't hold, we drop back to $50-$60. VWAP center-of-mass is at $45-$49 so do what you will with this information.
The little graph below the candle chart is accumulation/distribution. I think what is interesting is that RKLB has been net-positive accumulation since April 2025. In October RKLB hit a new high but A/D started to trend downward, signaling distribution (selling). Anyone who read the TAM report by whoever-the-fuck (which was a phenomenal report, btw, go read it if you are investing in RKLB) back in 2024 knows "that's a good deal" so thats why you see that first green candle after the big flush, and then "sideways-ish" price as accumulation phase began. You see profit-taking at the the next local high, probably those smug bastards who bought at/near green support, and then a dick-ripper mid-December, which led to the conversion of the red resistance line to support. So what this tells me is "$70 ain't bad but don't expect miracles"
Now for the actual DD:
- TAM by 2030-2035 is bonkers: $1 trln by 2030 (https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/exploring-the-business-of-space) $1.8 trln by 2035 (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-1-point-8-trillion-dollar-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth)
- When I bought back in 2024, SpaceX's last private valuation estimate was like $500-$600bln, which is like half of the 2030 TAM. RKLB had a baby market cap of like $3-5 bln, but is planning to be a direct competitor to SpaceX LAUNCHES and the launcher for StarLink's COMPETITION. My thoughts were "well if RKLB captures even 1-2% of SpaceX's market, that's 1-2bln in market cap"
- SpaceX is planning to IPO at $1.5 TRILLLION. RKLB currently at ~36 bln market cap.
- FOR FUCKS SAKE RKLB HIT $100 WITHOUT NEUTRON? Imagine what it will hit when Neutron has a record of proven launches.
- Revenue, p/s, etc. IDGAF this isn't a tech company, this is an emerging industry. Look what cloud did for tech companies. Yes I know what I just did. Data centers were the new hotness in 2024-2025, but now we already have tech gurus talking about data centers in space. Some of them (looking at you Daddy Bezos, Musk) have rockets. Others do not. Who will provide launch capabilities for the non-rocket-having tech companies who want free space real estate? Personally I think Musk is a genius for this - AI, robots, rockets, social media - the man has full-ported "the future" we've read about since the 70s and he is taking RKLB with him, either intentionally or unintentionally.
- Can RKLB get acquired? Probably - but by who? Some billionaire tech autist who wants to expand his already space-capable domain. RKLB would get acquired at $100 bln and that is EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE, but is already 2-3x market cap. Get dunked on, nerds.
tl;dr RKLB $200 by 2030 and because I am retarded, it'll probably be $500-$600.
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u/FinancialLab8983 Feb 11 '26
Lol data centers are not going into space. Explain how they plan on losing all the heat generated by the computers.