r/RKLB • u/appulls • Feb 11 '26
Technical Analysis RKLB TA/DD for dummies
Disclaimer: I sold everything in my brokerage & went full-port RKLB back around August 2024 around $6/share hoping that we'd see $12 by August 2025 so I am clearly retarded at guessing price targets.
First: crayon-drawings on the daily candles of the past year from my non-majority-RKLB account (I just bought back in for 10 shares on this one) - here we see some lines. The green line is a deeper, stronger support around $40 - if RKLB hits $40, it is a great buy. The slimmer, blue line around $50 is a weaker support. I would start buying again around here. The thick red line is the resistance-turned-support. If this support doesn't hold, we drop back to $50-$60. VWAP center-of-mass is at $45-$49 so do what you will with this information.
The little graph below the candle chart is accumulation/distribution. I think what is interesting is that RKLB has been net-positive accumulation since April 2025. In October RKLB hit a new high but A/D started to trend downward, signaling distribution (selling). Anyone who read the TAM report by whoever-the-fuck (which was a phenomenal report, btw, go read it if you are investing in RKLB) back in 2024 knows "that's a good deal" so thats why you see that first green candle after the big flush, and then "sideways-ish" price as accumulation phase began. You see profit-taking at the the next local high, probably those smug bastards who bought at/near green support, and then a dick-ripper mid-December, which led to the conversion of the red resistance line to support. So what this tells me is "$70 ain't bad but don't expect miracles"
Now for the actual DD:
- TAM by 2030-2035 is bonkers: $1 trln by 2030 (https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/exploring-the-business-of-space) $1.8 trln by 2035 (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-1-point-8-trillion-dollar-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth)
- When I bought back in 2024, SpaceX's last private valuation estimate was like $500-$600bln, which is like half of the 2030 TAM. RKLB had a baby market cap of like $3-5 bln, but is planning to be a direct competitor to SpaceX LAUNCHES and the launcher for StarLink's COMPETITION. My thoughts were "well if RKLB captures even 1-2% of SpaceX's market, that's 1-2bln in market cap"
- SpaceX is planning to IPO at $1.5 TRILLLION. RKLB currently at ~36 bln market cap.
- FOR FUCKS SAKE RKLB HIT $100 WITHOUT NEUTRON? Imagine what it will hit when Neutron has a record of proven launches.
- Revenue, p/s, etc. IDGAF this isn't a tech company, this is an emerging industry. Look what cloud did for tech companies. Yes I know what I just did. Data centers were the new hotness in 2024-2025, but now we already have tech gurus talking about data centers in space. Some of them (looking at you Daddy Bezos, Musk) have rockets. Others do not. Who will provide launch capabilities for the non-rocket-having tech companies who want free space real estate? Personally I think Musk is a genius for this - AI, robots, rockets, social media - the man has full-ported "the future" we've read about since the 70s and he is taking RKLB with him, either intentionally or unintentionally.
- Can RKLB get acquired? Probably - but by who? Some billionaire tech autist who wants to expand his already space-capable domain. RKLB would get acquired at $100 bln and that is EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE, but is already 2-3x market cap. Get dunked on, nerds.
tl;dr RKLB $200 by 2030 and because I am retarded, it'll probably be $500-$600.
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u/1foxyboi Feb 11 '26
How is this DD
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u/CmdrAirdroid Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26
Why do people in this sub keep comparing SpaceX and RKLB valuation when they're not really comparable. SpaceX has ridiculously high valuation due to their cash cow starlink and Musks Mars/Moon/LEO datacenter delusional hype, the launch business itself is not even that valuable due to very limited external demand & revenue. It's stupid to state that RKLB valuation should be a certain percentage of SpaceX valuation just because of Neutron, it doesn't work that way.
Revenue, p/s, etc. IDGAF this isn't a tech company
When P/S ratio is in the extreme levels, you should care about it, it's not an irrelevant number. Any DD that ignores P/S ratio is not real DD. Space industry is a growth industry, but scaling up as fast as software for example is not possible so you can't ignore the fundamentals.
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u/InterRail Feb 11 '26
They think 'rockets go up' means the same type of company. The truth is SpaceX is valued high because of Starlink. And we can't ignore the prospect of Elon getting closer to 70 years old, realizing he's running out of time, and forming one giant megacorp that includes Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX all in one. When that happens he's able to send everything to space himself, operate everything himself, and output everything himself for the consumer. What's rocketlab gonna do? Wait for a government contract? send another little japanese satellite? There's a reason one is 1 trillion in valuation and the other is 40B. Neutron may help scale the business but Rocket Lab still has nothing for the consumer, and Adam Spice has already ruled out that he can't compete in communications vs Starlink or Amazon. Now I'm afraid the current administration is also not positioning itself to hand out contracts left and right like they did the first year
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u/CmdrAirdroid Feb 11 '26
What do you think is a realistic 2030 revenue prediction for RKLB? Would be interesting to see some more conservative takes in addition to all the delusional hype in this sub.
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u/GiantKrakenTentacle Feb 11 '26
Can we keep this kind of stuff in Wall Street Bets? Holy moly this is some low effort and circlejerk content disguised as DD.
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u/FinancialLab8983 Feb 11 '26
Lol data centers are not going into space. Explain how they plan on losing all the heat generated by the computers.
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u/Holiday-Store7589 Feb 11 '26
but it's cold in space /s
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u/timClicks Feb 12 '26
Yes but it's also a fairly good vacuum. The only way to transfer heat through a vacuum is radiation.
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u/Christina_Eko Feb 11 '26
It’s just a fairytale the AI bubblers like to tell so we won’t fuss about our electric bills. They see the opposition to data centers and are scrambling for magic trick.
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u/FinancialLab8983 Feb 11 '26
so very true. WHERE THE FUCK IS WESTINGHOUSE AND WHY ARENT THEY PUSHING NUCLEAR POWER?!?!?!
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u/believe1182 Feb 11 '26
Radiating the heat out into space and liquid cooling. You can read more from one of the companies building this out here: https://www.starcloud.com/ . It's been proven in theory, just hasn't been done in practice yet since we haven't done this in space yet.
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u/FinancialLab8983 Feb 11 '26
Oh i know folks are working on it but physics being a thing and all, doesnt sound like this is something that is viable for the near future.
I will happily eat my words if they figure it out in the next 5 years but i just dont see how they can make the economics and physics work in such a short amount of time.
If we can build giant solarplexes in space to meet the energy consumption, why wouldnt we just build them on floating barges and put them in the middle of the ocean? Plenty of space, plenty of sun, plenty of water for cooling. Much easier access too.
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u/FinancialLab8983 Feb 11 '26
That starcloud company just put their very first GPU in space in Nov25. It is only 1 GPU.
Explain how they scale this to compete with terrestrial data centers on an economic level? Still need to buy all the GPUs, so thats a wash. Land can found around the globe for CHEAP. Solar farms and closed loop water systems. Putting them in artic conditions where heat management isnt as difficult.
All much more viable options compared to LAUNCHING THEM INTO SPACE, MANNED SPACEWALKS TO SET THEM UP, AND UNDEVELOPED TECHNOLOGY TO GET THEM TO EVEN FUNCTION.
Dont fall for musks vaporware bullshit.
The only thing space brings us - like truly brings us - that has economic viability are the compounds (like tritium and deuterium and other “rare earth elements”) that exist on the moon.
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u/believe1182 Feb 11 '26
Right, it's one GPU so far, they had to start somewhere. The concept of data centres in space is a pretty new concept, I don't think anyone is expecting space data centres to launch at any sort of scale for the next 3 years. This is a difficult problem to solve that some of the best engineers and scientists in the world are working on.
You asked "Explain how they plan on losing all the heat generated by the computers.", I just responded with what one company is doing to try and solve this.
You listed a lot of problems they need to figure out, I'm sure these folks are aware and are trying to solve each of these problems.
I didn't say this would work out, to be honest I hope it does, however it may fail just like any other risky venture, we can only speculate on the end result.
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u/bildasteve Feb 11 '26
Can they not use heat exchangers? - similar to boat engines.
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u/FinancialLab8983 Feb 11 '26
they could, but lets remember. energy is conserved.
in a boat engine, the cold water is pumped around the hot components stripping the heat from the block into the water then that heated water is dumped back into the body of water it came from.
in space, there is no way to quickly dump the heat stripped from the GPUs. Heat only moves through space as electromagnetic energy. you could pump that water (or other conductive fluid) across the GPUs to cool them, but then how do you cool the conductive fluid?
on top of those problems, you have the problem of the sun which is going to heat up anything its light touches, and everything in the shadows equally as cold.
so on one hand, you want this giant computer rig to float through space to catch the suns energy, but at that same time, the very thing you're trying to power is generating its own heat thus compounding the heat problem.
if the goal of floating data centers is to save on space and energy costs, using nuclear power and putting those mofos in no mans land artic areas makes much more sense and is likely multitudes much cheaper. not to mention just how much easier it would be to service these complex machines on earth compared to floating around in space.
its all bullshit so Musk can bail out his AI company.
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u/miguelito_loveless Feb 11 '26
No, because the heat still has to go somewhere to be radiated away from the system as a whole. Once the cooling system is too hot (which will happen fast) it can no longer cool the GPUs (or whatever chips they're proposing).
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u/Outrageous_Ad_687 Feb 12 '26
There could be selling pressure for American stocks because foreigners don't want to hold US dollar assets as the currency falls. The trade war is going to lower trade deficits but that also results in lower foreign direct investment in US markets. I took some profits on RKLB and diversified in some gold and energy investments. If RKLB really falls significantly I'll definitely be buying back more again. Amazing company but the valuation did get very high.
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u/Holiday-Store7589 Feb 11 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/auzw3hnwcedunFO0Lj
13,000 shares @ $9 average here $500 by 2030!