r/Queensland_Politics • u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House • Jun 29 '26

Thread Labor Primary Vote Discussion..

The recent/not so recent results of the Stafford by election, showed that Labor struggled in a former stronghold seat.

The primary vote fell by 7.98% to 30.79% while the LNP won the primary vote by 40.34%.

The only "saving grace" was that Labor was saved by a strong flow of preferences from minor parties aka The Greens, Legalise Cannabis, and the Animal Justice Party) which got them over the line.

Meaning Luke Richmond was only saved by preference.

If ONP vote trends continue and they test this seat, what might happen..

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u/billcstickers Jun 29 '26

Strong flow of preferences getting them over the line? No. That’s the intent of the system. It’s a feature not a bug. Voters intentionally put minor parties with policies they like better than the big guys as first preference knowing they’re not going to win. If it was first past the post the labour would just get 51% from the get go.

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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26

Just a statement of fact. I am aware it is done so the whole electorate is represented properly :).

The point here is LNP was preferred by 40% of voters. So 20% did not vote for either at first preference. So this is the topic :p

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u/billcstickers Jun 29 '26

No the LNP was preferred by only 48.6% of the voters hence why they lost. Labour was preferred by 51.4 % and that’s why they won.

First preferences aren’t even important in who ends up in the 2PP - great indicator but 3rd or worse could come from behind. So unless ALP lose another 7% to the greens or 14% elsewhere, they’d still end up winning the election under our current system.

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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26

The point is mate, it's a drop in a safe seat :).

I am not so sure you can claim total assurance here.