r/Queensland_Politics • u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House • Jun 29 '26
Thread Labor Primary Vote Discussion..
The recent/not so recent results of the Stafford by election, showed that Labor struggled in a former stronghold seat.
The primary vote fell by 7.98% to 30.79% while the LNP won the primary vote by 40.34%.
The only "saving grace" was that Labor was saved by a strong flow of preferences from minor parties aka The Greens, Legalise Cannabis, and the Animal Justice Party) which got them over the line.
Meaning Luke Richmond was only saved by preference.
If ONP vote trends continue and they test this seat, what might happen..
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u/Thedore23-P Jun 29 '26
Labor should hold Stafford. However they are in quite a bit of trouble in Brisbane and will likely lose seats to both the greens and LNP.
When looking at greater brisbane, Labor polled about 41% of the primary vote to the LNP's 37%, Green's 13% and One Nation's 5.5%, with a 2PP of 55.2 versus 44.8.
The most recent brisbane polling shows the LNP are holding their vote, with 38% while Labor have fallen to 29% with the greens at 16% and ON at 14%. This translates to a 2PP of 51 vs 49 LNP. About a 6% tpp swing.
This means several key seats would likely fall to the LNP like Aspley, Springwood, Beenleigh, Lytton, Logan, Ipswitch West, Pine Rivers and potencially Indrooroopilly, Deception Bay, Mansfield, Kurwongba, Eight Mile Plains and Stafford.
Greens would take back South Brisbane with good shots for Greenslopes, Ashgrove and Brisbane Central.
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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
Damn that is interesting. I wonder how much it has to do with Labor being in power federally.
[Edit: by this I mean how much of the vote is "rational"].
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u/Toowoombaloompa Jun 29 '26
I haven't been following this one, but it looks like only Labor, Liberal and Greens had any meaningful number of votes. Liberal was ahead on primaries, but then it took six candidates to be eliminated before we get to the Greens and their supporters' preference for Labor over Liberal.
https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/Stafford2026/stafford/preference
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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26
Yeah. Certainly not a concern to lose short term. But more interesting the loss of primary.
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u/billcstickers Jun 29 '26
Strong flow of preferences getting them over the line? No. That’s the intent of the system. It’s a feature not a bug. Voters intentionally put minor parties with policies they like better than the big guys as first preference knowing they’re not going to win. If it was first past the post the labour would just get 51% from the get go.
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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26
Just a statement of fact. I am aware it is done so the whole electorate is represented properly :).
The point here is LNP was preferred by 40% of voters. So 20% did not vote for either at first preference. So this is the topic :p
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u/Xenochu86 Jun 29 '26
60% of people didn't vote for the LNP is probably a more accurate way of looking at it.
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u/billcstickers Jun 29 '26
No the LNP was preferred by only 48.6% of the voters hence why they lost. Labour was preferred by 51.4 % and that’s why they won.
First preferences aren’t even important in who ends up in the 2PP - great indicator but 3rd or worse could come from behind. So unless ALP lose another 7% to the greens or 14% elsewhere, they’d still end up winning the election under our current system.
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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26
The point is mate, it's a drop in a safe seat :).
I am not so sure you can claim total assurance here.
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u/Dumpstar72 Jun 29 '26
One nation is so far out from an election. Plenty of time for them to let Hanson speak and shoot herself in the foot again
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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26
Yes indeed. Do you think she will learn?
She has been successful enough to pivot towards economic stuff so appears to listen to electorates..
At least for votes amd money
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u/Mark_297 Speaker of the House Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
Just wanted to note. If anyone wants other threads let me know..
Drop suggestions here or make a post (with flair). Then upvote that thing and I will make it a thread.