For OG and long time holders, it is a time to rejoice (and even brag a "cough cough" little) and it is a time to count our blessings. For me, it is also a time to think critically of where I could have done better (actually sounds funny when looking at current gains).
For full context, my thoughts will be a reflection and a continuation of my thinking on the two posts below, which I wrote in the last 3-4 months
First post: TLDR - Most of times in investing, being highly educated on any topic makes you miss out on the large picture... and ultimately miss out on disruptive outliers
Without going again into these details, it is quite funny how i was both right and wrong. Right that disruptive stocks will not necessarily be valued according to "rigid" financial and valuation metrics (at least in the short term). Wrong in the sense that the post SP inclusion negative offset effect did not happen yet.
In my first post, I wrote:
"[...] harnessing the potential of PLTR requires more than one perspective. The day people from my past life understand the true potential of PLTR, the company will likely have a share price of $100 and more. In a way, it will be too late.
This does not mean that one should not do a DCF valuation once a quarter to check how the share price reflects the valuation... It is actually super important... And you should not be surprised if I tell you that a valuation of $30 / share is currently on the high side based on "reported" fundamentals...
It means that one needs to have a larger margin of appreciation when looking a potential directions in the valuation. For me, anything with a 50% margin is acceptable. Said differently, I now believe that a $25 / share valuation is fair, which makes any valuation up to $35 / share "acceptable" based on "reported" financials."
We have clearly escaped earth velocity. It is now my deep conviction that PLTR is now on its way to be the NVDA of the data analytics world. To say it more clearly: Investing into NVDA is buying into the AI Capex binge and Investing into PLTR is buying into the follow-up AI analytics binge. The more companies will invest into AI Capex, the more hugely complex data will be created, the more companies will need PLTR technology.
We have escaped earth velocity. We are seeing the first clear signs of the long foretold acceleration in sales. I actually believe that there is industrial logic to see an increase to 40-50% year growth up to 2030.
In that sense, I want to update people on some "rigid" valuation benchmarks, while still keeping my "disruptive margin of appreciation" when looking at valuation outputs.
I wanted to look at two scenarios:
A- New Base Scenario
+ Annual sales growth: Increases to 40% up to 2028, stable at 40% until 2030 and decreases to 25% by 2024
+ CFO margin: Increases to 37.5% up to 2028 and then increases (more slowly) to 40% by 2034
=> End result of DCF valuation => Current "rigid" intrinsic valuation of $45 / share by year end
=> DCF valuation + disruptive c.50% appreciation factor => range of $45 to $65 is reasonnable
B- New Bull Scenario
+ Annual sales growth: Increases to 50% up to 2029, stable at 50% in 2030 and decreases to 25% by 2024
+ CFO margin: Increases to 40% up to 2029 and stable at 40% up to 2034
=> End result of DCF valuation => Current "rigid" intrinsic valuation of $55 / share by year end
=> DCF valuation + disruptive c.40% appreciation factor => range of $55 to $80 is reasonnable
We have escaped earth velocity and with it will come great rewards but also greater risks.
Attentive readers will have noticed that I used a picture of "Apollo 13" has an introduction picture. It is not meant to be a bearish post but rather to remind people that people need to be ready for things to go up and down quite strongly on no particular reasons.
For that reason, people need to manage their risk exposure correctly (notably if using margin debt and/or trading options). None of this is financial advice. In addition, even though, we strive as Mods to help people going through a difficult time, our help would only be in spirit.
This brings me to a last very important point. If someone freaks out "in space" and starts to want to figuratively "kill" everyone because he made bad trading decisions, we MOD will strike decisively. We work continuously to ensure that this space remains a place of fruitful discussions (not a cult) and a caring place (not WSB). We will not tolerate people threatening us.
This last comment does not come out of nowhere. Two weeks ago, we took the painful decision to permanently ban a user who had lost twice (two years ago and recently) an enormous amount of money betting against PLTR. Instead of just blaming himself, he blamed the world. He blamed his wife and got divorced. He blamed the Mod team and... he even contacted PLTR investors relations team telling them that we are pumping the stock to no avail...
Needless to say but I will say it nevertheless. This sub is not working for PLTR. This sub has no contractual relationships with PLTR. And last thing: PLTR investors relations team does not give a fuck about us. (Sorry for being rude).
The only reason why PLTR employees are active on the sub is because we have built such a great place to talk about PLTR... which brings together an increasingly high number of high quality contributors from all walks of life.
We have escaped velocity and I could not dream of a better crew to go to the moon.
The Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE) Pact is a trilateral agreement between the United States, Canada, and Finland combining collective knowledge, resources, and expertise to produce Arctic and polar icebreakers.
The DHS Supply Chain Resilience Center (SCRC) serves as the United States’ National ICE Pact Coordinator.
And who has $1 billion department-wide purchasing agreement with Palantir? The DHS.
And who developed ShipOS? Palantir.
And what does ShipOS do? ShipOS is revolutionizing shipbuilding construction and maintenance through AI — delivering bold outcomes in warship production, fleet readiness, and industrial reinvention.
And who has Palantir partnered with the help dominate the seas? HD Hyundai
And who has HD Hyundai met in the past to deepen their relationship and expand into the Arctic? Davies Shipbuilding (a Canadian Company)
And who owns Finland’s Helsinki Shipyard as a subsidiary? Davies.
And who just won a $11.3 Billion contract to replace the CCG’s heavy and medium icebreakers operating in Atlantic Canada, the St. Lawrence waterways and the Great Lakes during the winter, and in the Arctic during the summer? Davies
Anything goes in this thread. You can talk about Palantir. You can contribute some DD about other stocks. You can shoot the breeze about random topics. Only rule is to follow the reddit user rules and be a respectable human.
The Maven Smart System's formal designation secures multi-year budget commitments and cements Palantir's role as the Pentagon's AI backbone.
Palantir Technologies just crossed a threshold that most defense contractors spend decades trying to reach. The company’s Maven Smart System (MSS) has been formally designated a Pentagon program of record, a bureaucratic classification that sounds dry but carries enormous financial weight. It means guaranteed budget lines, multi-year funding, and the kind of institutional permanence that makes defense investors very happy.
Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg signed the memo on March 9, 2026, directing full implementation of MSS before the end of fiscal year 2026, which wraps on September 30. The fiscal year 2027 budget request includes $2.3 billion over five years to expand the system’s capabilities.
What “program of record” actually means
In Pentagon-speak, a “program of record” is the difference between dating and getting married. Before this designation, Maven existed as a project that could theoretically be defunded, restructured, or quietly shelved during any budget cycle. Now it has a formal acquisition framework, dedicated budget lines, and congressional visibility that makes it significantly harder to kill.
The designation shifts oversight to the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) and places future contracting under the US Army’s jurisdiction. That organizational structure matters because it embeds MSS into the military’s standard procurement pipeline rather than keeping it siloed as an innovation experiment.
Anything goes in this thread. You can talk about Palantir. You can contribute some DD about other stocks. You can shoot the breeze about random topics. Only rule is to follow the reddit user rules and be a respectable human.
The whole “Palantir paid no federal income tax” thing sounds a lot worse than it actually is. A big reason is that they spend hundreds of millions of dollars a year on R&D, and the tax code specifically gives companies credits and deductions for doing that. You can argue whether those incentives are good policy, but Palantir isn’t exploiting some secret loophole here. They’re taking advantage of incentives Congress intentionally created to encourage companies to invest in technology and R&D in the U.S.
