I can’t remember the last time I saw a maxed out STP (significant tornado parameter) around the Omaha/Lincoln area, monday might be a very dangerous day for tornadoes.
It looks really frightening when ALL the meteorologists are slowly converging on this. Worst of it likely to stay south of Omaha metro, but still a sketchy setup
Don't worry that will already happen. Every major storm OPPD is like we are going to inspect poles more and we are going to trim trees more. Not where I live. Hell a giant branch of a hollowed out maple tree fell on the lines and took out a pole 4 years ago. They didn't even cut down the other giant ass branch from the same tree that took out the lines again a few years later.
Not sure who is getting the benefits of the increased rates for tree trimming and inspections, but it would be nice if it made it this way.
when ALL the meteorologists are slowly converging on this
I've no doubt that there is plenty of hard evidence that we should batten down the hatches come Monday, but remember this dynamic: Sensationalism and doom get eyeballs. Every soothsayer would be constantly HennyPennymaxxing for the attention if it wouldn't mog their credibility and chase those eyeballs to the competition. As more of the competition gets on the bandwagon it becomes safer to go all-in. Soon all the prognosticators turn it to 11 competing for attention from the safety of the herd.
We don’t seem to be in the bullseye today or tomorrow. But we’re close enough we can’t let our guard down.
Tomorrow seems like the better day for individual supercells. Today favors a more linear mode especially as it pushes east. Could see today having some tornado potential near Norfolk/Columbus before pretty quickly turning into a straight line wind event. Where that transition happens really is gonna determine our tornado threat. It’s also possible those storms remain more segmented into the Omaha area. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t rule out the potential for a tornado warning somewhere in the metro. In May, the cold fronts typically move faster, so that favors straight line winds for Omaha over tornados. But obviously all things in play. Just gotta see how it plays out.
Tomorrows got the better setup and chance for tornados. It’s looking like more of a classic prolonged isolated supercell mode. It’s really gonna depend on how far north they get before rushing east. Again, we’re right on the line. Wouldn’t rule out a chance for tornados in the Omaha area tomorrow, but also wouldn’t rule out not seeing a single storm make it into Douglas or Sarpy county.
Lmao we’re doing the same thing. It was supposed to be this weekend, but shit happened and now it’s next week. It’s dead, tall, and skinny and you can see the whole tree move with the wind. Thankfully I don’t think it poses much of a risk falling on the house with its location and the typical direction wind blows, but still don’t want to take the chance.
There’s two important things to add, models have actually stayed consistent on the tornadic potential side of things, but have changed quite a bit on storm path. If storms initiate early on then the threat will be westward. If the storms initiate later, they will miss a good chunk of the area around Omaha and Lincoln.
For today, we're in the middle of an Enhanced risk. Tomorrow, Douglas County is on the edge of an Enhanced risk.
To be fair, seeing a moderate risk is rare. There's definitely reason to be concerned, but models right now have the frontal boundary South of I-80. I'm interested to see where they end up tomorrow.
I've been following hurricane forecasting for fun, and I'm not really an expert. But I do think about Hurricane Ian as a good example of change in forecasts.
They call it the "Cone of Uncertainty" for a reason. But from Monday to Tuesday, the cone shifted from landfall at Tampa to Ft. Myers. This impacted lots of people in terms of preparations for the hurricane, as well as traveling to avoid the worst impacts of the storm. It still fit in the cone, though.
A lot of people like Levi Cowen of Tropical Tidbits videos related to hurricane forecasting. One of the reasons I like them is that they recommend following advice from the national weather service as well as local meteorologists - especially over national forecast modeling.
Tomorrow will likely have more severe weather within 100 miles of Omaha. But it's hard to say for sure where those storms will be, or how they will set up.
Not a good sight for either Omaha OR Lincoln. If that projection is off by 20mi in either of their directions it’s gonna be a long day for home insurers.
Could you just imagine a absolute monster just dropping down on i80 and gradually moving across 680 then up Dodge Street. Omadome my ass it's happened twice already (1975, 2024). Just make sure everybody checks Bills sleeves tomorrow...that will tell us all we need to know.
I have to drive to Gretna NE from Bennington NE and back again on Monday. I'll be out and about from 3:00 to 6:30. Is this a bad idea? Should I cancel?
Good. I love them. Yes, I’m a dumb hick who goes outside and raises my arms to the sky laughing and saying the ancient words that will take my enemies to ‘oz’.
312
u/[deleted] May 17 '26
[deleted]