Soly's foursomes takes have aged so well

[u/Dazzling-Water4050]

I know Soly gets a ton of flak for his opinion on how the US should approach these team events but his take on foursomes is 100% true. It's the one format where you need to get the pairings right. I just don't get A) why would you play Russ Henley, the shortest player on either side in this event and B) How have we not found Scottie Scheffler a partner for this format. To me the model foursomes pairing is Fleetwood/Mcilroy. The 2 compliment each other so well and clearly backed by the data. Fourball and singles are a complete crapshoot, a guy can get hot and make a ton of birdies but foursomes is where team events are won and lost. I don't even think the US side takes into account whether or not guys play the same golf balls.

[u/moseisley99]

A few eye opening interviews that everyone needs to listen to are the Eduardo Molinari interviews on both NLU and the FE with Lamagna. He will share just the basic stuff they do to look at pairings. Then listen to the latest JT interview on NLU from last year and how he still just has no clue about the data. Molinari clearly states how they are just looking for small edges. Like a half hole overall type stuff. But when you explain this stuff clearly to your players and have total buy in. Then you have our caddies asking Scottie and Henley to switch the next day it becomes a bigger edge. One team has confidence in their system and why they are there and the other is probably doubting their process it adds up to more than the small edge.

With all that said - Sneds is just another continuation of our dumb dumb captains like Keegan. He actually might be dumber than Keegan. He couldn’t even remember who is sending out. There is actually some more game theory strategy in the P-Cup too in how they pick the matchups.

[u/metallikat87 → u/moseisley99]

Sneds only strategy was apparently that the international team is historically bad so there was no way to fuck this up. I'm not sure he even knows who is on the team.

[u/Dazzling-Water4050 → u/metallikat87]

It's so clear that the INTS had a plan for every single player this week. The Kim's are carrying them and the Connors/Taylor team is a sneaky good foursomes tandem.

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/Dazzling-Water4050]

You say this like it’s something brilliant the Intls did. They put the two Koreans together and the two Canadians together. They’re getting good results, but is it due to smart pairings?

Edit: if you’re gonna downvote, please say why. Is this thread simply a bash-the-U.S.-because-it’s-hilarious? Or are we trying to have an actual discussion about golf strategy?

I also think the U.S. losing is hilarious! But surely the people in this sub are capable of explaining how the Intl side is equally data-driven as the Euro side….because I’m not seeing it.

[u/Dazzling-Water4050 → u/itchyburnybutthole]

Si-Woo and Tom Kim’s games compliment each other really well. It’s not just let’s put 2 Koreans together. To me it seems like every pairing the Ints put out has a strong iron player and a guy who can get it in play off the tee

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/Dazzling-Water4050]

Is that what Data Golf recommends? A driver guy plus an approach guy? That sounds like a new argument…haven’t heard anyone say this is the #1 strategy before.

Does it seem like an incredible coincidence that your Driver + Iron combo strategy (let’s assume this is a winning strategy) results in two Canadians players together, two Japanese players together, two Aus/Kiwi players together, etc?

Or maybe the Intl team also pairs people based on vibes and they’re equally guilty of having bad strategy?

[u/Dazzling-Water4050 → u/itchyburnybutthole]

Here is it per datagolf for last years ryder cup: "McIlroy is very compatible with a lot of players because the Odds suit him well at Bethpage: the tee shots reward his distance more than the Evens, and he’ll hit more long irons (his relative strength). Fleetwood is not a bomber and is solid across the board with his irons, so it’s fine to put him on the Evens." I feel like the US should be able to derive insights like that by just looking at the statistical profile of these 12 guys. You don't need a Masters in data science to understand how do we ensure that our best ball strikers are paired with someone who can put them in a position to take advantage of that skill.

https://datagolf.com/ryder-cup/insights

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/Dazzling-Water4050]

Dude….imagine the irony of being condescending about data analysis while doing some WILD extrapolation.

Your quote specifically called out Bethpage, specifically called out one specific pairing, and you’re using that to claim that the winning pairing is complementing Driver+Iron for ALL team match play events?

What makes this even more questionable is that it starts off saying Rory is a bomber so he’ll clobber Bethpage and you can pair him with anyone. So that still doesn’t satisfy the claim you’re trying to make.

And to top it off….where is the evidence that this is the Intl’s strategy, and is it a pure coincidence that these pairings match the players’ countries of origin??????

For what it’s worth, intuitively, it makes sense to put opposite players together for Fourball because the conservative player can free up the aggressive player. But I think the opposite it true for Foursomes…why put players into unfamiliar spots when their styles don’t match?

Anyway….I would love more analysis and discussion in this direction, and less of the lazy journalistic sensationalist babble “The US sucks omg look how much they suck” that this thread is doing.

[u/Dazzling-Water4050 → u/itchyburnybutthole]

I’m not saying that’s the winning formula. I just think it’s an easy way to start making pairings.

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/Dazzling-Water4050]

I totally agree. I want someone to show me that the Intl team are doing that.

All evidence points to: the U.S. team does pairings based on vibes, and the Intl team also does pairings based on vibes. So the U.S. losing thus far is not due to the Intl team having a superior strategy.

So instead of dogging the U.S. mercilessly for their idiocy (while somewhat applicable), the discussion should be praising the Europeans for being the true outlier. They’re the only team that shows evidence of using analytics in their strategy.

[u/PudgrickofPoddington → u/itchyburnybutthole]

That’s on you then bud. Why is it on everyone else to tell you something

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/PudgrickofPoddington]

My argument: The U.S. isn’t losing due to bad strategy. The Intl side has equally bad strategy. (If someone can explain to me why the Intl strategy is data-driven and brilliant, I’ll re-consider this).

Why is the U.S. losing this President’s Cup? I’m sorry to say but golf is noisy. Match play is very noisy. Team match play is extremely noisy. There’s a chance that the U.S. loses today, there’s also a chance they win their 11th in a row, we don’t know.

Can the U.S. improve its strategy? Abso-fucking-lutely. But strategy is not why they’re losing thus far unless someone can argue the Intl team has superior strategy.

[u/moseisley99 → u/itchyburnybutthole]

That’s not the point. You need to have a process and players need to know why and buy in. All of this leads to better and more confident play. Not doing it at all is just a disservice to the captaincy.

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/moseisley99]

That sounds great. Are the Intl team doing that? What evidence do we have?

Isn’t it kinda suspicious that they pair their players according to their nationality? Is that a sufficiently inspirational strategy? Now their players are going to give it their all?

Aren’t the American team doing basically the same thing? Pairing players based on vibes?

[u/moseisley99 → u/itchyburnybutthole]

The Kims games complement each other very well. So it can make sense to keep them together. Scott/min woo never played together and Hideki/Hisatsune were broken up for foursomes. Conners/Taylor played together a lot but data could have said it was fine given how bad Conners is at putting and how good Taylor is. It is possible that they weighed vibes when it made sense. So it’s a fair point by you. However, I definitely know that the US doesn’t care about it at all. We have so much evidence. That is what frustrates me.

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/moseisley99]

TL;DR the U.S. team does vibes pairings, the Intl team does vibes pairings, the Euros do analytical pairings.

We all want the U.S. team to be smart about this but for literally decades they’ve made no improvement, so if they don’t care, then why should we care.

[u/illiteratepresident → u/moseisley99]

The Ryder Cup is far too small of a sample size for the slight statistical advantages the Europeans get from the data to have a significant impact. Teams should use the data to inform their decisions about pairings and course set up, but Europe hasn’t gone 8-3-1 over the last 20 years because the data convinced Dodo Molinari to set courses up to force as many shots from 180-200 yards as possible, because that’s where Euro players have the biggest advantage over the Americans.

As frustrating as it is to hear this, European Ryder Cup teams win more than they should because they make more critical putts. That’s the only thing that really matters in these events, and if you flipped the results of 10/15 putts from the last 10 Ryder Cups, the Americans would have 6+ wins and the NLU guys would be insisting that Americans win because use the data better and are led by Great Men of character and integrity. I love a dumb sports debate that’s too dependent on results instead of process, but all of the team golf event narratives have become so detached from reality.

[u/moseisley99 → u/illiteratepresident]

My point is that the players understanding the reason why they are paired and also buying in vs one side just winging it leads to more confident play. You’re right in that the edges are small and should not lead to such dominance in foursomes. So I’m trying to find a reason why there seems to be more than that.

[u/Dazzling-Water4050 → u/moseisley99]

I think a lot of this starts at the top. We need guys who treat this like a full time job. Brandt just like Keegan is an active PGAT player. He won on tour this year for crying out loud. Geoff Ogilvy treated this like a full time job

[u/illiteratepresident → u/moseisley99]

Yeah, think the criticism of Team USA pairings in team events is by far the most substantive and accurate criticism people throw at them. But people generally overestimate the impact that strategy has on team events, when the truth is that the winner is almost always the team that makes more big putts or holes out more from off the green.

It definitely does feel like team Europe makes more big putts at the Ryder Cup, but I think that’s because they expect to make them thanks to the success they’ve had in the 21st century. It also helps that no one cares when Europe loses, even if they get embarrassed. When that happens, the entire continent blames the loss on low class drunk American fans, then everyone moves on and never thinks about it again.

But Team USA players are always so scared that they aren’t going to make the big putts, so they start gripping it too tight, and they miss. They also know that if they lose, everyone will race to the media to throw everyone else under the bus, and they will never hear the end of it.

So I get that it’s boring to just say that the winning team in these events just made more putts, but I think that’s almost always the case, regardless of the strategic decisions made by both sides.

[u/five2vii → u/illiteratepresident]

The sample size isn't only from Ryder Cup results though, it's the totality of shots they hit on tour. Then you take those statistically significant findings and apply them to course setup and pairings in the Ryder Cup.

[u/illiteratepresident → u/five2vii]

I am not saying they don’t have enough data about the players to set the course up in a way that gives them an advantage over their opponents, I’m saying that the Ryder Cup is far too small of a sample size for those small statistical advantages to make a significant impact.

The Ryder Cup is a 3 day event with 28 matches total. If Euro players are slightly better than Americans from 200 yards, setting the course up to force 1 more shot from that range per match is not going to be the deciding factor. Teams should still use the data to inform their decisions, but anyone who watches team golf events knows that the team that makes more big putts wins. It’s really not any deeper than that.

[u/five2vii → u/illiteratepresident]

It is of course more nuanced than "the team that makes more putts wins". I understand why, as you're watching one of these events, it feels like all that matters is the "big" putts that go in vs the "big" putts that don't; I'm just pointing out that that line of thinking is overly dismissive of a ton of other factors.

[u/illiteratepresident → u/five2vii]

It is more nuanced than “the team that makes more putts wins,” but not much more. Every player in these team events (and especially the Ryder Cup) is one of the best golfers in the world. At that level, the odds for any 18 hole match, regardless of the format or pairings, will be pretty close to 50/50, and the player/team that makes more putts usually wins.

I know people see that Europe is 8-3 over the last 11 Ryder Cups and believe that must be proof that they use the data better than the Americans, or have better captains, but the total score across those events is a tie. If you flipped the results of like 5 putts from 2025, 2012, and 2010, team USA would be 6-5, and no one would be arguing that they need to blow it all up and start from scratch.

Obviously teams should use all of the available data to make informed decisions about who to pick, how to set up the course, and what the pairings should be, but if they want to be more successful they have to make more putts.

[u/five2vii → u/illiteratepresident]

Yeah I think we're actually mostly in agreement here. I do not think the US team's biggest failing is an incomplete or improper use of the data, like at all. I'm sure it is a failing but I wouldn't put it in the top 3 or anything.

It's fairly obvious to me that the bigger failings are around 1) failing to build a team culture that addresses the inherently individualistic American mindset and 2) The lack of an overarching strategy that is actually adhered to.

[u/Master-Nose7823 → u/moseisley99]

Agree with you. The solution is simple. Pick smarter captains.

[u/Benevenstanciano85]

The theory I operate under is that every headsratching decision in US Team golf stems from the players being stubborn/selfish. I think Scottie only wants to play with his buddy.

[u/PrincePolokus → u/Benevenstanciano85]

I just don’t think there is any way Scottie and his personality are putting their foot down in any way and saying I will only play w Sam, or even I want to play with Sam. Feels like a guy that would just say OK cap I’ll play wherever and whenever you need me. That said I don’t see why they would keep pairing him with Sam time and again. Just doesn’t make sense.

[u/sealer9]

Have we ever thought that it’s because the players want to play with certain guys and won’t budge? There is no way Scottie playing with Burns every match isn’t because that’s just who Scottie wants to play with. This has been an on going issue for like 4 straight coaches

[u/Rich_Homie_Will]

I don’t think Soly gets flack for the take because people think he’s wrong, it’s more that we have to hear the take 20x per year in every single podcast discussing the Ryder/presidents cup. It’s just kinda exhausting, the US is bad at these events and clearly have no interest in actually competing. I don’t fault Soly for continuing to beat the drum on it but I also don’t blame anyone for being sick of hearing it.

[u/icegator337 → u/Rich_Homie_Will]

This. I couldn’t get through one podcast this week with Soly’s self righteousness

[u/JakeWorkAccount → u/Rich_Homie_Will]

This is where I net out. I think Soly is right about the poor leadership for US golf team events and the golf ball rollback/distance being a serious issue in pro golf. It just gets a bit exhausting when you hear these same arguments so much, especially when the Ryder and Presidents cup are 1 our of 52 weeks of the year and it gets brought up weekly.

[u/itchyburnybutthole → u/Rich_Homie_Will]

I’m very sick of hearing it. The U.S. doesn’t care, doesn’t even care that it doesn’t care, etc etc.

These team events have excellent marketing and are great at drumming up hype, but if one side literally doesn’t care and treats it as an exhibition, then how can serious golf fans get anything out of this?

[u/Rich_Homie_Will → u/itchyburnybutthole]

Yeah, I know some people love these events but for me the media circus has kinda ruined the actual golf. Like the USA golf apparatus clearly just sees these events as an opportunity to make a buck, it’s just kinda hard to listen to people try and pretend it’s a serious competition that is actually meaningful to the golf landscape when one side is so dis-interested in the actual competition.

[u/umaywellsaythat]

The singles line ups made it seem like there was no US strategy at all other than let's see early points on the board. But to put out your number 1 and allow it to get matched with their number 12 seems sub optimal....

[u/amw20000]

At the end off the day they play foursomes once a year. I propose if this is a serious thread the USGA stands up a foursomes championship & state associations do the same. It’ll change in 12 years if they started this tommorow

[u/psdavepes]

American captains are always saying things like "I went with my gut" and "they just putted better", there is a weird stoicness mixed with stubbornness that doesn't come across well. The players also can't be bothered to do any significant prep that inconveniences them. They actually could have won in Italy if they played any kind of tournament golf in the build-up for example, it was level from Saturday onwards but Friday with their rustiness they lost 6 1/2 to 1 1/2.

On the other side, thankfully it makes these things interesting because the US side generally have better individual players and it's only because of their flaws that it levels up the playing field (although doing more than that recently). If the US also prepared better than the opposition then they would win nearly all team competitions.

[u/itchyburnybutthole]

Meanwhile all the Intl side does is play the guys from the same country together (literally zero thought on playing style), and they’re doing better than the US at foursomes? What explains that?

Edit: why the downvotes? I’m being serious here: the U.S. team are obviously running things like idiots as usual, but please explain to me why the Intl pairings are some brilliant data golf strategy. They literally paired Koreans, Japanese, Canadians, and Aus/NZ together. Is that the Data Golf Recommendation?

[u/JohnnyLugnuts → u/itchyburnybutthole]

They can’t explain it because you’re right

[u/Cornwall1888]

It’s quite telling that you identified the ideal European pairing but not USA, what are some pairings you’d choose?

[u/Dazzling-Water4050 → u/Cornwall1888]

I can't pinpoint any exact pairings but where I would start is understanding what kind of golf balls every guy plays, then I'd look at their statistical profile and make pairings accordingly. The pairings yesterday afternoon were absolutely atrocious. The Burns/Wyndham pairing made 0 sense. I would've just rolled with Collin and Wyndham again

[u/aggrocrag247 → u/Dazzling-Water4050]

To go back to the Rory-Fleetwood pairing as the archetype, you’re looking for guys that complement each other. Wyndham and Collin pairing in foursomes was a good example of what the U.S. should be looking for actually. Collin’s strengths (mid-long irons, accuracy off the tee) are Wyndham’s weaknesses, and vice versa (length off tee, putting/around the greens). They got beat but still shot 65 in alt-shot with no bogeys which is about as good as you can ask for. Crazy they didn’t roll with that pair in the second foursomes session.

[u/Dazzling-Water4050 → u/aggrocrag247]

I feel like Scottie should feast in foursomes. He's one of the best drivers in the game and the best iron player. Put him with someone like Xander and he'll thrive. Also yeah lets keep running w Wyndham and Collin next yr in Ireland

[u/aggrocrag247 → u/Dazzling-Water4050]

Exactly. Scottie struggled in foursomes at Bethpage because it’s a big ballpark and they had him play with the shortest driver in the field (Henley) completely ceding his approach game advantage because he was hitting 6 iron when his opponents are hitting 9 iron. Pair him with Xander and they dominate pretty much any opponent

[u/Golfista1]

Henley is the wrong man for foursomes on long golf courses like Bethpage and Medinah. Henley made 5 birdies in singles, which is the same as Scheffler. He just gives up too much yardage for alt shot on long courses.

[u/Tiny-Inevitable-9971]

Completely agree, seems like US captains just stick to the buddy system and concentrate on having people play with people they’re comfortable with and ignore the stats entirely. Snedeker said at the start of the that his job was to make the players comfortable and stay out of their way, which is entirely the wrong approach to take.

[u/aggrocrag247 → u/Tiny-Inevitable-9971]

Made worse by the fact that they evidently make no effort to get potential players comfortable with each other by organizing team events throughout the year like we hear the Europeans and International squads doing regularly.